Reference Date: 03-September-2026

Dire food security situation, with risk of famine in 14 areas

According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis about 19.5 million people, over 40 percent of the analysed population, were projected to face IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) or worse levels of acute food insecurity between February and May 2026, including about 5 million people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and 135 000 people in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe). Although a nationwide projection for the June‑September lean season has not been carried out due to data gaps, 14 areas in North Darfur, South Darfur and South Kordofan states were considered at risk of famine during the lean season under a worst‑case scenario, involving heightened violence and increased displacements.

The main driver of the dire food security situation is the ongoing conflict. Since its start in April 2023, the conflict has severely disrupted livelihoods, destroyed key economic infrastructures, constrained humanitarian access and triggered large‑scale population displacements, with about 8.6 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) estimated as of end‑July 2026.

Concerns for 2026 cereal production due to dry weather conditions, insecurity and persisting input shortages

Planting of the 2026 cereal crops, for harvest from November 2026, has been concluded in mid‑August. The June‑September rainy season has been characterized so far by below‑average cumulative rainfall amounts over most cropping areas, affecting crop germination and establishment. Significant rainfall deficits occurred in southeastern key‑cropping areas. In Sennar and Gedaref states, which together account on average for about a quarter of the national output of sorghum, the main cereal staple, cumulative rainfall amounts between June and mid‑August 2026 were about 20 and 30 percent below the long‑term average, respectively. The resulting moisture deficits severely affected vegetation conditions and FAO’s Agricultural Stress Index (ASI), as mid‑August, indicated severe drought conditions in up to 40 and 70 percent of cropland, respectively, in Sennar and Gedaref states (ASI map).

Weather forecast for the remainder of the cropping season by the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF) point to high likelihood of below‑average rainfall amounts over most cropping areas, likely worsening vegetation conditions and yield prospects.

The ongoing conflict is expected to continue to severely affect agricultural activities, mainly through insecurity constraining access to fields, especially in the Greater Darfur and Greater Kordofan regions and Blue Nile State, while limited availability and high prices of key inputs, including fuel, as well as reduced access to agricultural credit, will further hinder production.

Below‑average cereal production in 2025 due to input shortages

The harvest of the 2025 coarse grains crops (sorghum and millet) was completed in January 2026, while the small, irrigated wheat crop was gathered in March 2026.

According to the government‑led 2025 Crop and Food Supply Assessment (CFSAM) national cereal production in 2025 (sorghum, millet and wheat) is estimated at about 5.2 million tonnes, about 22 percent below the output obtained in 2024 and 19 percent below the average of the previous five years. The low output mainly reflects the adverse impact of the conflict on agricultural operations, particularly through supply chain disruptions that reduced the availability and increased the prices of key agricultural inputs.

The June‑September rainy season was characterized by moderately below‑average rainfall amounts, but it had an even temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation, which mitigated the conflict‑related constraints.

Import requirements for the 2026 marketing year (January/December) are forecast at about 2.8 million tonnes, mainly wheat. However, the limited financial and logistical capacity of the country raise concerns about its capacity to secure the required import volumes.

Cereal prices at exceptionally high levels

Prices of domestically produced sorghum and millet seasonally increased in most monitored markets between January and June, rising on average by 65 and 42 percent, respectively. As of June, prices of sorghum and millet were, respectively, 66 and 37 percent above their already elevated levels a year earlier.

The exceptionally high prices reflect the reduced 2025 production and the impact of the ongoing conflict through high prices of inputs, trade disruptions and adverse macroeconomic conditions. Cereal prices have risen further following a recent surge in fuel prices due to supply chain disruptions linked to the Middle East crisis, which increased production and transport costs. The national average diesel fuel price doubled between March and June 2026, when it was three times its year‑earlier value.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Dashed lines on the maps represent approximate borderlines for which there may not yet be full agreement. The final boundary between the Republic of the Sudan and the Republic of South Sudan has not yet been determined. The final status of the Abyei area is not yet determined.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:

FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .