Latest publications
Book (stand-alone)
Food Outlook – Biannual report on global food markets – June 2025
12/06/2025
FAO’s latest assessments indicate a relatively optimistic outlook for food commodity markets, with production and trade of all commodities, except sugar,...
Book (series)
Food Outlook – Biannual Report on Global Food Markets - November 2024
14/11/2024
FAO’s latest assessments indicate differing trajectories across different commodities, with wheat, maize, and sugar production set to decline, while...
Book (stand-alone)
Food Outlook – Biannual Report on Global Food Markets - June 2024
13/06/2024
FAO’s latest forecasts point to increased production and higher stocks for several basic foodstuffs. However, global food production remains susceptible...
Book (series)
Food Outlook – Biannual Report on Global Food Markets - November 2023
09/11/2023
FAO's latest forecasts point to favourable production outlooks across most basic foodstuffs. However, global food production systems remain vulnerable...
Publications
Food Outlook - December 2006
04/12/2006
As 2006 draws to an end, the most prominent feature of the food and feed markets in 2006 has been the surge in the prices of cereals, in particular wheat and maize, which, by November, had reached levels not seen for a decade. Poor harvests in key producing countries and a fast growing demand for biofuel production have been the main drivers of the grain markets. Supply constraints also have dominated the rice economy.
Food Outlook - June 2006
05/06/2006
The recent months saw commodity markets as a whole becoming more volatile with a steady upward trend in prices. In agricultural markets, some important food and feed commodities gained on supply tightness and stronger demand while in the energy complex and metals, the tighter supply and demand balance resulted in a steep increase in prices. Amid political uncertainties and surging energy prices, agricultural markets over the past year have also had to confront abnormal incidences of natural disasters, ranging from devastating hurricanes to fast spreading animal diseases.
Food Outlook - December 2005
05/12/2005
FAO latest forecast for the 2005 world cereal output has been raised considerably since the September report to 2 005 million tonnes, 2.4 percent lower than last year’s record crop. Cereal crops have been satisfactory in most regions, except parts of Africa and South America. Planting of the 2006 cereal crop is underway in the main producing regions under generally favourable conditions so far. However, prospects are uncertain in Southern Africa and South America. Global cereal utilization is forecast to rise in 2005/06, with an expected increase in food consumption leading to some gains in the average per capita consumption in developing countries. By contrast, feed use of cereals is expected to decline. World cereal stocks are forecast to decrease, mostly reflecting smaller coarse grains inventory as a result of lower production this year. Cereal trade is expected to contract in 2005/06 following improved production in several major importing countries, mainly in Asia. International prices of cereals are generally higher than a year ago. Export prices have increased sharply in Argentina, reflecting reduced wheat production, and in South Africa as a result of high regional demand for maize. World milk output is expected to grow in 2005, but supplies from traditional exporters remain tight. International trade prices have stabilized at high levels supported by firm demand, particularly in Asia and North Africa. International prices of oilseeds have weakened in recent months following a substantial increase in production in 2004/05 (October/September), which has resulted in record oilseed carryover stocks. Global sugar production is forecast to rise in 2005 but sustained demand in developing countries will likely keep the global supply tight. International sugar prices remain firm. International banana prices have increased reflecting the impact of adverse weather in Latin America. In late November, the EU adopted a tariff-only system for banana imports due to start in January 2006. Any further extensive spread of avian flu could seriously disrupt global poultry and feed markets.
Food Outlook - September 2005
03/10/2005
FAO’s forecast of the 2005 world cereal output has been revised slightly downward since the previous report in June. Although lower than the record of 2004, the global cereal crop is still expected to be above the average of the past five years. Output of wheat and coarse grains is set to decline but that of rice is forecast to reach a record high. Most of the anticipated decrease in global cereal output in 2005 is in the developed countries, mainly reflecting smaller coarse grain crops. In developing countries, cereal production is expected marginally up from the good level of 2004. At the forecast level, global cereal production would not be sufficient to cover expected utilization in marketing year 2005/06, pointing to a larger drawdown in global cereal stocks than earlier anticipated. Contrary to earlier expectations, cereal inventories held by the major exporting countries are also forecast to decline. However, in the case of wheat and coarse grains, their share of the global totals would remain around the high levels of the previous season. FAO’s latest forecast of the world cereal trade in 2005/06 indicates a decline from the 2004/05 volume, mainly reflecting good crops in some of the main importing countries. Cereal food consumption in 2005/06 in developing countries is likely to keep pace with population growth, so the average per caput intake remains unchanged from 2004/05. Export prices of cereals have increased in the past months and are mostly somewhat above the levels of a year earlier. Despite recent outbreaks of Avian Influenza (AI) extending westwards from Asia into Europe, international meat prices have been rising since the beginning of 2005 supported by a strong recovery in meat consumption from the previous wave of disruption caused by animal disease in 2004. International coffee prices declined in recent months after having increased steadily in the past year. However, they are still well above their levels of a year ago. Import prices of banana picked-up in the first half of September in the United States. Negotiations on the rebinding of the EU tariff-quota system for banana imports continue under the WTO arbitration. Ocean freight rates that declined during the first half of 2005 have increased sharply since late August.
Food Outlook - June 2005
03/06/2005
Prospects for the 2005 global cereal crop remain favourable. Latest production forecasts indicate a decline from the record output of 2004 but not as large as anticipated earlier. FAO’s first forecast of world cereal trade in the 2005/06 marketing season points to a slight decrease from the revised 2004/05 level, mainly due to lower wheat import demand. Global cereal utilization is expected to increase somewhat in 2005/06, which coupled with the forecast decrease in production will result in a drawdown in global cereal stocks after a substantial build-up in 2004/05. However, stocks held by major exporting countries are anticipated to increase. Prices of cereals remain well below their levels of a year earlier. This mainly reflects large exportable supplies of wheat and coarse grains and for rice, seasonal downward pressure from the 2004 secondary crops harvests. World milk output is forecast to grow in 2005, mainly in developing countries, but prices remain high due to lower supplies from major exporting countries. A record 2004/05 oilcrop harvest is limiting the potential for increases in prices for oilseeds and meals, while prices for oils and fats are expected to remain firm due to strong demand and below average stock levels. Another good world pulse crop is expected in 2005, although somewhat lower than last year’s bumper harvest. World sugar production is forecast to expand in 2004/05 but to fall short of growing consumption. As a result, prices of sugar remain at high levels. Coffee prices that started to recover in late 2004 surged in the first quarter of 2005 and by late May were almost 60 percent higher than a year ago. Prices of fertilizers have continued to increase in the past months. Urea quotations by late May were between 74 and 90 percent above the corresponding period last year.
Food Outlook - April 2005
04/04/2005
Another good world cereal crop is forecast in 2005, although lower than the exceptional harvest in 2004. Dry weather in several Asian countries since late last year has negatively impacted the 2004 secondary paddy crop season, which is nearing its conclusion. Nevertheless, the 2004 aggregate rice production is still estimated to be the second highest on record. World cereal stocks at the end of crop seasons ending in 2005 are expected to be almost 10 percent higher than their opening levels. International prices of rice have increased following concerns about the secondary paddy season. By contrast, prices for wheat and coarse grains remain below last year reflecting large availabilities in the major exporting countries, generally favourable prospects for the 2005 crops and relatively slack demand. The forecast for global cereal trade in 2004/05 has been revised up since the previous report, mainly on account of higher wheat imports. Meat trade in 2005 is expected to recover from the exceptional decline in 2004 but market uncertainties persist, mainly over food safety concerns. World banana and sugar prices recovered in 2004, mainly reflecting sustained import demand.
Food Outlook - December 2004
03/12/2004
World cereal output in 2004 is estimated by FAO at a record 2 042 million tonnes, substantially more than the forecast in September and 8.4 percent up from 2003. Cereal production is forecast to exceed utilization in 2004/05, which would lead to an increase in stocks for the first time in five years. World cereal utilization in 2004/05 is forecast to rise by 2.4 percent from the previous season. Most of the increase is expected in feed usage of cereals, reflecting larger availabilities. World cereal stocks are forecast to rise to 441 million tonnes by the close of the 2004/05 seasons. The bulk of the increase will be in maize and wheat reserves in the major exporting countries. By contrast, rice inventories are expected to decline again. International wheat and coarse grains prices are generally lower than a year ago, but those for rice remain well above levels in 2003. Global cereal trade is forecast to decline in 2004/05, mostly reflecting reduced demand in the EU, which would more than offset an expected increase in imports by developing countries, China in particular. Global meat prices stabilized somewhat in late 2004, as import bans were lifted from previously disease afflicted areas and exportable supplies subsequently increased. Meat production and trade should continue to grow in 2005. International prices for dairy products rose throughout 2004, and by November, the FAO dairy price index reached its highest level since 1990. Upward price pressure is largely the result of growing international demand, especially for whole milk powder in developing countries. Oilseed prices attained record levels in the previous marketing season, but have fallen significantly since April, due mainly to a large crop in the United States. Firm sugar prices prevail on international markets, reflecting continuing strong growth in world sugar consumption, relative to output.
Food Outlook - September 2004
03/09/2004
FAO’s latest forecast for world cereal output in 2004 has been raised by 29 million tonnes since the previous report to 1 985 million tonnes, which puts it on par with the expected utilization in 2004/05. This will avert the need for another major drawdown in global cereal stocks after sharp declines in the past four years. World cereal utilization in 2004/05 is forecast at 1 985 million tonnes, 1.4 percent above the estimated utilization in 2003/04. Feed and industrial usage of coarse grains is likely to grow fastest. FAO’s forecast for world cereal stocks by the close of the seasons in 2005 has been raised significantly to just slightly below their opening level, after much sharper drops in each of the past four years. Desert Locust infestations are posing a threat to agricultural production in the Sahel this year. Widespread breeding and formation of swarms is reported throughout the Sahelian zone. Significant crop damage is already reported in some countries. Control operations are underway but need strengthening to prevent the situation from worsening. Global cereal trade is set to decline sharply in 2004/05 to 227.6 million tonnes, mostly reflecting reduced import demand for wheat and coarse grains because of good crops in several traditional importing countries. International cereal prices weakened in recent months, mostly due to favourable supply prospects and generally weaker demand. High sugar prices prevail on international markets, reflecting continuing strong growth in world sugar consumption, relative to output, and an anticipated fall in stocks worldwide.
Food Outlook - June 2004
04/06/2004
FAO’s latest forecast of global cereal production in 2004 is 1 956 million tonnes, a substantial increase from the previous year. However, despite a modest expected rise in utilization, the new 2004/05 marketing season may lead to a fifth consecutive annual drawdown of global cereal stocks. FAO’s first forecast of global cereal trade in 2004/05 stands at 229.7 million tonnes, 3 percent down from the previous year. The decline mostly reflects, good crop prospects in traditional importing countries, as well as a strong production recovery in Europe. In the case of rice, trade is also expected to be limited by tight supplies in major exporting countries. After rising for several months, international prices of most cereals eased back somewhat in recent weeks reflecting generally favourable prospects for the 2004 crops and, for rice, also the release of government stocks onto domestic markets in China and Thailand. Global cassava production is forecast to expand in 2004, alongside a sharp increase in trade. A tightening of feed grain supplies in China could stimulate cassava imports to the country and could further strengthen international prices. International meat prices are surging in 2004 as animal disease outbreaks in major meat exporting countries and resulting bans on imports from these areas are reducing exportable supplies. International prices for dairy products were well above average during the first-half of 2004, as a result of sustained import demand and limited availability of export supplies. For the remainder of the year, prices are expected to remain at or near their current high levels. International prices in the oilcrop complex have continued to rise strongly in the past few months, being strongly influenced by tight soybean supplies and by slower growth in palm oil production. World pulse production is forecast to reach a record 60 million tonnes in 2004, which could lead to increased consumption and trade during the year.
Food Outlook - April 2004
05/04/2004
World cereal production is forecast to increase in 2004 to 2 131 million tonnes, which would be some 2 percent up from last year and 3 percent above the average of the past five years. The bulk of the increase is expected in wheat, although rice output is also seen to rise significantly. By contrast, production of coarse grains is forecast to decrease marginally. Global cereal utilization is anticipated to rise further in 2003/04 to 1 971 million tonnes, up 1 percent from the previous year but still slightly below the 10-year trend. Global cereal stocks will fall sharply by the end of seasons in 2004. Despite an upward adjustment since the previous report in November, aggregate closing inventories are still forecast to be down by 18 percent from their opening levels. International cereal prices have strengthened since the previous report in November, reflecting tight market conditions. Food aid costs per unit are expected to increase due to generally tighter world cereal supplies, strong international prices and higher freight rates for 2003/2004. The world cereal import bill in 2003/04 is expected to rise by 2 percent from the previous year to about US$38 billion. Although a smaller volume of trade is forecast, this will be offset by higher international prices and a steep increase in ocean freight rates.
Food Outlook - November 2003
03/11/2003
FAO’s latest forecast for global cereal production in 2003 is 1 874 million tonnes, 2 percent more than in 2002 but still less than the expected utilization in 2003/04, which is forecast at 1 971 million tonnes. As a result, global cereal stocks are expected to be drawn down to 382 million tonnes. World cereal trade is forecast to fall significantly in 2003/04 to 227 million tonnes, the lowest level in 6 years. Most of this large decline is being driven by wheat and to a lesser extent by rice; trade in coarse grains is expected to increase slightly. Prices for most cereals remain under downward pressure. International wheat prices weakened during September and October, mostly influenced by the sharp reduction in global import demand. Export prices for nearly all types of coarse grains remained generally stable over the same period. Only international rice prices showed any significant signs of strengthening and continued to rally in all categories except for the lower quality Indica rice. A continued recovery in meat prices in the short-term is expected to prompt a slight rebound in meat production in 2004. The influence of trade restricting measures in major meat importing countries is likely to persist in 2004 limiting upward price movement. International prices for dairy products rose between August and October 2003, after being stable during the first half of the year. For the remainder of 2003, prices are expected to show a further moderate increase. While global output of oilcrops and products is expected to increase robustly in marketing season 2003/04, prices for oilseeds, and oils and fats should also increase with firm demand and low stocks. Prices of meals may fall under higher supplies and slow growth in feed demand. Record sugar production and surplus stocks will continue to pressure world sugar prices into the new year, as more finalized forecasts for 2002/03 indicate an additional 10.2 million tonnes of output.
Food Outlook - September 2003
05/09/2003
Prospects for world cereal output in 2003 have deteriorated since the previous report in June, following a widespread drought and heat-wave in Europe. As a result, the FAO forecast for world cereal production in 2003 has been reduced sharply, indicating that the amount of global cereal carryover stocks that could be drawn down in 2003/04 will be much larger than expected earlier, and the overall global supply-and-demand situation will be much tighter. FAO’s forecast for global cereal output in 2003 has been revised downward to 1 865 million tonnes, some 48 million tonnes below the previous forecast but still 33 million tonnes above last year’s reduced level. Wheat output is now expected to fall to its lowest level since 1995, while the recovery anticipated for coarse grains after last year’s below-average crop is not likely to be as large as expected earlier. The outlook for the 2003 paddy crop remains favourable and a recovery from last year’s poor output is still in prospect. World cereal utilization in 2003/04 is forecast to increase moderately by about 0.4 percent to 1 964 million tonnes, but would remain below the medium-term trend. While cereal food consumption is likely to keep pace with population growth, feed-use of cereals, most notably wheat, is now expected to decline. FAO’s forecast for world cereal carryover stocks in 2004 has been lowered significantly since the June report to 372 million tonnes, down almost 95 million tonnes, or 20 percent, from the previous season. Wheat is expected to account for the largest share of the overall decline during the current season, but inventories of both coarse grains and rice will also decline significantly. World cereal trade in 2003/04 is forecast to fall to a five-year low of just 227.5 million tonnes, which would be 11 million tonnes, or 5 percent, below the previous season. Reduced wheat shipments are expected to account for the bulk of the year-onyear decline in world cereal trade, following good crops in several importing countries. International wheat prices increased over the past two months, mostly in response to a deterioration of prospects for the European crop. In the maize market, prices have remained under downward pressure due to good crop prospects in several major producing countries. International rice prices have risen steadily since May in response to tightening supplies in some major exporting countries.
Food Outlook - June 2003
04/06/2003
FAO’s latest forecast for global cereal production in 2003 and the first forecast for utilization in 2003/04 indicate that output will remain below the expected level of utilization and stocks will have to be drawn down again in 2004 for the fourth consecutive year. FAO’s forecast for global cereal output in 2003 has been revised upward to 1 914 million tonnes, some 4 percent up from the previous year’s below-average level. Growth in wheat output will be less than expected in the previous report but the forecasts for coarse grains and rice have risen. World cereal utilization in 2003/04 is forecast to increase by about 1.4 percent to 1 981 million tonnes. Cereal food consumption is likely to keep pace with population growth and feed use is expected to increase modestly, mainly on the expectation of a strong production rebound in several developed countries. FAO’s first forecast of global trade in cereals in 2003/04 stands at 231 million tonnes, some 8 million tonnes down from the estimated volume in 2002/03. Trade in nearly all major cereals is expected to decrease with the most significant decline projected for wheat. International prices for most cereals have firmed in the past two months, but the outlook for the coming months is mixed. While wheat markets could weaken, maize prices are expected to remain mostly stable, while rice prices could increase. Global cassava production is forecast to increase in 2003 and trade could also expand. International cassava prices have continued strengthening, reflecting buoyant demand in China. The slow-down in price growth observed in the oilseed complex in recent months is expected to be short-lived; the fundamentals for the season as a whole suggest that the growth in global supplies is expected to fall short of the anticipated rise in global demand, thus inducing prices to strengthen further. Global production of pulses in 2003 is forecast to grow by 2 percent from last year, with expected sharp increases in some major exporting countries. This is anticipated to exert downward pressure on the prices of most tradable pulses towards the end of the year. Several record late-season sugar crops have led to larger global output in 2002/03 than earlier expected and may keep prices under downward pressure in the near term.
Food Outlook - April 2003
04/04/2003
FAO’s first forecast of world cereal production in 2003 is 1 895 million tonnes, 62 million tonnes up from the poor 2002 harvest and above the average of the past five years. The outputs of both wheat and coarse grains are forecast to increase by about 4 percent to 591.5 million tonnes and 908 million tonnes respectively, while the rice crop (milled basis) is anticipated to recover by 2 percent to about 395 million tonnes. The forecast for utilization in 2002/03 has been lowered and now stands marginally below the level of the previous year. The contraction mostly reflects expectations of a reduced utilization as feed. If confirmed, this would be the first year that overall cereal consumption would depart from the rising trend prevailing since 1995. Despite the lack of growth in utilization, the drawdown in global cereal reserves necessary to bridge the gap between production and consumption in 2002/03 is expected to be huge, at almost 108 million tonnes. Total cereal food aid shipments in 2001/02 fell to 7.4 million tonnes, 2.2 million tonnes less than in the previous season, and the smallest level since 1997/98, with the decline affecting nearly all regions. In response to the crisis in Iraq, the UN has appealed for some US$2.2 billion, to assist the Iraqi people over a six-month period until the end of September. Of the total, US $1.3 billion would be required to cover food needs. International prices for most cereals remain under downward pressure. Generally favourable prospects for 2003 crops have contributed to a further weakening of markets, which were already under pressure from large export availabilities in several non-traditional exporting countries. International prices for dairy products continued their recovery during the first three months of 2003. Prices are expected to show further moderate increases, at least until mid-year. International meat prices are expected to rise in 2003 in response to tightening meat supplies. However, developments in the market will depend greatly on the impact of trade restricting measures likely to be introduced by major importing countries.
Food Outlook - February 2003
03/02/2003
Global cereal output in 2002 is estimated at 1 838 million tonnes, slightly up from the forecast in December, but still 3.3 percent down from the previous year. However, given the expected expansion in cereal utilization in 2002/03, world cereal stocks for crop years ending in 2003 could plunge to their lowest level since the early 1970s. Prospects for 2003 cereal production are mixed. Early indications for the 2003 wheat crops point to a likely increase in global output. The first 2003 coarse grain crops are already planted, and the paddy season is well advanced in many southern hemisphere countries. Moderate El Niño persists, adding uncertainty to the outcome of the 2003 cereal harvests. Based on the latest indications, 36 countries in the world are experiencing severe food shortages and require international food assistance. The forecast for world cereal trade in 2002/03 has been raised to 240 million tonnes, but still remains 3 million tonnes below the previous year’s level. The bulk of the decline is on account of smaller wheat trade, while that of coarse grains is forecast to increase marginally. For rice, early indication for trade in 2003 points to a small decline from the high level in 2002. International prices for most cereals have weakened further since November, as non-traditional exporters continued to shift more of their domestic surpluses onto the world market. Total world fish production in 2001 is estimated at 129.3 million tonnes, slightly below the previous year’s level. Total world trade in fish and fishery products (in export value) is estimated to remain virtually unchanged in 2001, after a strong expansion in the previous year.
Food Outlook - December 2002
02/12/2002
Latest information confirms a sharp drop in global cereal production in 2002, to 1 833 million tonnes. As a result of this, and a marginal rise expected in total cereal utilization in 2002/03, world cereal stocks for crop years ending in 2003 are forecast to plunge sharply, by 110 million tonnes from their opening level, to 466 million tonnes. The number of countries facing severe food emergencies worldwide stands at 39. Serious food shortages have emerged in eastern Africa, and the food situation remains critical in southern Africa. World cereal trade in 2002/03 is forecast at 236 million tonnes, 5 million tonnes below the previous year’s record level. The decline comes exclusively from a sharp reduction in wheat trade, as trade in coarse grains is expected to rise a bit and the early prospects for rice trade in 2003 point to a similar volume to that of 2002. International prices for most cereals weakened over the past few weeks, as nontraditional exporters continued to shift more of their domestic surpluses onto the world market, taking advantage of the sharp reduction in exportable supplies among traditional exporting countries. Global pulse production is forecast to rise in 2002 but poor crops in key producing and exporting countries will likely keep the global supply tight. Smaller exportable supplies are expected to result in reduced trade and higher international prices. Global output of oils/fats and oilmeals/cakes is expected to increase only marginally during the 2002/03 season and is certain to be surpassed by demand, especially for oils/fats. The resulting decline in the stocks-to-use ratio is forecast to provide upward support to the oilseeds complex prices during the season. International prices for dairy products began to recover in the latter part of 2002, after falling for most of the year. Prices are expected to increase during the first-half of 2003 and possibly beyond. FAO forecasts world sugar production in 2002/03 at almost 141 million tonnes, 6 million tonnes up from the previous season. Expectations of a considerable global surplus of sugar may result in weaker prices in the coming months.
Food Outlook - October 2002
02/10/2002
The global supply and demand balance for cereals is pointing to a tighter situation in 2002/03 than was anticipated earlier in the wake of deteriorating crop prospects in a number of major producing countries. Based on the production and consumption forecasts for 2002/03, world cereal stocks for crop years ending in 2003 are expected to plunge sharply. The humanitarian crisis in southern Africa is deepening as international response has so far seriously fallen short of needs. Globally, 32 countries are presently facing food emergencies and need food assistance. FAO’s forecast of global cereal output in 2002 has been revised downward to 1 830 million tonnes, 3 percent down from last year and the smallest crop since 1995. On latest indications, output of wheat is forecast at 563 million tonnes, down 3 percent, that of coarse grains at 874 million tonnes would be down by close to 4 percent, while rice production, at 394 million tonnes (milled basis), would be down by 1.4 percent. World cereal trade (exports) in 2002/03 is forecast at 236 million tonnes, which would be some 4 million tonnes below the previous season’s record volume. The expected decline is exclusively on account of a sharp contraction expected in world wheat trade, while trade in coarse grains and rice is expected to rise. World cereal utilization is forecast at 1 940 million tonnes in 2002/03, which would represent a negligible growth from the previous year, and stand about 10 percent, below the 10-year trend. World cereal stocks by the end of the crop seasons ending in 2003 are forecast to fall sharply to 466 million tonnes, 108 million tonnes down from their already reduced opening level. Apart from poor crops in several important producing countries, the continuing policy of significant stock reductions in China, would still account for a large proportion of the total anticipated decline in stocks at the global level. International wheat and coarse grain prices have increased in recent months, fuelled by growing evidence of tighter exportable grain supplies in traditional grain exporting countries. By contrast, for rice, large supplies in major exporting countries are keeping prices under pressure. FOOD AND AGRICULTUR
Food Outlook - July 2002
02/07/2002
The new 2002/03 marketing season could mark the beginning of a much tighter supply and demand situation for cereals: opening stocks are smaller than in the previous season, production is forecast to fall and consumption is expected to rise. A total of 31 countries throughout the world are currently experiencing severe food shortages and require international food assistance. A new food crisis has emerged in southern Africa, following two successive years of poor harvests in most countries of the subregion, calling for immediate international response. FAO’s forecast of global cereal output in 2002 has been revised downward to 1 878 million tones, considerably less than expectations in May, and marginally below last year’s level. On latest indications, output of wheat is forecast at 578 million tonnes, down 0.6 percent, while that of coarse grains would be down 0.3 percent at 903 million tones. Production of rice is seen to remain virtually unchanged from the previous year, at 397 million tonnes (milled basis). World cereal trade in 2002/03 is forecast at 235 million tonnes, down 1 million tonnes from 2001/02, mostly due to smaller wheat and rice imports, while trade in coarse grains is expected to increase slightly. A sharp reduction in imports by the developed countries would be almost offset by a large increase for the developing countries. World cereal utilization is forecast to reach 1 938 million tones in 2001/02, 1.4 percent up from the previous year’s level. Early indications for 2002/03 indicate that the growth in cereal utilization could continue but at a slower pace. World cereal stocks by the end of the crop seasons in 2003 are forecast to fall sharply to 498 million tonnes, 71 million tonnes down from their already reduced opening level. At the global level, the anticipated decline in wheat inventories would be most significant but reductions in coarse grains and rice stocks are also expected to be substantial. International cereal prices moved up in the past two months. Wheat prices rose considerably in response to poorer crop prospects in a number of major exporting countries. Maize prices have also strengthened, largely reflecting faster pace in import purchases in recent weeks. Rice prices rose slightly, reflecting tighter supplies in some exporting countries and policy measures in others.
Food Outlook - May 2002
03/05/2002
FAO’s first forecasts for cereal production in 2002 and utilization in 2002/03 indicate that output will remain below the expected level of utilization and stocks will have to be drawn down again in 2003 for the fourth consecutive year. However, supplies are expected to remain ample, particularly of wheat and coarse grains. Despite a generally favourable global food outlook, some 34 countries around the world are experiencing food shortages. The emerging situation in southern Africa gives particular cause for concern. World cereal output in 2002 is forecast at 1 905 million tonnes (including rice in milled equivalent), up 1.1 percent from 2001. Output of wheat is forecast at 603 million tonnes, up 3.7 percent, while that of coarse grains is seen to rise marginally to 910 million tonnes. By contrast, production of rice is tentatively forecast at 392 million tonnes (milled basis), down 1.1 percent from 2001. FAO’s first forecast of world cereal trade in 2002/03 is 236 million tonnes, 1 million tonnes down from the estimated volume in 2001/02. Global imports of wheat are forecast to decline in the 2002/03 July/June trade year while those of coarse grains are expected to increase. Rice trade in 2003 is tentatively forecast to decrease. International wheat and coarse grain prices remain under downward pressure, on the basis of large exportable supplies and generally favourable production prospects. By contrast, rice prices have held steady notwithstanding the arrival of new crop supply on the market. Meat supplies on international markets are expected to rebound in 2002 as animal disease restrictions are lifted for previously afflicted meat exporting countries. A return to normal consumption patterns should favour increased trade, but large supplies of all meats are expected to dampen any significant upward price movement. International prices for dairy products have fallen substantially since mid-2001, with the result that prices for most dairy products are currently at levels rarely seen over the past decade. It would appear that the decline has bottomed out and that prices for some dairy products may rise during the second-half of the year. Growth in global output of oils and fats is forecast to slow down in 2001/02, but could increase for oilcakes and meals. While international prices for oils and fats are expected to recover further from the previous season, the oilcakes and meals sector could suffer downward price pressure as supplies increase relatively more than demand. World pulse production is forecast to grow strongly in 2002, and trade could also increase, but prices will likely decline as exportable supplies are expected to be large. Sugar production is forecast to increase again in 2002/03, signaling another season of excess supply and potentially weaker prices.
Food Outlook - February 2002
04/02/2002
Global cereal output in 2001 is provisionally estimated at 1 880 million tonnes (including rice in milled terms), slightly up from the forecast in December and 1.2 percent up on the previous year. However, with global cereal utilization in 2001/02 still forecast to be well above this level at 1 935 million tonnes, the global cereal stocks will be drawn down significantly.