• Analyse the major economic, technological, demographic, environmental and geopolitical drivers shaping agrifood systems and global development.
• Develop strategic foresight analyses and scenarios to explore alternative futures.
• Identify transformation triggers and policy levers that can accelerate agrifood systems transformation.
• Support the development and implementation of the FAO Global Roadmap and other long-term transformation frameworks.
• Quantify pathways that reconcile food security, climate action, economic development and environmental sustainability objectives.
• Measure the current contribution of the bioeconomy to employment, value addition, gross domestic product and economic growth.
• Assess the future economic potential of the bioeconomy under alternative technological, policy and investment scenarios.
• Conduct in-depth analyses of emerging technologies and value chains, including biofuels, bioinputs, biomaterials and food-related innovations such as precision fermentation.
• Explore the water–energy–food nexus and its implications for agrifood systems transformation.
• Analyse trade-offs among competing uses of biomass and their implications for food security, livelihoods, biodiversity, climate and natural resources.
• Identify policy frameworks, governance mechanisms and investment priorities required to enable economically viable, socially inclusive and environmentally sustainable bioeconomy transitions.

We combine strategic foresight, systems thinking, economics, integrated modelling and political economy analysis to understand how agrifood systems may evolve and how transformation can be accelerated.

A central component is scenario analysis, which explores alternative futures under different assumptions regarding demographics, economic growth, climate change, technology, diets, trade and natural resources. Innovative expert elicitation methods and Bayesian network approaches are used to build scenarios, while backcasting approaches help identify the actions required today to achieve desired long-term outcomes. We use the MIRAGRODEP multisectoral, multicountry dynamic global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, combined with a macroeconomic econometric model, to explore future scenarios.

For the bioeconomy, we combine economic accounting, structural economic analysis, biomass systems analysis and scenario modelling to assess the role of renewable biological resources in future economies. We quantify impacts on growth, employment, value addition, trade and resource use, including land, water and carbon, while identifying trade-offs across food, feed, energy, industrial and ecosystem demands.

Political economy analysis and stakeholder mapping complement quantitative approaches by identifying the incentives, institutions and governance arrangements required to turn long-term visions into feasible policy pathways.

Our analyses draw on global and national datasets covering agricultural production, trade, employment, land, water, energy, emissions, biodiversity, innovation, income and demographic trends. Key sources include FAOSTAT, national statistical systems, geospatial information, economic accounts, and international trade and environmental databases.

We generate projections and scenarios that help countries assess future risks, opportunities and resource requirements under alternative development trajectories.

Our strategic foresight work provides the long-term analytical foundation for the FAO Reviewed Strategic Framework 2022-31, its reviews, the Medium-Term Plan, the Programme of Work and Budget, and future updates of the programme priority areas. It is developed in close collaboration with the Office of Strategy, Programme and Budget (OSP) and supports all FAO’s Four Betters by anticipating emerging risks and opportunities.

Under Better Production, it contributes to innovation for sustainable agricultural production, digital agriculture and blue transformation by assessing how technology, innovation and new production systems may reshape agrifood systems. Under Better Nutrition, it supports healthy diets for all, transparent markets and trade and reducing food loss and waste through analysis of future food demand, diets, consumer behaviour and resource allocation. Under Better Environment, it directly contributes to climate change mitigating and adapted agrifood systems, bioeconomy for sustainable food and agriculture and biodiversity and ecosystem services for food and agriculture by evaluating alternative pathways for land use, biomass production, emissions reduction and ecosystem stewardship. Under Better Life, it contributes to inclusive rural transformation, resilient agrifood systems and scaling up investment by identifying future economic opportunities, territorial development pathways and strategic investment priorities.

In addition, the pillar plays a central role in several corporate initiatives, including the FAO Global Roadmap and the Analytical Support Mechanism for Country Programming and Evidence (SCOPE).

This pillar contributes in particular to Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 1, SDG 2, SDG 7, SDG 8, SDG 9, SDG 12, SDG 13 and SDG 15 by helping countries prepare for future challenges and identify pathways towards sustainable, resilient and inclusive agrifood systems. Strategic foresight explores possible futures, the FAO Global Roadmap defines desirable futures, and bioeconomy analysis identifies how innovation and biomass-based solutions can support their achievement while managing economic, social and environmental trade-offs.

Strategic foresight is a cross-cutting function that relies on broad collaboration across FAO. Future scenario development is guided by an FAO-wide Foresight Expert Group, bringing together experts from all Headquarters units and all Regional Offices. Given the breadth of the ten domains of the FAO Roadmap, the process also incorporates contributions from all technical divisions, ensuring that the work reflects the full range of agrifood systems challenges and opportunities. A particularly close partnership is maintained with the Office of Climate Change, Biodiversity and Environment (OCB), as co-lead of the programme priority area on bioeconomy, linking the quantitative analysis of the Agrifood Economics and Policy Division (ESA) with the engagement and project support work done by the rest of the organization.

The series of reports The future and food and agriculture is FAO’s main global-level strategic foresight product and represent the guiding strategic foresight framework for its core workplan activities. This global public good is enriched by a network of FAO focal points with different technical expertise, as well as by an external, multidisciplinary expert advisory group.

Recent developments have increased the need for strategic foresight across levels and sectors. As repeatedly pointed out by the United Nations Secretary-General, many Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are not on track to be achieved. A series of major shocks, including the post-2008 financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine and ongoing geopolitical and geoeconomic tensions, have exposed persistent and systemic challenges that are difficult to overcome. These developments, combined with weak economic performance, stalled progress on multilateral agendas, entrenched short-term incentives, political economy challenges and growing power asymmetries that distort development processes and hinder socioeconomic convergence among countries, underscore the need for stronger future-looking and long-term thinking. This is critical to better anticipate risks, navigate uncertainty and shape more resilient and sustainable development pathways at different geographical, sectoral and thematic levels. Based on growing interest in strategic foresight from FAO and Member States, and in response to calls from the 28th Committee on Agriculture to reinforce strategic foresight capacities and activities, FAO has strengthened the strategic foresight work of the Agrifood Economics and Policy Division, including The future of food and agriculture framework and methodology. To further increase its relevance and visibility, FAO actively engages with the strategic foresight community, contributing to various networks, including the UN Futures Lab, the UN Foresight Community of Practice and the Foresight for Food Network.

RELEVANT LINKS

• WEBPAGE: The future of food and agriculture
• REPORT (2022): The future of food and agriculture – Drivers and triggers for transformation
• REPORT (2018): The future of food and agriculture – Alternative pathways to 2050
• REPORT (2017): The future of food and agriculture – Trends and challenges

The FAO Global Roadmap was launched in 2023 to equip countries with a policy framework and the required quantitative tools to achieve food security and nutrition in the context of climate action and nature. To achieve the 2030 Agenda and longer-term objectives, the world needs sufficient sustainable agricultural productivity growth, greater equity and substantial investments in agrifood systems. To make this happen, coordination is needed across countries, systems, governance bodies and key actors.

This is why the FAO Global Roadmap brings together three broad groups of actors: governments and public institutions at the global, national or subnational level; private-sector stakeholders, including farmers, agrifood companies and investors; and civil society organizations, in particular researchers, youth and advocacy groups. These actors play three complementary roles. They set direction through policy and governance. They drive implementation through investment and innovation. They enable transformation through knowledge, capacity and partnerships.

To support coordination, the FAO Global Roadmap provides a framework of 10 domains and 120 actions that are tailored to the realities and needs of each country. To effectively monitor progress at both national and international levels, it provides a set of milestones and clear goals.

The overall development of the FAO Global Roadmap follows three tracks: the policy and governance track, in which a comprehensive policy landscape and coherence analysis is conducted; the science and evidence track, which collects existing evidence and best practices; and the economic modelling and costing track that builds on the policy analysis. It uses advanced modelling to translate country priorities into scenarios. These scenarios help measure trade-offs, potential gains and the conditions needed to make sustainable investments bankable.

Based on this analysis, a country can develop a clear and targeted investment plan and policy agenda to attract the funding it needs. Through this process, we ensure that the FAO Global Roadmap is realistic, country-based and, ultimately, country-owned.

Since its launch in 2023, the following countries have become leading countries of the FAO Global Roadmap: Benin, Denmark, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Indonesia, Kenya, Morocco and Viet Nam. Working across sectors, these countries adapt the FAO Global Roadmap to their needs and shape its implementation through concrete national experiences.

The FAO Global Roadmap is hosted at the Agrifood Economics and Policy Division under the overall leadership of the FAO Chief Economist. It draws on the expertise of the Division’s various areas of work, tools, flagships and high-level publications. It anchors its quantification arm in the state-of-the-art modelling capacities uniquely hosted at ESA. The FAO Global Roadmap serves as a platform through which the Division's different areas of work converge and reinforce one another. This integrated approach enables the Division to support countries with coherent, multidisciplinary solutions to complex agrifood systems challenges.

RELEVANT LINKS

• IN BRIEF: Achieving SDG 2 without breaching the 1.5 °C threshold: A global roadmap, Part 1 – How agrifood systems transformation through accelerated climate actions will help achieving food security and nutrition, today and tomorrow
• INTERACTIVE STORY: Achieving SDG 2 without breaching the 1.5 °C threshold: A global roadmap
• VIDEO: FAO Chief Economist presents “Achieving SDG 2 without breaching the 1.5 °C threshold: a global roadmap”

The bioeconomy can be a powerful catalyst for addressing the climate crisis and accelerating the transition towards more sustainable agrifood systems through the efficient and responsible use of biological resources. As the world seeks to phase down its reliance on fossil resources, the bioeconomy offers an alternative source of renewable carbon for food, feed, energy, chemicals, materials and industrial products. For this reason, FAO's strategic foresight work identifies the bioeconomy as a key component of the "trading off for sustainability" pathway and a major driver of long-term structural transformation.

Within this framework, the Agrifood Economics and Policy Division (ESA) analyses the role that bioeconomy development can play in supporting sustainable economic growth, job creation, value addition and rural transformation. Our work examines both the current contribution and future potential of bioeconomy sectors, helping governments and stakeholders understand how bio-based innovations can support economic diversification while contributing to food security, climate action and environmental sustainability.

The term “bioeconomy”, as defined by the Global Bioeconomy Summit of 2020, refers to the production, utilization, conservation and regeneration of biological resources, together with the associated knowledge, science, technology and innovation, to provide sustainable products, processes and services across the economy. Examples include biopesticides and biofertilizers, bio-based plastics, sustainable bioenergy, the valorization of crop residues and food waste, and emerging food technologies such as precision fermentation.

FAO sees the bioeconomy not only as a source of nutritious and safe food for a growing global population, but also as a foundation for replacing fossil carbon in sectors such as energy, transportation, chemistry and construction while creating new development opportunities and reducing waste and environmental pressures.

A key objective of ESA's work is to quantify alternative bioeconomy pathways and assess their implications under different technological, policy and investment scenarios. This includes deep-dive analyses of emerging sectors such as biofuels, bioinputs, biomaterials and precision fermentation, examining their potential contributions to economic growth, employment, trade and resource efficiency. These assessments help countries understand both the opportunities and the risks associated with different development trajectories.

Because biomass is finite and already supports food security, livelihoods and ecosystem services, bioeconomy development inevitably involves trade-offs. Increasing demand for biomass for industrial, energy or material uses can affect food production, land use, water resources, biodiversity and rural livelihoods. ESA therefore assesses the economic, social and environmental implications of competing biomass uses and identifies the policies, incentives, governance arrangements and sustainability safeguards needed to ensure that bioeconomy development remains inclusive, resilient and environmentally sustainable.

FAO is also strengthening the evidence base for bioeconomy policy through the identification and classification of bioeconomy-related strategies, policies and investments within the Food and Agriculture Policy Decisions Analysis (FAPDA) tool. This work contributes to a growing global policy agenda around bioeconomy and supports countries in designing coherent policy frameworks that foster innovation, facilitate sustainable trade in bio-based products and attract responsible public and private investments.

FAO is the first United Nations agency to have developed a strategic priority programme on bioeconomy, endorsed by its Members in 2021, and continues to position itself at the forefront of global discussions on bioeconomy transformation. Through analytical work, strategic foresight, policy dialogue and knowledge generation, FAO supports countries in understanding how the transition towards more bio-based economies can contribute to more efficient, inclusive, resilient and sustainable agrifood systems.

RELEVANT LINKS

• TECHNICAL STUDY: Opportunities for youth in the bioeconomy – Opportunities and barriers for youth employment and entrepreneurship in the emerging bioeconomy sectors
• TECHNICAL REPORT: Youth-led initiatives in the bioeconomy – Youth leading the way towards a sustainable future
• WEBSITE: Sustainable bioeconomy for agrifood systems transformation
• INTERACTIVE STORY: Bioeconomy 101

The FAO Strategic Foresight Network (FSFN) builds on the informal network linked to The future of food and agriculture series, which enabled foresight practitioners within FAO to meet and share knowledge and experience. The FSFN is coordinated by a Steering Committee chaired by the FAO Agrifood Economics and Policy Division (ESA), represented by its Director and the “shaping agrifood futures through strategic foresight and bioeconomy transformation” pillar, reflecting ESA’s leadership role on the corporate strategic foresight processes. The FSFN will strengthen coordination and information-sharing across strategic foresight activities undertaken by various units across FAO, increase synergies and complementarities, avoid duplication of efforts, overcome silos and ad hoc initiatives, support capacity building, and ultimately increase the visibility and impact of FAO’s foresight work within FAO and with countries.

RELEVANT LINKS

• WEBPAGE: The future of food and agriculture