Why build long-term scenarios for food and agriculture?
Permanent and universal food and nutrition security. The achievement of permanent and universal food and nutrition security in the future relies on the availability of adequate, safe and nutritious food and the possibility for all to access and utilize it. This requires implementing long-term, inclusive socio-economic systems that ensure adequate earning opportunities for all, within which sustainable food systems can develop.
Anticipated evidence for decision-making. The realization of inclusive and sustainable food systems that ensure permanent and universal food and nutrition security requires appropriate strategies, policies and programmes. Building and analysing long-term scenarios for food and agriculture provides anticipated evidence for decision-makers and other stakeholders on alternative options for achieving these desired developmental objectives.
Development challenges ahead. The analysis of long-term, forward-looking scenarios is particularly important in view of the challenges we face today. Population growth and shifts to more protein-rich diets and bioenergy push up global agricultural demand, while human-induced climate change puts further stress on already constrained land and water resources, jeopardizing production potential. In addition, rising income inequalities may hamper earning opportunities and access to food. Long-term scenarios help to assess and address these challenges to ensure permanent and universal food and nutrition security.
FAO’s findings in Global Perspective Studies
FAO has carried out long-term analyses of global food production and consumption since the early 1960s. Popular publications include the series World Agriculture: towards 20XX.
Achieving Zero Hunger - The critical role of investments in social protection and agriculture (second edition)
This paper provides estimates of investment costs, both public and private, required to eliminate chronic dietary energy deficits, or to achieve zero hunger by 2030. This target is consistent with achieving both the Sustainable Development Goal 2, to eliminate hunger by 2030, and the Sustainable Development Goal 1, to eradicate poverty. The study adopts a reference 'baseline' scenario, reflecting a business as usual situation, to estimate the additional investment requirements. In this scenario, around 650 million people will still suffer from hunger in 2030.