Implications of the Middle East conflict on agrifood systems

Live broadcast

Background

Recent developments in the Persian Gulf, beginning in February 2026, have generated pressures on global energy, fertilizer, and agrifood systems. A central element has been the disruption of trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic maritime corridor connecting major Gulf energy producers with international markets.

Under normal conditions, this strait channels nearly 20 million barrels per day of crude oil and refined products, equivalent to approximately one quarter of global seaborne oil trade, as well as significant volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and fertilizers. The observed restrictions have affected the fluidity of these exchanges, creating tensions in international markets.

As a result, increased volatility has been observed in energy prices and key agricultural inputs, with effects transmitted to agrifood systems worldwide. These impacts are reflected, among other aspects, in higher production costs, pressure on food prices, and risks to food security, particularly in countries with high import dependency.

In the case of Latin America and the Caribbean, the situation has a dual dimension. On one hand, the region plays a relevant role as a global food supplier; on the other, it faces challenges related to its dependence on imported strategic inputs and its exposure to volatility in international markets.

This context creates a scenario of uncertainty, highlighting the importance of understanding the transmission channels of these shocks and their potential implications for agrifood systems, both globally and regionally.

Justification

The current scenario underscores the importance of fostering technical exchange spaces that enhance understanding of global dynamics and their regional implications. This event aims to contribute to a well-informed, comprehensive, and action-oriented dialogue, with a particular focus on Latin America and the Caribbean.

Objectives

Analyze the implications of recent disruptions in global markets and agrifood systems, with emphasis on Latin America and the Caribbean.

Examine structural and contextual factors influencing Latin America and the Caribbean’s dependence on fossil fuels and international fertilizer markets, as well as their possible implications for agrifood systems.

Identify public policy guidelines that help mitigate risks and strengthen resilience across different time horizons for the region in the context of the Middle East conflict.

Participant Profile

Authorities and technical teams from ministries of agriculture, economy, energy, and planning of LAC countries.

Representatives of international and regional organizations.

Representatives of multilateral development banking institutions.

Academia and research centers.

Private sector linked to agrifood value chains.

Civil society organizations.

Expected Outcomes

Strengthening of a shared regional vision regarding the implications of global disruptions on agrifood systems in Latin America and the Caribbean, among key public, multilateral, and technical stakeholders.

Establishment of a high-level dialogue to facilitate the exchange of strategic perspectives on possible policy responses and priority actions in the current international context.

Identification of guidelines and priority areas that may inform decision-making processes, regional cooperation, and future initiatives aimed at strengthening the resilience of agrifood systems in the region.