GIEWS - Special Alert No. 338 - Global, 26 May 2017
26/05/2017
Tilapia lake virus (TiLV) poses a great threat to the tilapia sector. Tilapias are farmed globally and are the second most important aquaculture species in terms of volumes produced, providing a key source of affordable animal protein, income to fishfarmers and fishers, and domestic and export earnings. TiLV has been confirmed in some countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America. It is likely that TiLV may have a wider distribution than is known today and its threat to tilapia farming at the gl obal level is significant. While there is no public health concern for this pathogen, there is a significant risk of TiLV being translocated both inter- and intra-continentally through the movement of infected live tilapias in the absence of appropriate biosecurity measures. Tilapia producing countries need to be vigilant and take appropriate risk management measures (e.g. enhanced diagnostic testing of imported stocks and unexplained tilapia mortalities and reporting to biosecurity authoriti es, active surveillance, public information campaigns and contingency plans) to reduce the further spread and potential socio-economic impacts of this emerging disease.
Special Report - FAO/WFP Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission to South Sudan - 26 May 2017
26/05/2017
An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM) visited South Sudan from 30 November to 12 December 2016 to estimate cereal production during 2016 and assess the overall food security situation. The CFSAM reviewed the findings of several crop assessment missions conducted at planting and harvest time in the different agro-ecological zones of the country from May to December 2016. As during 2014 and 2015, all assessment missions were carried out by a Task Force team that comprised s taff from the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Cooperatives and Rural Development (MAFCRD), the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and FAO. Task Force team members have been trained during the last years to conduct rapid assessments using established protocols and techniques, such as driving and walking transects, scoring standing crops according to yield and livestock according to body condition, perform key informant interviews and farmer case studies. In addition, supported by the FAO AFIS project, twenty County Crop Monitoring Committees (CCMC) have been formed in 2016, with a view to extending the responsibility of collecting more objective data at local level.
Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Bulletin #4, 10 May 2017
10/05/2017
International wheat prices generally declined in April, on account of ample supplies and generally favourable outlook for the 2017 harvest. Export prices of maize remained under downward pressure, mainly reflecting expectations of bumper crops in Southern Hemisphere countries. By contrast, international rice prices increased, supported by a rebound in trade activity, especially due to accelerated sales to countries of the Near East. In East Africa, cereal prices rose further in April and reached record or near‑record levels in most countries. Prices were underpinned by tight supplies, following drought-reduced 2016 second season outputs, and uncertain prospects for the upcoming 2017 harvests due to drier‑than‑average conditions and armyworm infestation affecting key‑growing areas. In Southern Hemisphere countries, favourable maize production prospects kept domestic prices under downward pressure in April and below their year-earlier levels. In Brazil, where a bumper first season crop is being harvested, maize prices declined sharply in April and averaged some 40 percent lower than a year earlier. In South Africa, expectations of a near‑record output pushed down white maize prices for the fourth consecutive month to less than half their year-earlier levels.
No. 23 The changing patterns of agricultural trade
09/05/2017
This brief describes trends in agri-food trade globally and by country income group with a focus on trade patterns of low-income countries.
No. 19 Ex-post evidence on the effectiveness of policies targeted at promoting healthier diets
09/05/2017
This note provides a structured review of adoption trends of national policies aimed at promoting healthier diets and collates evidence on their effectiveness. We limit our focus to evidence exploiting data collected after the policy implementation, and using appropriate counterfactual methods to identify the policy effect.
No. 18 The influence of agricultural, trade and food policies on diets
12/04/2017
Traditionally, agricultural, trade and food policies have rarely been shaped by their anticipated dietary and nutritional impacts. Yet, such policy choices have potentially important consequences for the diets and nutrition of populations.This note presents an overview of dietary implications of agri-food policies not explicitly targeted at nutrition.
No. 22 Agricultural markets: trends and outlook
11/04/2017
This brief discusses the major trends and prospects in agricultural production, consumption, trade and prices based on the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026.
Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Bulletin #3, 10 April 2017
10/04/2017
International wheat export prices followed diverging trends in March depending on the origin. The benchmark US wheat price declined after increasing in the previous two months, mainly reflecting improved weather conditions in key-growing areas. By contrast, in Argentina, prices increased because of strong demand. Maize export prices generally declined under pressure from favourable production prospects in Southern Hemisphere countries. International prices of rice remained relatively stable and were below their year-earlier levels in several leading origins. In East Africa, cereal prices continued to increase at a fast pace in March and reached record or near-record highs in most countries due to overall tight supplies and the uncertain prospects for the upcoming 2017 main harvests. High prices of cereals and low livestock prices further deteriorated the terms of trade for pastoralists, severely constraining their access to food. In Southern Africa, expectations of a strong maize production rebound in 2017 contributed to push down prices in most countries. In the key subregional producer and exporter South Africa, prices of white maize fell by nearly 30 percent in March, continuing the declining trend of the previous two months and were less than half their year-earlier levels.
No. 17 Transnational corporations, food systems and their impacts on diets in developing countries
14/03/2017
The objective in this technical note is to look at transnational corporations in the food industries and study the conceptual issues in trying to assess causation for diet change and to examine the (limited) empirical evidence supporting alternative views.
Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Bulletin #2, 10 March 2017
10/03/2017
International cereal export prices increased further in February. Wheat and maize quotations were mainly underpinned by strong demand but ample global supplies and generally favourable early prospects for 2017 crops limited the increase. International prices of rice also increased, mostly reflecting currency movements and expectations of stronger Basmati sales. In East Africa, cereal prices remained at record or near-record highs in February, underpinned by the sharply-reduced 2016/17 harvests following severe dry weather. Low water and pasture availability leading to the deterioration of livestock body conditions and destocking by farmers resulted in a sharp decline in livestock prices. In Nigeria, prices of staple foods, including cereals and tubers, rose sharply in January and reached record to near-record levels. The persistent depreciation of the local currency, soaring transport costs and civil insecurity more than offset the price downward effect from the 2016 above-average harvest.
No. 21 WTO Agreement on Agriculture: Export Competition after the Nairobi Ministerial Conference
08/03/2017
The Ministerial Decision on Export Competition introduced prohibitions to agricultural export subsidies. It foresees the elimination of export subsidies in different timeframes for developed and developing countries. Specific exceptions have been agreed upon for some products and for particular developed and developing members. The Decision also covers the other three elements (namely Export Credits and Guarantees,
Crop Prospects and Food Situation - Quarterly Global Report, No. 1, March 2017
02/03/2017
FAO’s first forecast of global wheat production in 2017 points to an above-average output, but down from the record high of 2016, mostly reflecting expectations of reduced crops in North America. COUNTRIES IN NEED OF EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE: FAO estimates that 37 countries, including 28 in Africa, are in need of external assistance for food. Conflicts and weather-related shocks are the main drivers of food insecurity.
GIEWS Update - Somalia, 23 February 2017
23/02/2017
A failed 2016 rainy season has led to extreme drought in the Horn of Africa and a more intense drought than that of 2010 in Somalia. Extreme weather conditions, combined with high food prices, trade disruptions, population displacement and insecurity, are likely to have a very severe impact on the food security of millions of people in Somalia in the coming months. The ongoing food crisis could be exacerbated by a poor rainfall season in 2017.
GIEWS Update - South Sudan, 22 February 2017
22/02/2017
After three years of conflict and macro-economic collapse, over 100 000 people are facing starvation. About 5 million people, over 40 percent of the population, are estimated to be severely food insecure. Granting unrestricted humanitarian access is crucial to prevent further escalation of famine.
Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Bulletin #1, 14 February 2017
14/02/2017
Cereal export prices firmed in January. A drop in plantings and concerns over the impact of unfavourable weather on the 2017 winter crops in the United States of America supported wheat values, while maize prices were mostly underpinned by strong demand. International prices of rice increased, primarily reflecting stronger demand and tighter availabilities of the Basmati variety. In East Africa, cereal prices continued to surge in January to near-record or record levels, as the output of the ongoing harvests was sharply reduced by a poor October-December rainy season. Pastoralists are reducing herd size due to lower water and pasture availability to mitigate potential losses and increase their ability to sustain the remaining animals. As a result of higher supplies of low quality animals in the market, livestock prices declined sharply. In Southern Africa, the favourable production outlook for the 2017 crop, particularly in South Africa, the main exporter and producer of the subregion, resulted in some price declines in January. Prices, however, remain generally at relatively high levels supported by the drought-reduced outputs in 2016. In West Africa, coarse grain prices generally declined in January and were around or below their levels a year earlier reflecting increased market supplies from the recent good 2016 harvests. However, in Nigeria, despite an above-average output, the continuing steep depreciation of the local currency and civil insecurity kept prices well above their year-earlier levels.
No. 20 How can governance be improved for trade and food security?
14/02/2017
This policy brief provides an overview of the different food security objectives that underlie the use of trade and related policy measures, based on Chapter 3 of the State of Commodity Markets (SOCO) 2016.