Food Outlook - December 2005
05/12/2005
FAO latest forecast for the 2005 world cereal output has been raised considerably since the September report to 2 005 million tonnes, 2.4 percent lower than last year’s record crop. Cereal crops have been satisfactory in most regions, except parts of Africa and South America. Planting of the 2006 cereal crop is underway in the main producing regions under generally favourable conditions so far. However, prospects are uncertain in Southern Africa and South America. Global cereal utilization is forecast to rise in 2005/06, with an expected increase in food consumption leading to some gains in the average per capita consumption in developing countries. By contrast, feed use of cereals is expected to decline. World cereal stocks are forecast to decrease, mostly reflecting smaller coarse grains inventory as a result of lower production this year. Cereal trade is expected to contract in 2005/06 following improved production in several major importing countries, mainly in Asia. International prices of cereals are generally higher than a year ago. Export prices have increased sharply in Argentina, reflecting reduced wheat production, and in South Africa as a result of high regional demand for maize. World milk output is expected to grow in 2005, but supplies from traditional exporters remain tight. International trade prices have stabilized at high levels supported by firm demand, particularly in Asia and North Africa. International prices of oilseeds have weakened in recent months following a substantial increase in production in 2004/05 (October/September), which has resulted in record oilseed carryover stocks. Global sugar production is forecast to rise in 2005 but sustained demand in developing countries will likely keep the global supply tight. International sugar prices remain firm. International banana prices have increased reflecting the impact of adverse weather in Latin America. In late November, the EU adopted a tariff-only system for banana imports due to start in January 2006. Any further extensive spread of avian flu could seriously disrupt global poultry and feed markets.
No. 10 Special and differential treatment in agriculture - November 2005
08/11/2005
This technical note is intended to contribute to the process of clarifying issues and identifying possible options to facilitate agreement on areas of special and differential treatment in the context of the agriculture negotiations. It first addresses what is seen by some members as the most difficult area, the cross cutting issues related to development, focused on the principles behind, and purpose of, SDT. It then examines the agreement-specific proposals under the three pillars of the Agreement on Agriculture (AoA), as raised in the August Framework Agreement. It concludes with a discussion of implementation, an area of particular concern to the developing countries.
No. 9 A special safeguard mechanism for developing countries - October 2005
04/10/2005
As countries reduce tariffs and bind them at lower levels, they become increasingly vulnerable to external agricultural market instability and to import surges that could damage viable agricultural production activities. Vulnerability to such external shocks is of particular concern to developing countries endeavoring to develop their agricultural potential and to diversify production in order to enhance their food security and alleviate poverty.
Food Outlook - September 2005
03/10/2005
FAO’s forecast of the 2005 world cereal output has been revised slightly downward since the previous report in June. Although lower than the record of 2004, the global cereal crop is still expected to be above the average of the past five years. Output of wheat and coarse grains is set to decline but that of rice is forecast to reach a record high. Most of the anticipated decrease in global cereal output in 2005 is in the developed countries, mainly reflecting smaller coarse grain crops. In developing countries, cereal production is expected marginally up from the good level of 2004. At the forecast level, global cereal production would not be sufficient to cover expected utilization in marketing year 2005/06, pointing to a larger drawdown in global cereal stocks than earlier anticipated. Contrary to earlier expectations, cereal inventories held by the major exporting countries are also forecast to decline. However, in the case of wheat and coarse grains, their share of the global totals would remain around the high levels of the previous season. FAO’s latest forecast of the world cereal trade in 2005/06 indicates a decline from the 2004/05 volume, mainly reflecting good crops in some of the main importing countries. Cereal food consumption in 2005/06 in developing countries is likely to keep pace with population growth, so the average per caput intake remains unchanged from 2004/05. Export prices of cereals have increased in the past months and are mostly somewhat above the levels of a year earlier. Despite recent outbreaks of Avian Influenza (AI) extending westwards from Asia into Europe, international meat prices have been rising since the beginning of 2005 supported by a strong recovery in meat consumption from the previous wave of disruption caused by animal disease in 2004. International coffee prices declined in recent months after having increased steadily in the past year. However, they are still well above their levels of a year ago. Import prices of banana picked-up in the first half of September in the United States. Negotiations on the rebinding of the EU tariff-quota system for banana imports continue under the WTO arbitration. Ocean freight rates that declined during the first half of 2005 have increased sharply since late August.
No. 12 Rice: what do analytical model results tell us?
13/09/2005
2004 was declared the International Year of Rice by the United Nations General Assembly, a tribute to a commodity that is the staple food for about half of the world’s population and also a major income earner in developing countries. Because of its strategic importance, rice has been subject to a host of policy interventions that have made it feature among the most distorted of all agricultural commodities. For this reason, rice is frequently specified in models that analyse the effects of trad e liberalization. The objective of this technical note is to review and compare the various analytical tools employed to assess such impacts, with the ultimate aim of shedding some light on critical issues under discussion in the current WTO Multilateral Trade Negotiations.
No. 8 Food aid in the context of international and domestic markets and the Doha Round
11/09/2005
This technical note reviews major developments in the international food aid system and different positions on the effectiveness and impact of food aid. It also attempts to clarify the terminology, definitions and concepts used in discussions on food aid, with a view to improving the process of analysis and to help focus the debate under the World Trade Organization's (WTO) Framework Agreement on Agriculture adopted on 1 August 2004, which has called for negotiations on food aid disciplines.
No. 9 A special safeguard mechanism for developing countries
06/09/2005
The July 2004 WTO Framework Agreement foresees a Special Safeguard Mechanism (SSM), to protect against depressed import prices and import surges for agricultural products, that is available to all developing countries. The SSM would in principle be applicable to all products. However, limits on the number of products for which a country can simultaneously apply additional duty under the SSM could be applied to prevent abuse
No. 7 Agricultural preferences: issues for negotiation
01/09/2005
Access for developing country exports to developed country markets on preferential terms has been a long standing component of multilateral trading arrangements. The main purpose of preferences is to promote increases in the volume and value of exports from developing countries, thereby contributing to their growth and development the logic being that through greater volumes of sales, on a more stable basis and at higher prices than would otherwise be obtained, development and growth can be realized in the recipient country.
No. 6 Sugar: the impact of reforms to sugar sector policies a guide to contemporary analyses
09/08/2005
This technical note is intended as a guide to assist in the interpretation of a range of existing analytical studies of the impact of current sugar sector policies on world market conditions and on developing country producers, and of the insights that these studies can provide (and those that they cannot) in determining the potential impacts of future reform initiatives. This is especially important in the case of the sugar sector, since recent announcements of major reforms are yet to be fully incorporated into contemporary analytical studies.
No. 5 Domestic support: trade related issues and the empirical evidence
12/07/2005
This Technical Note seeks to address two central questions relating to negotiations towards further disciplines on domestic support measures: (i) what are the characteristics of domestic support measures that cause such measures to have a potential trade distortionary effect? and (ii) will further the World Trade Organization(WTO) disciplines on domestic support measures be effective in reducing levels of trade-distorting support.
No. 7 Non-reciprocal agricultural trade preferences
05/07/2005
Access for developing country exports to developed country markets on preferential terms has been a long standing component of multilateral trading arrangements.
Special Report - FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to Zambia - 24 June 2005
24/06/2005
An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission visited Zambia from 1 to 21 May in order to assess and forecast the 2005 harvest of the main cereal and root crops, and to estimate the country’s cereal import requirements for the 2005/06 marketing year (May/April), including food aid needs.
Special Report - FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to Swaziland - 23 June 2005
23/06/2005
Over the past decade, Swaziland has repeatedly experienced droughts or inadequate rainfall and resultant poor harvests. The rainfall this ending season, though more favourable overall, was characterized by a late start in October and deficits in December at crop establishment stage and in February at tusselling stage. Concerned about the potential impact of these breaks on the nation’s food production, the Government of Swaziland requested FAO and WFP for assistance in assessing crop performance and overall food supply situation for the 2005/06 marketing year (April/March). Accordingly, an FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission (CFSAM) visited the country from 30 April to 12 May and carried out the requested task.
Special Report - FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to Malawi - 20 June 2005
20/06/2005
An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission (CFSAM) visited Malawi between 24 April and 15 May 2005 following a request by the Ministry of Agriculture, the Government of Malawi (GOM). Early indications showed that the country may face severe food shortages for the ensuing year and, therefore, the CFSA Mission was requested to assess the situation and the impact of the perceived food shortages on the population at large and the vulnerable groups in particular. Officials from the Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Food Security (MAIFS) accompanied the Mission, while a representative from the European Union (EU) participated as an observer.
Special Report - FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to Lesotho
20/06/2005
During March 2005, a mid-season crop assessment was carried out by an agronomist at the request of FAO and WFP Country Offices. This was not the usual FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission (CFSAM) which in addition to crop assessment evaluates the prospective overall food supply and demand situation and the food needs of vulnerable population groups. It was subsequently proposed that a full but relatively short CFSAM be fielded at near harvest time to update the crop assessment and to collect socioeconomic data for an overall food security evaluation. This was the task of the CFSAM that visited the country from 12 to 19 May 2005.
Special Report - FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to Mozambique - 20 June 2005
20/06/2005
Following the reports of poor harvests in southern and central provinces due to drought, an FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission (CFSAM) visited all the production areas in the country from 25 April to 13 May 2005. The Mission evaluated food crop production in the 2004/05 agricultural season, assessed the overall food supply situation, forecast cereal import requirements and possible exports in marketing year 2005/06 (April/March) and determined the eventual food aid needs.
No. 4 Export competition: selected issues and the empirical evidence
07/06/2005
There is broad agreement that interventions to support exports of agricultural commodities have the potential to distort competition on world commodity markets. In particular, the use of export subsidies can displace not only third-country exporters but also domestic producers in importing countries, with particularly detrimental effects to the development prospects of developing countries. In principle, it is also possible that other government interventions, e.g. through the use of export credits, the activities of state trading enterprises, or the use of food aid to dispose of surplus production, could have similar effects to direct export subsidies in distorting markets and trade flows.