Price transmission in selected agricultural markets
09/03/2004
The paper is aimed at providing evidence on price transmission in a number of agricultural markets, both per se and in support of analytical efforts in the area of agricultural trade policy analysis. Work is based on a price database collected from various sources in sixteen countries - Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Pakistan, Senegal, Thailand, Turkey, Uganda, and Uruguay - primarily for basic food commodities. Both spatial and vertical price relations are considered, as the database includes prices at the producer, wholesale and retail levels. These are supplemented with information from FAOSTAT. Data are analyzed with an econometric framework based on the estimation of Autoregressive Distributed Lag models, and of the corresponding Error Correction specification. Tests for Granger causality and for asymmetric transmission are also performed. Results indicate that the African markets included in the sample are characterized by more incomplete transmission compared to Latin American and Asian markets.
Special Report - FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to Sudan - 11 February 2004
11/02/2004
An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission visited southern Sudan from 9 to 30 October 2003 and northern Sudan from 8 November to 1 December 2003 in order to estimate cereal production and food supply and assess food aid needs from the current harvest of mainly sorghum and millet and to make an early forecast of wheat production in 2004 from areas prepared for planting. Based on these estimates of production and carryover stocks, the Mission assessed the 2003/04 cereal supply/demand including export potential and import requirements for the marketing year 2003/04 (November–October).
Special Report - FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to Ethiopia - 12 January 2004
12/01/2004
An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission visited Ethiopia from 5 November to 6 December 2003 to estimate the meher season cereal and pulse production, forecast the 2004 belg season production, assess the overall food supply situation and estimate grain import requirements, including food aid needs, for the 2004 marketing year. Accompanied by experts from the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and split into six teams, the Mission visited all regions. Parallel to the crop assessment teams but spread over a longer period, over 20 teams led by the government’s Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Commission (DPPC) and comprising WFP, other United Nations agencies, bilateral donor agencies and NGOs visited marginal localities and vulnerable zones and districts (woredas) to determine their current and prospective food security situation.
World markets for organic citrus and citrus juices
01/01/2004
The world market for certified organic citrus (fresh and juice) is presently small and production accounts for less than 1 percent of global citrus production. The main markets are the European Community and the United States, which are also the world’s largest two producers. Consumption of organic citrus is expected to rise steadily in developed countries in the coming years, providing interesting export opportunities.
Agricultural policy indicators
01/01/2004
This paper outlines a methodological approach for use by FAO to collect, analyze and monitor agricultural policy indicators (API) for developing countries. The aim is to establish a consistent and comparable set of policy indicators, allowing analysts to examine whether agriculture in particular countries is being stimulated or retarded by the set of policies employed. The API should also be useful in the context of quantitative models of policy impacts and market projections. Ideally, the indicators should function as building blocks for the more comprehensive policy measurement. This paper is presented in four parts. Part 1 gives an overview of the rationale for monitoring, the relationship between policy monitoring, quantitative modelling and evaluation, and the basic menu of choices of indicators. Part 2 provides a brief review of the studies that have calculated the extent of agricultural support in developed countries since 1973 and of the comparable exercises that have focused on developing countries, mainly published since 1990. In light of the apparent "success" or "failure" of the studies mentioned above, and of the authors' experience with many of them, Part 3 identifies several areas that in our opinion deserve special attention in the planning of the FAO-sponsored studies. We attempt to provide insights into methodological, computational and logistical problems that might be faced by FAO. Part 4 suggests a methodological approach for FAO, elaborating on the suggested coverage, definitions, classification criteria and methods of calculation.
The market for non-traditional agricultural exports
01/01/2004
The last decade has witnessed a steady decline in the dollar values of many of the traditional agricultural export crops (TAEs) from developing countries and has highlighted the risks of depending upon a very narrow export base for foreign exchange earnings. Breaking the dependence upon the traditional primary commodities and diversifying into higher value or added value exports is not easy. This report provides an overview of the market for non-traditional agricultural exports (NTAEs). In parti cular, the report focuses upon the trends in international trade in these products, the trade and import policies of the major destination buyers, the extent of the “adding-up” problem for selected NTAEs, the lessons learned, and the prospects for developing niche markets for organic and fair trade NTAEs. The report provides detailed statistical data on trends in the export of NTAEs during the ten-year period 1992 to 2001, both in volume and value terms, analyses the contribution of develop ing countries and least-developed countries (LDCs) to trade in NTAEs and identifies the leading developing country exporters. Trade and import policies of the key destination countries for NTAEs: the European Union, the United States and Japan are examined. Trade barriers such as tariffs and other import measures, including the complex area of phytosanitary controls, are examined and the impact of tariff liberalization, tariff escalation and the extent of tariff preferences for developing countr y exporters of NTAEs are discussed.
World markets for organic citrus and citrus juices -Current market situation and medium-term prospects
01/01/2004
The world market for certified organic citrus (fresh and juice) is presently small and production accounts for less than 1 percent of global citrus production. The main markets are the European Community and the United States, which are also the world’s largest two producers. Consumption of organic citrus is expected to rise steadily in developed countries in the coming years, providing interesting export opportunities.
The impact of domestic and trade policies on the world cotton market
01/01/2004
There is a long tradition in the quantification of the impact of agricultural trade distortions on global markets, trade, and individual countries, notably in the context of the ongoing multilateral trade negotiations. This paper analyses the case of cotton in this context. Recently, the issue of cotton subsidies and their likely negative effects has attracted considerable attention and controversy. There are some model-based assessments of the impact, and their results differ markedly. While th e models utilized are similar in structure, the differences are in the assumptions about the levels of subsidies, as well as market parameters. This study presents some fresh estimates of the likely impact of cotton subsidies on both subsidizing and non-subsidizing countries using the UNCTAD-FAO ATPSM model. The analysis is based on official subsidies as notified to the WTO.
Agricultural trade liberalization in the Doha round. Alternative scenarios and strategic interactions between developed and developing countries
01/01/2004
The paper explores the impact of an agricultural trade agreement, simulating alternative liberalization scenarios, and studying the outcomes of the interaction between the strategies of country groups in the negotiations. The analysis is based on the model of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), and on the related version 5.4 database. Scenarios are run on a 2013 baseline, built by taking into account a number of events that have affected (and will further affect) world agricultural markets up to that period, focusing on the effects that are specifically attributable to further trade liberalization in the Doha Round. The policy strategies analyzed are two liberalization scenarios based on the proposals made in the present round of agricultural negotiations in terms of market access and export competition, plus a free agricultural trade benchmark scenario. Simulations are employed to study the interactions between the possible strategies of two wide country groups – developed and d eveloping countries on the basis of game theory, and to search for mutually advantageous agreements to be compared with actual agreement hypotheses. Results indicate that welfare gains could be reaped both by developed and developing countries and the possibility of inter-country compensations would allow, at least in principle, an agreement to be reached.
Voluntary Standards and Certification for Environmentally and Socially Responsible Agricultural Production and Trade
01/01/2004
This report summarizes the presentations and discussions that took place during the "FAO Meeting on Voluntary Standards and Certification for Environmentally and Socially Responsible Agricultural Production and Trade" (Rome, 22 April 2004). Over 120 participants from all over the world gathered to discuss issues related to the promotion of environmentally and socially sustainable agricultural practices. The meeting was held in close collaboration and back-to-back with the final conference of the SASA project held at FAO on 21 April 2004. It marked the first time that FAO engaged such a wide variety and number of non-governmental organizations (NGOs), private sector stakeholders and other institutions to further the development of responsible agricultural production and trade. Moreover, it demonstrated the commitment of the Organization to discuss the issue of voluntary standards and certification initiatives in relation to how they may benefit small farmers, plantation workers, rural communities and society as a whole.
Special Report - FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to Eritrea - 27 November 2003
27/11/2003
An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Assessment Mission visited Eritrea from 25 October to 12 November 2003 to assess the 2003 production of the main cereals and pulses as well as the condition of the livestock, review the overall food situation and estimate the cereal import requirement for 2004 – including food aid needs – and identify essential support activities towards crop production and livestock management in 2004.
Food Outlook - November 2003
03/11/2003
FAO’s latest forecast for global cereal production in 2003 is 1 874 million tonnes, 2 percent more than in 2002 but still less than the expected utilization in 2003/04, which is forecast at 1 971 million tonnes. As a result, global cereal stocks are expected to be drawn down to 382 million tonnes. World cereal trade is forecast to fall significantly in 2003/04 to 227 million tonnes, the lowest level in 6 years. Most of this large decline is being driven by wheat and to a lesser extent by rice; trade in coarse grains is expected to increase slightly. Prices for most cereals remain under downward pressure. International wheat prices weakened during September and October, mostly influenced by the sharp reduction in global import demand. Export prices for nearly all types of coarse grains remained generally stable over the same period. Only international rice prices showed any significant signs of strengthening and continued to rally in all categories except for the lower quality Indica rice. A continued recovery in meat prices in the short-term is expected to prompt a slight rebound in meat production in 2004. The influence of trade restricting measures in major meat importing countries is likely to persist in 2004 limiting upward price movement. International prices for dairy products rose between August and October 2003, after being stable during the first half of the year. For the remainder of 2003, prices are expected to show a further moderate increase. While global output of oilcrops and products is expected to increase robustly in marketing season 2003/04, prices for oilseeds, and oils and fats should also increase with firm demand and low stocks. Prices of meals may fall under higher supplies and slow growth in feed demand. Record sugar production and surplus stocks will continue to pressure world sugar prices into the new year, as more finalized forecasts for 2002/03 indicate an additional 10.2 million tonnes of output.
Special Report - FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to the Democratic People's Republic of Korea - 30 October 2003
30/10/2003
An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission visited the country from 23 September to 4 October to assess the 2003 crop harvest, forecast 2004 production of winter/spring wheat, barley and potato crops, and estimate cereal import requirements for the 2003/04 marketing year (November/October), including food aid needs.
Special Report - FAO/WFP Crop, Food Supply and Nutrition Assessment Mission to Iraq
23/09/2003
A FAO/WFP Crop, Food Security Assessment Mission visited Iraq from 5 June to 14 July 2003 to assess the current food security situation - following the recent military and political upheaval – to estimate the 2003 cereal harvest and to forecast the cereal import requirements, including food aid, in the marketing year 2003/2004 (July/June). The Mission was able to visit all 18 governorates during the assessment. The Mission’s findings are based on discussions held with advisors to the Office of the Coalition Provisional Authority (OCPA), relevant ministries, United Nations agencies, multilateral and bilateral donors, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), farmers, Ministry of Trade Food Agents, community leaders, combineharvester contractors, traders and haulers and the Mission’s own crop inspections, crop-cut samplings and surveys.
Food Outlook - September 2003
05/09/2003
Prospects for world cereal output in 2003 have deteriorated since the previous report in June, following a widespread drought and heat-wave in Europe. As a result, the FAO forecast for world cereal production in 2003 has been reduced sharply, indicating that the amount of global cereal carryover stocks that could be drawn down in 2003/04 will be much larger than expected earlier, and the overall global supply-and-demand situation will be much tighter. FAO’s forecast for global cereal output in 2003 has been revised downward to 1 865 million tonnes, some 48 million tonnes below the previous forecast but still 33 million tonnes above last year’s reduced level. Wheat output is now expected to fall to its lowest level since 1995, while the recovery anticipated for coarse grains after last year’s below-average crop is not likely to be as large as expected earlier. The outlook for the 2003 paddy crop remains favourable and a recovery from last year’s poor output is still in prospect. World cereal utilization in 2003/04 is forecast to increase moderately by about 0.4 percent to 1 964 million tonnes, but would remain below the medium-term trend. While cereal food consumption is likely to keep pace with population growth, feed-use of cereals, most notably wheat, is now expected to decline. FAO’s forecast for world cereal carryover stocks in 2004 has been lowered significantly since the June report to 372 million tonnes, down almost 95 million tonnes, or 20 percent, from the previous season. Wheat is expected to account for the largest share of the overall decline during the current season, but inventories of both coarse grains and rice will also decline significantly. World cereal trade in 2003/04 is forecast to fall to a five-year low of just 227.5 million tonnes, which would be 11 million tonnes, or 5 percent, below the previous season. Reduced wheat shipments are expected to account for the bulk of the year-onyear decline in world cereal trade, following good crops in several importing countries. International wheat prices increased over the past two months, mostly in response to a deterioration of prospects for the European crop. In the maize market, prices have remained under downward pressure due to good crop prospects in several major producing countries. International rice prices have risen steadily since May in response to tightening supplies in some major exporting countries.
Special Report - FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to Afghanistan - 13 August 2003
13/08/2003
An FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission visited Afghanistan from 15 June to 8 July 2003, to review estimates of the 2003 cereal harvest and forecast cereal import requirements for the 2003/04 (July/June) marketing year. The Mission relied heavily on data generated by the Nationwide Crop Output Assessment (NCOA) carried out by Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Husbandry (MAAH) together with FAO and with the support of the Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development (MRRD) and WFP in 30 provinces of the 32 provinces of the country. The Mission held discussions with Government officials, UN agencies, multilateral and bilateral donors, local and international NGOs and made field visits to major crop producing northern and western provinces that allowed for some minor adjustments to NCOA data. The Mission also benefited from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) expertise in agro-meteorology. Available relevant reports and documents were reviewed and satellite based normalised difference vegetation indices (NDVI) and Snow Depletion Curves were analyzed.
