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Reference Date: 24-May-2016

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  1. Rice production in 2016 forecast close to last year’s record level

  2. Cereal imports in 2015/16 marketing year (July/June) forecast to decrease considerably

  3. Rice and wheat prices on decrease and well below their year-earlier levels

Rice production in 2016 forecast close to last year’s record level

Harvesting of the 2016 main ‘’boro’’ season rice crop has recently completed. FAO estimates this season’s output at 28.1 million tonnes, slightly below the corresponding season last year. The decrease is the result of a small contraction in plantings, in response to low domestic prices. Planting of the 2016 ‘’aus’’ season was completed in mid-May under above-average rains, which facilitated land preparation and early crop development. Planting of the 2016 ‘’aman’’ crop just started and will continue until August. Assuming that a good monsoon season and continued Government support will result in higher ‘’aus’’ and ‘’aman’’ crops, offsetting the slightly reduced “boro” output. FAO tentatively forecasts the 2016 aggregate rice production at 52.2 million tonnes, virtually unchanged from the 2015 record level.

Cereal imports in 2015/16 marketing year forecast to decrease considerably from last year’s record

Cereal imports in the current 2015/16 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at 4.2 million tonnes, 21 percent down from the last year’s record level. The decrease reflects lower rice imports, which are estimated at 615 000 tonnes from the 1.5 million tonnes of the previous year, in line with the record production in 2015 and large carryover stocks. Similarly, wheat imports are estimated to decrease to 3.5 million tonnes from previous year’s high level, due to high level of stocks.

Rice and wheat prices on decrease and well below their year-earlier levels

Domestic rice prices decreased since February, reflecting good availabilities from the 2015 output, estimated at a record level and from the recently-harvested 2016 main season crop. Similarly, prices of mostly imported wheat flour decreased further in April and were well below their year-earlier levels. The drop reflects good availabilities from the 2016 bumper output and strong imports this year. Continuing distribution by the Government through Open Market Sales (OMS) at prices lower than last year and now being extended beyond metropolitan areas to cover the whole country also added to the downward pressure on prices.









Relevant links:
From GIEWS:
 Food Price Data and Analysis Tool
 Earth Observation Indicators
 Maps
 Seasonal Indicators
 Vegetation Indicators
 Precipitation Indicators
 Graphs & Data
 NDVI & Precipitation
 Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM) Reports & Special Alerts: 2008, 1998
From FAO:
 FAO Country Profiles

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