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Reference Date: 27-March-2015


  1. Bumper 2015 “boro” paddy crop expected

  2. Cereal imports in 2014/15 marketing year (July/June) forecast to decrease slightly

  3. Rice and wheat prices decreased in March

  4. Localized food insecurity persists

The 2015 “boro” paddy output forecast higher than last year’s record

Harvesting of the 2014/15 irrigated main “boro’’ rice crop, accounting for some 55 percent of annual output, is about to start and will be concluded by May. Adequate water supplies, coupled with overall good inputs availability, including fertilizer, seeds as well as power and diesel for irrigation, benefited planting operations and crop development. However, in the northern districts of the country, including Rangpur and Sylhet, reports indicate disruptions in the supply of fertilizers and fuel, due to ongoing civil protests, which may result in localized crop losses. According to the latest official estimates some 4.83 million hectares have been planted under “boro’’ paddy, slightly above last year’s good level of the same season. Considering the small increase in area planted and assuming slightly higher yields, FAO forecasts this season’s rice production at 29 million tonnes, slightly above last year's record output of the corresponding season. Including the official estimates for the ‘’aus’’ and ‘’aman’’ seasons, harvested in 2014, FAO forecasts the 2014 aggregate paddy output at a record level of 52.2 million tonnes.

Latest official forecasts for the 2014/15 minor winter wheat crop, harvesting of which is well advanced, indicated a 9 percent higher output of 1.45 million tonnes. This increase reflects a slight expansion in plantings and expected higher yields due to favourable weather conditions and adequate input supply.

Cereal imports in 2014/15 marketing year forecast to decrease slightly

In aggregate, the country’s cereal imports for the current 2014/15 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at 3.7 million tonnes, some 4 percent down from last year’s high level. The projected decrease mainly reflects lower rice imports, which are expected to decline to 700 000 tonnes from the 1.1 million tonnes of the previous year, in line with the anticipated record 2014/15 production. By contrast, wheat imports are forecast to increase by 10 percent to 3 million tonnes from last year’s high level, due to high domestic demand and based on the current expectations that the Government will continue its efforts to restore stocks for the public distribution programmes.

Rice and wheat prices decreased in March

Domestic rice prices decreased in the first three weeks of March, reflecting adequate supplies from the previous 2014 bumper ‘’aman’’ harvest, anticipated record “boro” crop and considerably higher rice imports by the private sector in recent months. Overall, rice prices were slightly below last year’s level. Similarly, prices of mostly imported wheat flour decreased slightly during the first three weeks of March and were below their year-earlier levels, reflecting lower quotations in the international market and recent imports by the private sector. Continuing distribution by the Government through open market sales also put downward pressure on wheat prices.

Relevant links:
 Food Price Data and Analysis Tool
 Earth Observation Indicators
 Seasonal Indicators
 Vegetation Indicators
 Precipitation Indicators
 Graphs & Data
 NDVI & Precipitation
 Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM) Reports & Special Alerts: 2008, 1998
From FAO:
 FAO Country Profiles

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