Reference Date: 14-December-2012
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FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
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Favourable weather at the start of the 2012/13 cropping season
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Record 2012 paddy harvest estimated
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Rice prices remain generally stable at low levels while wheat prices continue to rise
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Localized food insecurity persists
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Favourable weather at the start of the 2012/13 cropping season
Planting of the 2012/13 country’s main crops, almost entirely irrigated Boro rice and winter wheat, is underway. Above-normal rainfall in early November over large parts of the country supplemented soil moisture and was generally favourable for planting. Early official targets for the current cropping season indicate that the Boro paddy crop is expected to reach 18.8 million tonnes, slightly above last year’s record crop.
Record 2012 paddy harvest estimated
Harvesting of the 2012 Aman paddy crop is almost complete and latest estimates point to a record harvest of 13 million tonnes. In aggregate, including Aus, Aman and ongoing Boro seasons, the 2012 rice output is estimated at 51.3 million tonnes (equivalent to 34.2 million tonnes in milled terms), some 1.2 percent up on 2011. Generally favourable rainfall and continued government input assistance (i.e. high yielding seed verities and fertilizers), are attributed to the increase in total crop production. However, dry weather in August and flash floods, particularly in north and south-western region at the time of planting, led to some localised crop losses to Aman crop. On average Aus,
Aman and Boro seasons account for 7, 38 and 55 percent, respectively, of the annual paddy production.
Wheat production, officially estimated at about 1 million tonnes, showed a 4 percent increase compared to the previous year. A combination of favourable climatic conditions and high yielding variety seeds were the main factors responsible for the increase.
Overall, the cereal output for 2012 is estimated at 54.5 million tonnes, 2 percent above the previous year.
Import requirements, for the current 2012/13 marketing year (July/June) are estimated at 3.2 million tonnes, some 44 percent higher than last year’s below-average level. The increase reflects, in part, higher wheat demand, since wheat constitutes the bulk of the imports.
Rice prices remain generally stable at low levels while wheat prices continue to rise
Rice prices have been generally stable at relatively low levels since December 2011, following satisfactory consecutive domestic harvests, sufficient domestic stocks and continuous public rice distribution through Open Market Sale (OMS) programme implemented by the Government. Rice prices in November were 6.4 percent below the high levels of a year ago.
On the other hand, prices of wheat flour have been increasing in recent months, after a slowdown of wheat imports and due to rising international wheat prices (particularly in the region). The retail wheat flour price in Dhaka in November 2012 was about 19.5 percent above the level of the same month a year ago.
The year-on-year monthly food price inflation is estimated at 6.5 percent in November 2012, lower than the 7.4 percent general price inflation.
Localized food insecurity persists
The lingering effects of frequent natural disasters, including the floods at the end of June, mid-July and late September, combined with rodent and pig attacks on crops, communal conflicts in some areas such as the remote Chittagong Hill Tracts in south-eastern parts of the country and other localized problems have raised the level of food insecurity of the affected households. In 2012, the floods affected around 1.3 million people, damaged agricultural infrastructure, water and sanitation facilities.
Furthermore, the affected population suffered loss of assets including houses, grain stocks, poultry and livestock.