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Reference Date: 24-October-2014


  1. 2014 aggregate rice production forecast to expand slightly to a record high

  2. Cereal imports in 2014/15 marketing year (July/June) forecast to decrease slightly

  3. Rice prices stable, while those of wheat declining

  4. Localized food insecurity persists

2014 aggregate rice production forecast to expand slightly to a record high

Harvesting of the 2014 Aman season rice crop is expected to start in early November and continue until mid-December. Overall, rainfall between June and mid-October has been near-average over the main rice-producing areas benefiting sowing activities and crop development. However, heavy rains during the second dekad of August over northwestern and northeastern parts of the country, coupled with onrush of water from upstream in India led to localized floods, resulting in some crop losses in some areas. In spite of this, the overall damage to the 2014 Aman season paddy crop is expected to be minimal. As a result, FAO’s preliminary forecast for this season stands at 19.7 million tonnes, slightly above last year’s same season bumper crop. This reflects an increase in the area planted, in response to high prices at sowing time, coupled with higher yields due to the good rains during the season and increased use of improved seeds. Under current expectations, FAO tentatively forecasts the 2014 aggregate rice production (including Aus, the ongoing Aman and forthcoming Boro seasons) at 52.5 million tonnes, up 2 percent from the 2013 output. On average, Aus, Aman and Boro seasons account for 7, 38 and 55 percent, respectively, of annual paddy production.

Harvesting of the 2014 maize crop in nearing completion. FAO’s latest forecast points to a maize crop of 2.3 million tonnes, slightly above last year’s record output.

FAO’s estimates the 2014 mostly irrigated small wheat crop, harvested by April, at 2 percent from last year’s good level to 1.4 million tonnes.

Cereal imports in 2014/15 marketing year forecast to decrease slightly

In aggregate, the country’s cereal imports for the current 2014/15 marketing year are forecast at 3.2 million tonnes, some 3 percent down from last year’s near-average level. The projected decrease mainly reflects lower rice imports, which are expected to decrease to 400 000 tonnes in 2015 from the 600 000 tonnes in 2014, based on an anticipated record 2014 production. By contrast, wheat imports are forecast to increase by 4 percent to 2.8 million tonnes from last year’s high level, based on the current expectations that the Government will continue its efforts to restore stocks for the public distribution programmes.

Rice prices stable, while those of wheat declined

Domestic rice prices were generally stable in September and similar to last year’s level, with the downward pressure from good outputs of the Boro and Aus crops offset by the Government Boro rice procurement, which was extended until 15 October. The procurement started in May with a target of 1.1 million tonnes of rice. Rice was bought at BDT 31 (USD 0.40) per kg for parboiled rice, at BDT 30 (USD 0.39) per kg for white rice and at BDT 20 (USD 0.26) per kg for paddy. On the contrary, prices of wheat flour decreased further in September as a result of continuing distributions by the Government through open market sales.

While the official procurement price for the 2014 Aman season rice has not still been fixed by the Ministry of Agriculture, the production costs, which are the base of the procurement price, have been increased compared to last year’s same season. The production cost per kilogramme of milled rice has been increased by 10 percent to BDT 28 (USD 0.36) and that of paddy by 6 percent to BDT 18 (USD 0.23). The decision to increase the production cost reflects mainly higher prices of tilling, fertilizers, irrigation and labour.

According to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics the year-on-year CPI in September 2014 was recorded at 6.8 percent relative to the same period last year.

Localized food insecurity persists

Overall, food supply conditions are stable following consecutive years of relatively good harvests. However, frequent natural disasters, including the recent floods in the northern part of the country have further aggravated the food security situation of the affected households. According to the latest official assessments, as of mid-September, the floods displaced at least 275 000 people and adversely affected nearly 3 million. Severe damage to housing, infrastructure and agriculture is also reported. Similarly, the relatively high domestic rice prices are limiting access to food of low-income groups of the population.

Relevant links:
 Food Price Data and Analysis Tool
 Earth Observation Indicators
 Seasonal Indicators
 Vegetation Indicators
 Precipitation Indicators
 Graphs & Data
 NDVI & Precipitation
 Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM) Reports & Special Alerts: 2008, 1998
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