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Reference Date: 09-September-2016

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  1. Favourable weather conditions at start of 2016 main maize cropping season

  2. Inflation rates forecast to rise moderately in 2016

  3. Refugees from Central African Republic estimated at 28 600 in late May

Favourable weather conditions at start of 2016 main maize cropping season

Planting of the main season maize crop, for harvest in December-January, has recently started. The rainy season, which normally starts in September, had an early onset in central areas, where rains started in the second dekad of August (see rainfall anomaly map) thus favouring land preparation activities. Earlier in the year, the secondary season maize crop, harvested in June-July, was affected by early season dryness in January and February, which delayed planting operations. Subsequently, above average precipitation in March and April offset early seasonal moisture deficits, and despite the below average rains received in May, according to remote sensing data, vegetation conditions in the second dekad of May, before the harvest, were satisfactory (see ASI Map).

Average import requirement levels forecast in 2016

Domestic cereal production covers a small proportion of the consumption requirements, with imports accounting for approximately 94 percent of the total utilization, mainly through commercial channels.

In the 2016 marketing year (January/December), the cereal import requirement, mainly wheat and rice, is forecast at around 300 000 tonnes, similar to the previous year.

Inflation rates forecast to rise moderately in 2016

According to the IMF, the average inflation rate, which increased from a low 1 percent in 2014 to 2 percent in 2015 due to a rise in public sector wages, is forecast to rise moderately to 2.3 percent in 2016.

In the last several years, the rates of inflation were very volatile, increasing from 2.6 percent in 2007 to about 5 percent in 2008‑2010, then declining to 1.8 percent in 2011 and increasing again to about 5 percent in 2012 and 2013.

Refugees from the Central African Republic estimated at 28 600 in late May

In late May 2016, the number of refugees which entered the country from the Central African Republic was estimated at 28 600, 25 percent less than the peak recorded in September 2015, after the resurgence of inter communal violence in the capital, Bangui, and in other areas of the country.

Most refugees are located in Likouala Province, in particular in two sites close to the Central African Republic border along the Ubangi River (Bétou and Impfondo). Their food security is essentially guaranteed by continued humanitarian assistance.







Relevant links:
From GIEWS:
 As of Jun 2016, included in the list of "Countries Requiring External Assistance for Food"
 Cereal Supply/Demand Balance Sheet
 Earth Observation Indicators
 Maps
 Seasonal Indicators
 Vegetation Indicators
 Precipitation Indicators
 Graphs & Data
 NDVI & Precipitation
 Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM) Reports & Special Alerts: 1998
From FAO:
 FAO Country Profiles

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