Reference Date: 22-July-2016
FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
Cereal production in 2016 to decline slightly
Wheat exports in 2016/17 to decrease from last year following smaller harvest
Export prices of wheat increased slightly over last months
Cereal production in 2016 to decline slightly from last year’s level
The 2016 cereal crop, which is expected to be harvested from August, is forecast at 17.8 million tonnes, slightly below the 2015 level. Most of the decline is on the account of a smaller wheat crop which is forecast at 13.5 million tonnes. The decrease reflects a continuation of the downward trend in wheat area of the past few years as farmers, wherever possible, are switching land to more profitable crops, in particular maize. Maize production is expected to rise by 9 percent to 800 000 tonnes. Outputs of other crops, such as barley and oats, are also expected higher than last year.
Wheat exports in 2016/17 to decline from last season following smaller harvest
Kazakhstan is a main exporter of cereals (mainly wheat) and plays an important role in ensuring food security in the subregion. The bulk of cereals are traditionally exported to neighbouring CIS countries (around 40 percent of all exports go to Uzbekistan), but also outside the subregion to Afghanistan, China and the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Total cereal exports in the 2016/17 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at 7.2 million tonnes, down 4 percent from the 2015/16 season. Of the total, wheat (including wheat flour in grain equivalent), is expected to account for 6.5 million tonnes, down by 400 000 tonnes from the previous year.
Export prices of wheat continued to increase in July
Despite downward pressure from the prospect of a generally good wheat crop in the CIS subregion this year, export prices of milling wheat in Kazakhstan continued to increase further slightly in June and the first half of July, continuing the upward trend since March. High export demand and strengthening of the national currency supported prices.