Reference Date: 05-September-2016
FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
Aggregate cereal production to increase in 2016
Wheat exports in 2016/17 to increase marginally from previous year
Export prices of wheat declined slightly over past month
Aggregate cereal production in 2016 forecast to increase
Latest forecasts point to a 5 percent increase in total cereal production in 2016 to 18.8 million tonnes, up 5 percent from the 2015 level. Wheat output is now forecast to reach 14.5 million tonnes, higher than the previous forecast, following a recent upward adjustment to reflect higher estimates of planted area and improved yield prospects. Barley and maize outputs are also expected to increase from last year, to 2.7 million tonnes and 800 000 tonnes, respectively.
Wheat exports are projected to increase marginally in 2016/17
Kazakhstan is a major exporter of cereals (mainly wheat) and plays an important role in ensuring food security in the subregion. The bulk of cereals are traditionally exported to neighbouring CIS countries (around 40 percent of all exports go to Uzbekistan), but also outside the subregion to Afghanistan, China and the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Aggregate cereal exports in the 2016/17 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at 7.7 million tonnes, up marginally from the 2015/16 season. Of the total, wheat (including wheat flour in grain equivalent) is expected to account for 7 million tonnes, up by 100 000 tonnes from the previous year.
Export prices of wheat declined in August
With the arrival of the new crop in the market and limited import demand from neighbouring countries, export prices for wheat in Kazakhstan started to decline in August, after several months of growth. In August, export quotations were just 1 percent below the previous month’s level but 24 percent below their level of the corresponding period the year before.