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Reference Date: 22-July-2016


  1. Cereal production in 2016 to decline slightly

  2. Wheat exports in 2016/17 to decrease from last year following smaller harvest

  3. Export prices of wheat increased slightly over last months

Cereal production in 2016 to decline slightly from last year’s level

The 2016 cereal crop, which is expected to be harvested from August, is forecast at 17.8 million tonnes, slightly below the 2015 level. Most of the decline is on the account of a smaller wheat crop which is forecast at 13.5 million tonnes. The decrease reflects a continuation of the downward trend in wheat area of the past few years as farmers, wherever possible, are switching land to more profitable crops, in particular maize. Maize production is expected to rise by 9 percent to 800 000 tonnes. Outputs of other crops, such as barley and oats, are also expected higher than last year.

Wheat exports in 2016/17 to decline from last season following smaller harvest

Kazakhstan is a main exporter of cereals (mainly wheat) and plays an important role in ensuring food security in the subregion. The bulk of cereals are traditionally exported to neighbouring CIS countries (around 40 percent of all exports go to Uzbekistan), but also outside the subregion to Afghanistan, China and the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Total cereal exports in the 2016/17 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at 7.2 million tonnes, down 4 percent from the 2015/16 season. Of the total, wheat (including wheat flour in grain equivalent), is expected to account for 6.5 million tonnes, down by 400 000 tonnes from the previous year.

Export prices of wheat continued to increase in July

Despite downward pressure from the prospect of a generally good wheat crop in the CIS subregion this year, export prices of milling wheat in Kazakhstan continued to increase further slightly in June and the first half of July, continuing the upward trend since March. High export demand and strengthening of the national currency supported prices.

Relevant links:
 Food Price Data and Analysis Tool
 Earth Observation Indicators
 Seasonal Indicators
 Vegetation Indicators
 Precipitation Indicators
 Graphs & Data
 NDVI & Precipitation
From FAO:
 FAO Country Profiles

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