Reference Date: 26-July-2023
FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
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Below‑average cereal production harvested in 2023
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Close‑to‑average cereal import requirement expected in 2023/24
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Food price inflation eases reflecting slightly lower global prices
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Below‑average cereal production harvested in 2023
Harvesting of the 2023 main winter grain crops concluded in mid‑July. Cereals, cultivated on slightly over half of the arable land, are almost entirely rainfed and their output is highly variable year‑on‑year depending on rainfall amounts and distribution. Out of the past five agricultural seasons, four were affected by drought with different degrees of intensity.
Following a favourable start of the season between October and December 2022, large areas of the country experienced below‑average rainfall amounts last January. Then, improved rains in February brought some respite to crops in north and western areas of the country. Rainfall returned to significantly below‑average levels in March and April, and high temperatures in April accelerated grain maturation. However, production fared better in some western and central parts of the country due to slightly enhanced rainfall amounts.
As a result of drought conditions, wheat production is estimated at about 4.1 million tonnes, about 17 percent below the five‑year average, but over 60 percent more than the severely drought‑stricken production in 2022. Barley output in 2023 is estimated at 1.35 million tonnes, 20 percent above the five‑year average and almost twice the 2022 harvest.
The government supports wheat production through the establishment of a reference price for purchasing local production. The price for 2023 was set at MAD 3 000/tonne, unchanged from the previous year, up from MAD 2 800/tonne between 2017 and 2021. As of June, the amount was equivalent to USD 300/tonne. The government also provides a storage premium to farmers that decide to store wheat grain in licensed facilities.
In June 2023, the
government
extended the ongoing plan to mitigate the impact of recurrent droughts on the agricultural sector. The support, worth MAD 10 million (equivalent to slightly over USD 1 billion) includes measures for livestock production (including feed), horticultural value chains and the provision of financing for agriculture.
Cereal imports to ease in 2023/24 as domestic production recovers slightly
The country relies heavily on cereal imports to cover its consumption needs. The 2023/24 cereal import requirement (July/June) is forecast at an average level of 8.3 million tonnes, about 5 percent below 2022/23 imports.
Wheat constitutes about 60 percent of the cereal imports. In the past, the European Union and the Black Sea countries supplied most of the common “soft” wheat, although the share of Argentina and Brazil has been increasing. During the past four years, wheat imports from Ukraine and the Russian Federation were about 20 and 7 percent, respectively, of the total imports. In the 2022 calendar year, a negligible 1 percent of total wheat grain imports was sourced from Ukraine and no grains were imported from the Russian Federation.
The country applies tariffs on wheat imports to protect local producers from international competition and revises the duties on a periodic basis depending on the domestic supply and demand situation. Usually, import duties are set at the highest levels at harvest time. Since November 2021, import duties on the “soft” (common) and “durum” wheat have been suspended to encourage stock building. The current suspension remains valid until 31 December 2023.
Due to the excess milling capacity in the country, some quantities of wheat flour, couscous and pasta, are exported to neighbouring countries.
Food price inflation eases, reflecting adjustments in international prices
The country is dependent on grain and energy imports. As the world’s main exporter of phosphate, the value of the country’s phosphate exports doubled in the first quarter 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, supported by high international fertilizer prices. While phosphate prices declined from their peaks, they remain currently above the levels from two years ago and only partially offset the increase in the total import bill resulting from still elevated global food and energy prices.
In spite of the country’s high import dependency rate, the transmission of high international prices on domestic markets is mitigated by government subsidies. In June 2023, the annual food inflation rate was estimated at 13.1 percent, steadily decreasing from the peak of 20 percent recorded in February 2023, the highest level recorded since the beginning of the series in 2010. The general price inflation in June was estimated at 5.5 percent.
Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS)
https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/
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FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool
https://fpma.fao.org/
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FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring
https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/
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Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC)
https://www.ipcinfo.org/
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