Reference Date: 25-August-2017
FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
Wheat output in 2017 is forecast to decrease considerably from last year’s level due to dry weather
Wheat import requirements in 2017/18 marketing year are forecast to sharply increase from previous year’s high level
Prices of beef and mutton increased seasonally in recent months
Wheat output in 2017 forecast to fall from last year’s above-average level due to dry weather
The 2017 wheat crop is currently at the grain filling stage and will be harvested in September. Weather conditions at the start of the season were generally favourable, benefitting planting activities. However, poor rains and high temperatures between June to mid‑August over the main northern cereal‑producing aimags (provinces), negatively affected wheat crop development during the critical growing periods, from the boot through to the heading and grain flowering stages (please see ASI map), causing considerable yield reductions. Therefore, despite an estimated 3 percent increase in wheat plantings to an above-average level of 367 200 hectares, production in 2017 is forecast at 259 000 tonnes, 45 percent down on the good 2016 output, reflecting expectations of the sharply reduced yields.
Cereal import requirements in 2017/18 marketing year forecast to rise sharply
Wheat and rice are the two main imported cereals, mostly purchased from the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan. Cereal imports in the 2017/18 marketing year (October/September) are forecast at 206 000 tonnes, considerably above last year’s level, with wheat, forecast at 175 000 tonnes almost four times higher than in 2016/17, accounting for the bulk of the year-on-year increase. The higher volumes reflect the expected fall in the 2017 production. Imports of rice in 2017, which is not produced domestically, are anticipated to remain close to the previous year’s level of 25 000 tonnes.
Prices of beef and mutton meat increased seasonally in recent months
Prices of beef and mutton, which are main local food staples, have been increasing seasonally since November 2017 in the capital, Ulaanbaatar, reflecting reduced market supplies. Meat prices are usually at their lowest levels during October-December and at their highest between May and July.
Wheat flour prices in Ulaanbaatar have been decreasing slightly between January and May, owing to good market availabilities from the 2016 bumper output.
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