Reference Date: 29-July-2016
FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
Wheat production to recover in 2016 from last year’s sharply‑reduced level
Wheat imports forecast at high level in 2015/16 marketing year (October/September)
Prices of beef and mutton meat decrease in June 2016
Wheat production to recover in 2016 from last year’s sharply reduced level
Rainfall since the start of the season in April has been near average over most of the country, benefitting planting activities and development of crops, which are now in the critical growth stages. According to official sources, total wheat area in 2016 is estimated to have reached a record level of 385 200 hectares. The expansion in plantings is also the result of government support, including exception of excise tax on diesel imports during sowing time, distribution of subsidised fuel, wheat seeds, pesticides, herbicides and fertilizers. Assuming favourable weather for the remainder of the season, the 2016 wheat output is seen to recover to 400 000 tonnes, up 60 percent from the drought‑reduced level in 2015.
Wheat output in 2015 declined sharply due to drought
Official estimates put the 2015 wheat production at 252 300 tonnes, almost 50 percent down from the 2014 record harvest and 37 percent below the average of the previous five years. Despite an expansion in plantings, the output decreased due to prolonged drought, which negatively affected wheat crops during the critical growing period.
Wheat imports forecast to decrease in 2015/16 marketing year (October/September)
Wheat and rice are the two major imported cereals, mainly from the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan. Cereal imports in the 2015/16 marketing year (October/September) are forecast to more than double the previous year’s low level and reach 149 800 tonnes. This mainly reflects higher wheat imports, which are forecast at 120 000 tonnes, three times more than the previous five-year’s average, reflecting the sharply reduced harvest in 2015. Rice imports in 2016 are anticipated to remain close to the previous year’s level at 24 000 tonnes.
Prices of beef and mutton meat decreased in June
Prices of beef and mutton meat in Ulaanbaatar decreased seasonally in June 2016, as new supplies started gradually entering the market. Overall, prices were below their levels in 2015.
Wheat flour and rice prices in Ulaanbaatar remained relatively stable since late 2015, reflecting adequate availabilities mainly from increased imports.