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Reference Date: 24-September-2015

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  1. Wheat output in 2015 estimated to decline sharply from last year’s record due to dry weather

  2. Wheat imports forecast to increase considerably in 2015/16 marketing year (October/September)

  3. Prices of wheat flour were generally stable in July but at high levels

Wheat output in 2015 estimated to decline sharply from last year’s record due to dry weather

Harvesting of the 2015 main season cereals, mainly wheat, barley and oats, is ongoing and will continue until the end of September. According to official sources, total wheat plantings for this year’s harvest reached a record high level of 360 700 hectares, an expansion of 24 percent compared to 2014, reflecting good rainfall during the planting period from April to May and Government support, including partial tax exemption, interest free loans and advance payments for wheat seeds. However, generally poor rains between June to early September over the main northcentral cereal-producing aimags (provinces), including Selenge and Töv, which together account for about 65 percent of national wheat output, negatively affected wheat crops during the critical growing period, from the boot stage through heading and grain flowering (see ASI map). This caused considerable yield reductions and, as a result, latest official estimates for the 2015 wheat production stand at 252 300 tonnes, almost 50 percent down on the 2014 record harvest and 40 percent below the previous five-year average.

Reportedly, the dry weather also negatively affected fodder crops and retarded pasture development, raising concern for the livestock sector, particularly if the country experiences another harsh winter (dzud) that could further aggravate conditions.

Given this unfavourable outlook, it is important to closely monitor developments in the coming weeks/months to ensure that contingency plans are in place that can mitigate possible negative impacts. Meanwhile, the Government plans to allocate MNT 10.6 billion (about USD 5.3 million) to support herders to overcome the potentially-harsh winter ahead. The measures will include replenishment of the State Emergency Reserve Fund (a fund which buys grain, flour and fodder at market prices to maintain emergency reserves for natural disasters) through procurement of fodder crops from companies that suffered a loss due to drought and distribution of an additional amount of fodder to aimags prone to heavy snowfall.

FAO’s Global Information and Early Warning System will continue to closely monitor the situation and assess the potential impact on the food security of the vulnerable population.

Wheat imports forecast to increase considerably in 2015/16 marketing year (October/September)

Wheat and rice are the two major imported cereals, mainly from the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan. Cereal imports in the 2015/16 marketing year (October/September) are forecast to almost double last year’s near-average level and reach 163 000 tonnes. This mainly reflects higher wheat imports, which are forecast at 120 000 tonnes, about three times more than last year’s level, as a result of the decrease of the 2015 harvest. Rice imports in 2015 are anticipated to remain close to last year’s level at 36 000 tonnes.

Prices of wheat flour were generally stable in July but at high levels

Wheat flour prices in Ulaanbaatar were generally stable for the fifth consecutive month in July, but were 10 percent above their year-earlier level. Prices are underpinned by continued strong domestic demand and depreciation of the local currency. Prices of rice showed comparatively stable trends in recent months.

Prices of beef and mutton meat in Ulaanbaatar decreased seasonally, as new supplies start gradually entering the market. Overall, prices were slightly above their year-earlier levels.













Relevant links:
From GIEWS:
 Food Price Data and Analysis Tool
 Earth Observation Indicators
 Maps
 Seasonal Indicators
 Vegetation Indicators
 Precipitation Indicators
 Graphs & Data
 NDVI & Precipitation
 Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM) Reports & Special Alerts: 2007, 2001, 2000, 1997, 1996, 1996
From FAO:
 FAO Country Profiles

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