Reference Date: 12-August-2014
FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
The 2014 wheat harvest is expected to recover from 2013’s below-average output
Wheat imports forecast to increase in the 2013/14 marketing year
Prices of beef and mutton at near-record levels
The 2014 wheat harvest is expected to recover
FAO’s latest forecast for the 2014 wheat production, to be harvested in September, stands at 430 000 tonnes, 17 percent up from last year’s weather-depressed harvest. The good output is mainly attributed to generally favourable climatic conditions between April and mid-August in the main producing areas and a 6 percent expansion in the area planted compared to last year’s reduced level, due to the delayed onset of seasonal rains.
Wheat imports forecast to increase sharply in the 2013/14 marketing year (October/September)
Wheat and rice are the two major imported cereals, mainly from the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan. Cereal imports in the 2013/14 marketing year (October/September) are forecast to increase by more than one-third from last year’s low level, to 155 800 tonnes. The increase reflects larger wheat imports, which are expected to grow by 50 percent to 120 000 tonnes, due to lower domestic availabilities. Rice imports in 2014 are anticipated to remain similar to last year’s average level.
Prices of wheat flour, beef and mutton increase in 2014
Wheat flour prices increased between March and May, due to lower domestic availabilities during the lean season. However, in June prices remained unchanged, partly attributed to decreasing export prices in the Russian Federation, the country’s main supplier. In Ulaanbaatar, the capital’s main market, prices of wheat flour in June were 23 percent above last year’s level. Bread prices, generally subsidized, have remained stable since March 2013 and were lower than those of wheat flour. Prices of rice showed comparatively stable trends in recent months.
Prices of beef and mutton meat in Ulaanbaatar, which have been generally increasing since the beginning of 2014, were at record and near-record levels in June. Continued strong domestic demand, associated with overall economic growth, has supported prices.
According to the Central Bank of Mongolia, the year-on-year inflation rate in June 2014 was 14.6 percent.