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Reference Date: 30-May-2014

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  1. The 2014 wheat harvest forecast to recover

  2. Wheat imports to increase in the 2013/14 marketing year

  3. Prices of beef and mutton at near-record levels

The 2014 wheat harvest forecast to recover

Planting of the 2014 winter wheat crop is nearing completion. The total area planted to wheat this year is officially estimated at a record level of 304 500 hectares, 11 percent above last year’s level, which was reduced due to a delayed onset of seasonal rains. Assuming good weather conditions, and about average yields, FAO’s preliminary forecasts point to a strong recovery from last year’s lows, with the 2014 wheat production increasing by 22 percent to 450 000 tonnes.

Wheat imports forecast to increase sharply the in 2013/14 marketing year (October/September)

Wheat and rice are the two major cereals imported, mainly from the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan. Cereal imports in the 2013/14 marketing year (October/September) are forecast to increase by one-third from last year’s low level and reach 156 000 tonnes. The increase reflects larger wheat imports, which are expected to grow by 50 percent to 120 000 tonnes, due to lower domestic availabilities. Rice imports in 2014 are anticipated to remain at last year’s average level.

Prices of beef and mutton on the increase

The price for wheat flour, which remained relatively stable between December 2013 and March 2014, increased in April, reflecting the peak of the lean season and higher export prices in the Russian Federation, the country’s main supplier. In Ulaanbaatar the capital city market, prices of wheat flour in April were 12 percent above last year’s level. Bread prices, generally subsidized, have remained comparatively stable since March 2013.

Prices of beef and mutton meat in Ulaanbaatar continued their upward trend of the last six months, reaching near-record levels in April. Continued strong domestic demand, associated with the economic growth, is supporting prices.

According to the Central Bank of Mongolia, the overall inflation in April 2014 reached 12.3 percent on yearly basis.











Relevant links:
From GIEWS:
 Food Price Data and Analysis Tool
 Earth Observation Indicators
 Maps
 Seasonal Indicators
 Vegetation Indicators
 Precipitation Indicators
 Graphs & Data
 NDVI & Precipitation
 Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM) Reports & Special Alerts: 2007, 2001, 2000, 1997, 1996, 1996
From FAO:
 FAO Country Profiles

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