Reference Date: 22-January-2013
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FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
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Early prospects for the 2013 wheat crop are favourable
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Above average aggregate cereal crop gathered in 2012
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Rice and wheat prices stabilized
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The overall food security situation is favourable but it remains a concern primarily in Hill and Mountains districts
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Early prospects for the 2013 wheat crop are favourable
Planting of the 2012/13 winter season crops, mainly wheat and barley, was completed in December. Favourable rains since mid-September, supplemented soil moisture benefiting planting while above-normal temperatures over much of the country, except internal areas of Mid-Western Region, aided early development of crops.
Above average aggregate cereal crop gathered in 2012
Harvesting of the 2012 maize crop was competed in September and the output is officially estimated at 2 million tonnes, some 8 percent less than the record harvest in 2011 but slightly above the previous five years average. The decline is mainly the result of dry weather conditions from April to June, which negatively impacted crop development during the emergence and vegetative growing stage. Similarly, the 2012 paddy crop, harvested by mid-December, is officially estimated at above average level of 4.5 million tonnes, some 11 percent below the 2011 record crop. A period of dry weather at the start of the season, localized floods in July and September and reported reduced availability of fertilizer, especially in the western parts of the country are the main reasons behind the contraction of 2012 paddy production. By contrast, latest official estimate puts the 2012 wheat production at a record level of 1.85 million tonnes, some 6 percent up on 2011 previous record output, mainly on account of prolonged and favourable monsoon rains. Overall, the 2012 cereal production is estimated at 8.7 million tonnes, about 7 percent less than the record harvest in 2011, but still some 4 percent higher than the previous five-year average.
The cereal import requirements in the current 2012/13 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at 386 800 tonnes, up on previous marketing year’s 251 800 tonnes. Rice and maize constitute the bulk of the imports, forecast at 200 000 and 150 000 tonnes, respectively.
Rice and wheat prices stabilised in recent months
In the major consumer market of Kathmandu, prices of wheat flour and rice have remained stable in recent months, following Government’s price stabilizing interventions by fixing the maximum retail price of 15 essential commodities, including four types of rice and wheat flour. Retail prices of rice, sugar, edible oil and pulses had increased considerably between July and August, mainly due to higher transport costs following increased fuel prices.
According to latest data from Nepal Rastra Bank the annual consumer price index (CPI) in November 2012 was up 8.3 percent relative to the same period year before. The food and beverages component of the CPI rose by 7.7 percent while that of non-food and services increased by 9 percent.
The overall food security situation is favourable but concerns remain primarily for the Hill and Mountains districts
Overall, the food security situation in the country is satisfactory following good stock levels from the record crop in 2011, the above average 2012 cereal harvest, improved employment opportunities provided by development programmes and relatively regular supply of food to the local markets. However, the overall decrease in total domestic food availability compared to the previous year may affect the food security situation in parts of the Hill and Mountain districts.