Reference Date: 31-May-2012
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FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
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Early prospects for the 2012 main season cereal crops are favourable
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Maize and bean prices lower than a year ago
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Early prospects for the 2012 main season cereal crops are favourable
Sowing of the main 2012 cereal crop, particularly maize, is currently under way. Following a weakening of the la Niña phenomenon in April, generally normal weather conditions are expected during the cropping season. Although rainfall in the first decade of May was below average, weather forecasts suggest that precipitation will be favourable and very close to the average during the growing period. In an effort to promote production in this agricultural season, in April the Government started to distribute 315 000 agricultural input packages, which include white maize seed and fertilizers, as part of the subsidy paid each year to farmers. With this assistance, and favourable rainfall prospects for the next few months, a record output of 1 million tonnes is expected, similar to the projection for the 2011 harvest which was not gathered because of unfavourable weather conditions.
Cereal import requirements decrease in the 2011/12 (July/June) marketing year
Cereal production in 2011 is estimated to have risen by 3 percent compared to the lower level in 2010. In particular, the maize output amounted to 786 000 tonnes, which is close to the average production level. Cereal import requirements are expected to decline by 5 percent in the 2011/12 (July/June) marketing year, compared to the previous year, at a level close to the average of the last five years.
Maize and bean prices much lower than a year ago
In the market of the capital city, San Salvador, maize prices have stabilized at relatively low levels in the past two months, having dropped sharply in the second half of 2011 when the main harvest came in. In April 2012, maize prices were 17 percent lower than a year earlier. In addition, red bean prices have declined sharply from the peak of June 2011; and, despite a slight rise, in April 2012 they were 41 percent lower than twelve months before. By contrast, rice prices have remained relatively stable throughout 2011 and in the first few months of 2012; and in April they were 6 percent higher than a year earlier.