Reference Date: 02-December-2016
FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
Cereal production in 2016 anticipated to recover from last year’s drought‑reduced level
Cereal imports forecast to decline in 2016/17 marketing year (September/August)
Maize and rice prices continued to decline in November, while bean prices increased seasonally
Cereal production in 2016 anticipated to recover from last year’s drought-reduced level
Cereal production in 2016 is forecast to reach 1 million tonnes, a 25 percent increase over last year’s drought-reduced level. The anticipated increase in cereal output mainly reflects a recovery in maize production. Harvest of the main “de primera” season, which represents some 60 percent of the annual maize output, concluded in October. Preliminary official estimates point to a good outcome for the season. Planting of the secondary crop also concluded in October and prospects are favourable, as weather conditions were good and farmers received inputs from the Government, including seeds and fertilizers. The official forecast for the maize crop production in 2016 point to 850 000 tonnes, a bumper level. The 2016 rice crop production is forecast to decline some 5 percent from last year’s good level and reach 37 000 tonnes, as the secondary season was affected by dry weather conditions. However, at this level, output will remain above average.
Cereal imports forecast to decline in 2016/17 marketing year
Cereal imports in the 2016/17 marketing year (September/August) are forecast to decline sharply from last year’s record level, reflecting the positive outlook for the 2016 cereal production. The bulk of the decline stems from lower maize imports for the 2016/17 marketing year (September/August), which are anticipated at 430 000 tonnes, down 38 percent year‑on‑year.
Maize and rice prices continued to decline in November, bean prices increased seasonally
Wholesale prices of white maize in November continued their declining trend of the previous months and were some 21 percent below their levels from a year earlier reflecting ample supplies from the good main season harvest concluded in October. Rice prices also declined from the previous month and from a year earlier, as supplies from the main season harvest began to supply the markets. By contrast, bean prices increased seasonally, as the harvest of the main season crops will not begin until mid-December. However, prices remain some 17 percent below their year earlier levels, reflecting ample supplies from imports and carryover stocks from the harvest in November.