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Reference Date: 05-April-2016

HIGHLIGHTS

  1. Cereal production forecast to decline in 2016 from previous year’s level

  2. Cereal exports in 2015/16 marketing year (July/June) forecast close to previous year’s record high

  3. Domestic prices of wheat and wheat flour remained stable in early 2016

Reduced cereal production forecast in 2016 due to dry weather during winter cereals planting period

Unfavourable weather conditions during the planting period for winter cereals, mainly wheat, for harvest in 2016 led to a significant reduction in area planted. As a result, wheat production in 2016 is forecast to decline by almost 20 percent from the previous year. Spring cereal plantings got underway in late February, earlier than normal because of the unusually warm weather, and areas are expected to increase by 11 percent from 2015 to about 2.6 million hectares, with more area available after the reduced winter planting. Most of the increase is expected in maize, output of which, as a result, is seen rising to 25.6 million tonnes in 2016. Thus, at this early stage, FAO’s forecast for overall cereal production in 2016 stands at about 57.6 million tonnes, 4 percent down from last year but close to the average of the past five years.

Cereal production declined in 2015 from previous year’s record level, but was still above average

FAO’s latest estimate of the 2015 cereal output stands at 60 million tonnes, 6 percent below the record of 2014 but well above the five‑year average. Most of the decrease was on the account of a reduced maize crop, which declined by 18 percent due to reduced plantings and lower yields. Similarly, barley production decreased by 8 percent as a result of a reduction in area in response to high input costs. By contrast, wheat output reached a record level of 26.5 million tonnes in 2016.

Cereal exports in 2015/16 marketing year (July/June) forecast close to previous year’s record high

Total cereal exports in the current 2015/16 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at 34.3 million tonnes, nearly unchanged from the previous year’s record level, supported by the sharp devaluation of the national currency during the marketing year. Wheat and wheat flour exports increased to a record level of 15 million tonnes, up 34 percent from 2014/15.

Domestic prices of wheat and wheat flour remained stable in early 2016

Domestic prices of wheat and wheat flour were generally stable in the first quarter of 2016, after rising for several months as a result of the sharp devaluation of the national currency and worries over the winter wheat conditions. However, with outlook improving for 2016 wheat production, prices stabilized in March, with prices for wheat around their levels of March 2015, while prices for wheat flour were 20 percent below their year‑earlier levels.

Export prices of maize and wheat also declined in March and were below their year‑earlier levels by 3 and 18 percent, respectively, in line with the trends in the international market.











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From GIEWS:
 Food Price Data and Analysis Tool
 Earth Observation Indicators
 Maps
 Seasonal Indicators
 Vegetation Indicators
 Precipitation Indicators
 Graphs & Data
 NDVI & Precipitation
From FAO:
 FAO Country Profiles

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