Reference Date: 15-January-2013
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FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
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Early prospects for 2013 winter cereal crops are favourable
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Sharp reduction of the 2012 cereal production
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Cereal export from Ukraine in marketing year 2012/13 (July/June) remain high
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Cereal prices increased significantly during last year
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Early prospects for 2013 winter cereal crops are favourable
According to official information, winter grains for 2013 harvest were planted on 8.1 million hectares, including some 6.7 million hectares of winter wheat and 1.1 million hectares of winter barley. By the end of December, 92 percent of the crops were reported in satisfactory conditions. Assuming normal weather in the remaining of the agricultural season, the cereal production in 2013 is expected to recover from last year’s reduced level.
Sharp reduction of the 2012 cereal production
A number of factors negatively influenced the area planted and cereal production in 2012. The dry weather during the autumn months was followed by low temperatures and severe frosts in January and February, combined with drought in parts during the summer months. As a result, the 2012 cereal production declined by 20 percent compared to the previous year to a level of 45.3 million tonnes. This included 15.5 million tonnes of wheat.
Cereal export from Ukraine in marketing year 2012/13 (July/June) remain high
In spite of the significant reduced cereal production, exports in 2012/13 (July/June) remained high thanks to ample stocks accumulated from the previous year’s good level. Cereal exports are forecast at over 21 million tonnes of cereals, including 6 million tonnes of wheat, 2.3 million tonnes of barley and 12.7 million tonnes of maize, around the level of the previous marketing year.
Cereal prices increased significantly during last year
Wheat export prices started to increase in 2012 reflecting reduced harvest and surging of international prices and by the end of last year were about 38 percent higher than for the same period of 2011.