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Reference Date: 16-July-2014

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  1. Positive outlook for 2014 cereal production

  2. Cereal exports in the 2013/14 marketing year (July/June) estimated at a record level

  3. Domestic cereal prices at record levels in June

Positive outlook for 2014 cereal production

Harvesting of winter cereals, mainly wheat and barley, is currently underway and will continue until late August, while that of smaller amounts of spring cereals will be concluded by the end of September.

Crop conditions are reported generally favourable. As a consequence of the mild winter temperatures, winter crops have developed one dekad earlier than normal. Spring cereals are slightly ahead of schedule due to the warm temperatures recorded in May. Increased precipitation and above-average rainfall in late June-early July resulted in improved soil moisture in all regions. In the southern and southeastern regions affected by dry weather in previous months, soil moisture considerably improved especially for spring crops. The total planted area under cereals is estimated at 15.7 million hectares, which is slightly below last year’s level and close to the five-year average. Taking into account the current conditions of winter and spring crops, the 2014 aggregate cereal production is forecast at about 57.1 million tonnes, a 9 percent decrease from the previous year’s record level, but still well above average, mainly as a result of a return to more normal yields.

Record cereal exports in the 2013/14 marketing year (July/June)

Ukraine is one of the biggest exporters of cereals. Cereal exports in 2013/14 (July/June) increased by 43 percent compared to the good level of the previous year, to a record level of 32.4 million tonnes. This is mainly as a result of the bumper 2013 cereal production. This includes 9.8 million tonnes of wheat, 2.5 million tonnes of barley and 20 million tonnes of maize, 42 percent, 13 percent and 48 percent, respectively, above the level of the previous marketing year.

In spite of socio-political turmoil, export commitments were fulfilled. In the new 2014/15 marketing year (July/June) total cereal exports are forecast to decrease from the record level of 2013/14 to 27.6 million tonnes.

For the 2013/14 marketing year (July/June), cereal exports are estimated to have increased significantly reaching record levels at 32.4 million tonnes, as a result of a record 2013 cereal production. The exports of maize and wheat in 2013/14 are set at 20 and 9.8 million tonnes, respectively, up 48 and 42 percent on the 20012/13 high level. Similarly, barley shipments have increased by 14 percent to 2.5 million tonnes, but remained considerable below average level.

Domestic cereal prices at record levels in June

Despite favourable prospects for the new wheat crop and the slight decline in export quotations in recent months, domestic prices of wheat products in June were at record levels, in nominal terms, after sharp increases in April and May. Similarly, wholesale prices of maize surged since the beginning of the year and reached all-time highs in June. The increases reflect the strong devaluation of the national currency since early 2014, coupled with the political tensions in the country.









Relevant links:
From GIEWS:
 Food Price Data and Analysis Tool
 Earth Observation Indicators
 Maps
 Seasonal Indicators
 Vegetation Indicators
 Precipitation Indicators
 Graphs & Data
 NDVI & Precipitation
From FAO:
 FAO Country Profiles

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