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Reference Date: 01-June-2015

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  1. Cereal production in 2015 forecast at high level, although below last year's record

  2. Cereal exports in 2014/15 marketing year (July/June) expected at record levels

  3. Domestic prices of wheat and wheat flour declined in May, but still high

Cereal production in 2015 forecast at high level, although below last year’s record

The 2015 winter cereal crops, mainly wheat, rye and barley, to be harvested from July, are currently growing under overall favourable weather conditions, with 90 percent of the wheat crops reported in good and satisfactory conditions. Sowing of spring cereals, mainly maize, is about to finish, and the area planted is expected to contract mainly due to high input costs. Assuming favourable weather conditions continue throughout the cropping season, FAO’s latest forecasts put the 2015 aggregate cereal production at 58.7 million tonnes, an 8 percent decline from last year’s record level but still 11 percent above the country’s five-year average. The 2015 wheat output is anticipated at 22.5 million tonnes, down from last year‘s record level; production of both barley and maize is also expected to decrease by more than 10 percent, due to lower plantings and yields compared to the high levels in 2014.

Cereal exports in 2014/15 marketing year (July/June) expected at record levels

Cereal exports in the 2014/15 marketing year (July/June) are expected at a record of 33 million tonnes, slightly above the previous year’s level, supported by the sharp devaluation of the national currency during the marketing year. Wheat and barley exports are forecast to increase by 16 percent to 11 million tonnes and by 120 percent to 4.4 million tonnes, respectively, while maize exports are projected at 17.5 million tonnes, a decrease of 2 million tonnes, compared to the record level of 2013/14.

Domestic prices of wheat and wheat flour declined in May, but still high

Domestic prices of wheat and wheat flour continued to decline in May pressured by favourable production prospects for the 2015 wheat crop and increased sales ahead of the new harvest. Some strengthening of the national currency added to the downward pressure on prices. Despite recent declines, however, prices remained well-above their year-earlier levels, after sustained increases since late 2014 which were mainly driven by the sharp depreciation of the national currency.

Export prices of maize and wheat also declined in May and were almost one-third below their year-earlier levels, in line with trends in the international market.













Relevant links:
From GIEWS:
 Food Price Data and Analysis Tool
 Earth Observation Indicators
 Maps
 Seasonal Indicators
 Vegetation Indicators
 Precipitation Indicators
 Graphs & Data
 NDVI & Precipitation
From FAO:
 FAO Country Profiles

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