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  Ukraine

Reference Date: 27-April-2017

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  1. Cereal production in 2017 forecast below previous year’s level

  2. Cereal exports in 2017/18 marketing year forecast to decline from previous year’s level

  3. Export and domestic prices of wheat remained stable in April

Cereal production in 2017 forecast below previous year’s level

Unfavourable weather negatively affected planting of winter cereals, mainly wheat and barley, for harvest in mid-2017. Excessive precipitations during October-November delayed the winter plantings that consequently lasted until mid-November. The planted area under winter cereals is officially reported at 6.1 million hectares, down 1 percent from the previous year.

According to the results of a recent Government-led survey of winter cereal crops, crop conditions have improved since growth resumption. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, 37 percent of the crops were in good condition, by the end of February. A month later, the portion of good crops was up at 43 percent. In-time fertilization and sufficient level of precipitations were the main reasons behind this improvement. Therefore, almost no re-seeding of winter wheat was observed this year.

Planting of early spring cereals started later than usual in March due to unfavourable weather. However, by mid-April, the 2017 pace of plantings overcame the 2016 level by 2.4 percent. Assuming an increase in spring wheat plantings to partially compensate for the decline in winter cereal output, FAO’s early forecasts the 2017 cereal output at 61 million tonnes, about 6 percent down from the previous year’s good level.

Cereal exports in 2017/18 marketing year forecast to decline from previous year

Total cereal exports in the 2017/18 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at around 36 million tonnes, down 4 million tonnes from the previous year’s high level. Most of the decline is on account of the expected reductions in shipments of maize following the smaller harvest this year. Maize exports are set at 16.5 million tonnes, down 10 percent from the 2016/17 level. Similarly, wheat exports are expected to decline by 9 percent to 15.5 million tonnes.

Export and domestic prices of wheat remained stable in April

Export prices of wheat remained stable in April, after increasing over the last months, supported by the steady demand from the main importing countries and due to reduced local supplies of high-quality wheat. As a result, export prices of milling wheat were 6 percent higher in April compared to their values three months ago.

Similarly, domestic prices of wheat stabilized in April at 6 percent above the level of three month earlier. Over the past months, prices were underpinned by tightening supplies of milling quality wheat and the weakening of the national currency. Domestic prices of wheat were around 22 percent higher in April than their values of a year earlier.

Export prices of maize declined in April, but were still 5 percent higher their values of January 2017, supported by international quotations and strong import demand.