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Country Briefs


Reference Date: 20-December-2016


  1. Cereal production above average in 2016

  2. Cereal exports in 2016/17 marketing year forecast to decline from previous year’s record high

  3. Export and domestic prices of wheat increased in November

Cereal production above average in 2016

FAO’s latest estimate for total cereal output in 2016 is set at 62 million tonnes, up 4 percent from the 2015 high level. Larger maize and barley crops offset a small decline in wheat production. Wheat output is set to decline to about 26 million tonnes, 2 percent less than in the previous year. By contrast, maize production is estimated at almost 25 million tonnes, around 7 percent up from reduced level of last year following favourable weather and improved yields. Similarly, barley production increased by 15 percent as a result of better yields.

Planting of winter cereals, mainly wheat and barley, with small areas planted to rye, is underway and crops are generally in good conditions.

Cereal exports in 2016/17 marketing year to decline from previous year’s record high

Total cereal exports in the 2016/17 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at around 39 million tonnes, down marginally from the previous year’s record level. Most of the decline is on account of the expected reductions in shipments of wheat following the smaller harvest this year. Wheat exports are set at 15.5 million tonnes, around 53 percent of the total domestic availability. By contrast, maize exports are forecast up 3 percent to 18 million tonnes. Exports of barley are expected to increase to 5 million tonnes, 600 000 tonnes below the 2015 level.

Domestic and export prices of wheat increased in November

Following a small reduction in the 2016 crops and shortages of high-quality wheat, together with strong import demand, supported export and domestic prices of milling wheat in November. Export prices of wheat in Ukraine rose slightly over last month, but were 6 percent below their levels of last year. At this level, prices of wheat remain less competitive on the international market considering that Argentina is now entering the market with its newly-harvested crops and the Russian Federation started to compete with Ukraine in the Indian market. These factors may exert downward pressure on Black Sea region prices in early 2017.

Export prices of maize eased in November as a result of a bumper crop this year.