GIEWS > Data & Tools > Earth Observation
GIEWS - Global Information and Early Warning System

Country Briefs


Reference Date: 03-August-2016


  1. Cereal production above average in 2016

  2. Cereal exports in 2016/17 marketing year forecast to decline from previous year’s record high

  3. Domestic prices of wheat declined in July

Cereal production above average in 2016

Total cereal output is in 2016 is forecast at 59 million tonnes, slightly below the 2015 high level, but still well above the average of the previous five years. A significant decline in wheat production was not completely offset by a larger maize crop, and output of barley, the third most important cereal, declined slightly. Following dry weather in autumn, wheat plantings were reduced by 15 percent. Thus, although good weather during the growing stage helped to ensure satisfactory yields, wheat output is set to decline to about 23 million tonnes, 14 percent less than in the previous year. Similarly, barley production decreased by 2 percent as a result of a reduction in area in response to high input costs. By contrast, maize production is forecast at almost 27 million tonnes, around 14 percent up from reduced level of last year.

Cereal exports in 2016/17 marketing year to decline from previous year’s record high

Total cereal exports in the 2016/17 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at 32.7 million tonnes, down 17 percent from the previous year’s record level. Most of the decline is on account of expected reductions in shipments of wheat and barley, following the smaller harvests this year. Wheat exports are set at 10.5 million tonnes, around 44 percent of total domestic availability, while exports of barley are expected to fall to 3.8 million tonnes, 700 000 tonnes below the 2015 level. By contrast, maize exports are forecast up 6 percent to 18.3 million tonnes.

Domestic and export prices of wheat eased in July

Despite the reduction in wheat output forecast in 2016, prospects for a somewhat better than expected production as the harvest progresses weighed on domestic prices of grain in July. Export prices decreased even further, reflecting ample supplies overall in the Black Sea region. Export prices of maize also eased in July and were 4 percent above their year‑earlier levels.