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Reference Date: 30-September-2015

HIGHLIGHTS

  1. Cereal production declined in 2015 from last year’s record level but was still above average

  2. Cereal exports in 2015/16 marketing year (July/June) forecast close to previous year’s record high

  3. Domestic prices of wheat and wheat flour declined in September, but still high

Cereal production declined in 2015 from last year’s record level but was still above average

Harvesting of the 2015 cereal crops, with the exception of maize, is virtually completed and aggregate output is estimated at 60.2 million tonnes, 5 percent down from the 2014 record level but well above the five-year average. Wheat output increased by 7 percent to the near-record level of 25.8 million tonnes, although grain quality is poorer compared to 2014: about 60 percent of the output is reportedly graded as feed due to adverse weather, mainly in western regions. By contrast, despite higher yields, barley production decreased by 9 percent to 8.2 million tonnes as a result of reduced plantings in response to high input costs. For maize, however, a reduction in area, coupled with lower yields, is expected to result in a significant 14 percent contraction in output to 24.5 million tonnes.

Regarding the winter cereals for harvest in 2016, planting conditions are reported to be generally satisfactory in western and northern parts. By contrast, dry weather persisted in eastern and southern regions, particularly Kherson, delaying planting activities.

Cereal exports in 2015/16 marketing year (July/June) forecast close to previous year’s record high

Total cereal exports in the current 2015/16 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at 32.4 million tonnes, 5 percent below the previous year’s record level but 32 percent above the average of the past five years, supported by the sharp devaluation of the national currency during the marketing year. Wheat exports increased by 7 percent to 12 million tonnes, while barley and maize exports reduced by 28 percent to 3.2 million tonnes and by 6 percent to 17 million tonnes.

Domestic prices of wheat and wheat flour declined in September, but still high

Domestic prices of wheat and wheat flour declined in September due to abundant supply in the market following the 2015 bumper harvest. However, after the sharp devaluation of the national currency in past months some strengthening in September added to the downward pressure on prices. Despite recent declines, however, prices remained well-above their year-earlier levels, after sustained increases since late 2014 due to the devaluation.

Export prices of maize and wheat also declined in September and were almost one-third below their year-earlier levels, in line with trends in the international market.











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From GIEWS:
 Food Price Data and Analysis Tool
 Earth Observation Indicators
 Maps
 Seasonal Indicators
 Vegetation Indicators
 Precipitation Indicators
 Graphs & Data
 NDVI & Precipitation
From FAO:
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