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Reference Date: 23-July-2014

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  1. The 2014 aggregate rice production forecast at a record level

  2. Rice exports expected to increase in 2014

  3. Domestic prices of rice continued to decline in June

The 2014 aggregate rice production forecast slightly above last year’s record level

Harvesting of the 2013/14 mostly irrigated winter/spring paddy crop, accounting for about 45 percent of annual production, was completed in late June. According to the General Statistical Office (GSO) this season’s paddy production is estimated at a record level of 20.8 million tonnes, up 4 percent from last year’s same season bumper crop. This largely reflects record yields due to favourable weather conditions and adequate supplies of irrigation water during the growing season. Harvesting of the 2014 summer/autumn rice crop has just started, while that of the 10th Month will commence in mid-November and continue into December. On average, the summer/autumn and 10th Month harvests account for 32 and 22 percent, respectively, of the annual production. Current indications show a slight contraction in planted area of the two remaining seasons, following the Government’s efforts to shift paddy land to other crops, including maize and soybeans, to avoid paddy over-production and prevent downward pressure on prices. Based on estimates of the already harvested winter/spring crop, and assuming good weather conditions for the remainder of the cropping seasons, FAO forecasts the 2014 aggregate rice production at a record high of 44.5 million tonnes, slightly above the bumper level of 2013.

Harvesting of the bulk of the 2014 maize crop is currently underway and will be completed in late September. Official estimates indicate that, as of June, some 2.5 million tonnes of maize have been already harvested, 8 percent above the output at the same time in 2013. Considering gains already achieved and assuming average yields for the crops still to be harvested, FAO tentatively forecasts the 2014 aggregate maize harvest at a record level of 5.4 million tonnes, up 4 percent from the 2013 bumper output.

Rice exports expected to increase in 2014

The 2014 rice exports are forecast at 7 million tonnes, some 5 percent above last year’s low level. This reflects expectations of another good production in 2014 and higher export demand from Asian countries, including Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia and China, in response to relatively low export prices. According to GSO, rice exports between January and June 2014 reached 3.3 million tonnes, some 6 percent below the level recorded at the same period in 2013.

Cereal imports of the country consist mostly of wheat and maize. During the 2013/14 marketing year (July/June) they were estimated at 2.1 and 1.6 million tonnes, respectively. Overall, cereal imports are set at 4.2 million tonnes, some 6 percent above last year’s above-average level, due to continued strong domestic demand.

Domestic prices of rice continued to decline in June

Wholesale prices of rice, the main staple food in the country, continued in June their declining trend since the beginning of the year, with the arrival into the markets of the 2014 summer/autumn harvest. However, steady import demand, particularly from China limited further price declines. Overall, prices in June, in nominal terms, were up on their levels at the same time a year earlier, in line with the general year-on-year inflation rate of 5 percent (June 2014).











Relevant links:
From GIEWS:
 Food Price Data and Analysis Tool
 Earth Observation Indicators
 Maps
 Seasonal Indicators
 Vegetation Indicators
 Precipitation Indicators
 Graphs & Data
 NDVI & Precipitation
From FAO:
 FAO Country Profiles

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