Reference Date: 03-June-2013
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FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
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Mixed weather conditions at the start of the 2013 cropping season
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Good cereal production in 2012
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Retail prices of wheat are stable in recent months while wholesale prices have surged in April
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Alarming levels of food insecurity across the country; the number of severely food insecure people doubled since 2009
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Mixed weather conditions at the start of the 2013 cropping season
The first season crops, to be harvested from July, are currently in the development stage. According to remote sensing data, rainfall has been below average from March to May in the western highlands (the main cropping areas) and in some western costal parts, while in the rest of the country rains have been average to above average. According to short term rainfall forecasts, rainfall is likely to be average to above average across the country in June, when crops will be in the critical flowering/grain setting phase. As a result, a satisfactory crop performance can still be expected.
Good cereal production in 2012
In 2012, despite below-average rains in parts of the country, coupled with social unrest and insecurity that negatively impacted on agricultural activities, cereal production is estimated at 909 000 tonnes, some 11 percent above the previous year’s level as well as the last five year average. The harvest, however, remained about 10 percent below the record harvest of more than a million tonnes in 2010.
In March 2012 the Government of Yemen approved the National Agriculture Sector Strategy and Investment Plan for 2012-2016. Among the objectives in the agriculture sector are to raise domestic food production through improved input supply, increased farmer awareness, and greater availability of credit; to provide the conditions for higher income to farmers and increased rural employment to fight poverty in rural communities; to preserve environment and natural resources using community participation; and to improve marketing efficiency, decrease post-harvest losses and develop export capacities. The strategy recognises the scarcity of arable land and sustainable water management.
Stable Import Requirements
Yemen is largely dependent on imports from international markets to satisfy its domestic consumption requirement for wheat, the main staple. The import dependency for wheat is about 95 percent. In the last five years, an average of 2.6 million tonnes per annum of wheat was imported commercially out of a total domestic wheat utilization of about 2.7 million tonnes.
As a consequence, the country is highly vulnerable to international commodity price increases and volatility.
The import requirement for wheat and wheat flour in 2011 and 2012 (January/December) marketing year, was about 2.7 million tonnes, about 13 percent up from 2010. Rice and maize imports are estimated almost equally at some 400 000 tonnes.
The continued depreciation of the local currency against the US dollar is having a severe negative impact on the overall value of the food import bill. The country’s capacity to import is also curtailed by the record low levels of foreign exchange reserves.
Retail prices of wheat stable in recent months, wholesale prices surging in April
Average retail prices of wheat and wheat flour were mostly stable in recent months, slightly declining between January and April by 3 and 2 percent, respectively. Compared to 12 months earlier, in April they were 13 and 6 percent lower, respectively. However, average wholesale prices of wheat and wheat flour sharply rose in April, increasing between March and April by 11 and 9.3 percent, respectively, and reaching their highest levels since 2011. The recent prices surges are partly due to conflict in some areas of the south, which have disrupted the functioning of important markets such as Lahj and Aden.
Number of severely food insecure people almost doubled since 2009
The civil unrest that swept the country since early 2011 resulted in a strong economic downturn, with a real GDP contraction estimated between 8 and 14 percent, mainly due to interruptions in oil production, and a significant drop in private and public investments. Persistent civil insecurity throughout the country resulted in the reduction of basic social services, shrinking household resilience, and widespread displacement, with the IDP caseload estimated at 300 000 as of late April.
According to a Comprehensive Food Security Survey by WFP released in June 2012, over 5 million people (22 percent of the population) are severely food insecure and in need of emergency food assistance, and additional 5 million people are “moderately” food insecure and at risk of deterioration in the face of continuing shocks. Child malnutrition rates are among the highest in the world with close to half of Yemen’s children under five years—two million children—stunted and one million acutely malnourished.
To tackle the food insecurity situation, an Emergency Operation (EMOP) has been approved by WFP and FAO on 14 January 2013 to provide emergency food and nutrition support to 5 million food-insecure and conflict affected people through food assistance and cash transfers between 1 January and 31 December 2013. By mid May, the operation has received about 49 percent of its required funding of USD 242 million.