Reference Date: 13-July-2022

Near‑average cereal output expected in 2022

Harvesting of the 2022 winter and spring cereals, mainly winter wheat and barley crops, is ongoing and is expected to be completed by end‑August. As of 4 July 2022, 66 percent of the total area had been harvested.

Precipitation amounts during the season have been overall adequate and well distributed, with an expected positive impact on yields. The total 2022 cereal output is forecast at a near‑average level of 3.3 million tonnes, including 2 million tonnes of wheat and 1 million tonnes of barley.

Wheat import requirements forecast near‑average in 2022/23

In the 2022/23 marketing year (July/June), wheat import requirements, which account on average for more than 90 percent of the total cereal imports, are forecast at 1.2 million tonnes, near the five‑year average volume due to adequate availabilities amid a favourable domestic production outlook.

The country imports wheat mostly from the Russian Federation, however, the share of purchases from Kazakhstan has strongly increased in the first five months of 2022. In Kazakhstan, restrictions on wheat exports were introduced from 15 April 2022 until 15 June 2022 and then extended until end‑September 2022 ( FPMA Food Policy ). Some concerns over the capacity to cover wheat import requirements arise amidst the possibility of new export restrictions.

Prices of wheat flour and potatoes increased in 2022

Retail prices of wheat flour increased steadily between January and May (latest available data), in line with seasonal trends. In May, prices of locally produced wheat flour were near their levels a year earlier, while prices of imported flour were 18 percent higher, reflecting the elevated export quotations in the Russian Federation, the main wheat supplier to the country.

Prices of potatoes, another important staple in the country, increased sharply between July 2021 and May 2022, ahead of the new harvest, with seasonal patterns exacerbated by a surge in demand amid high prices of other staples.

Funds allocated to implement anti‑inflationary measures

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), inflation in 2022 is expected at a high level of 12.3 percent, about 6 percentage points above the 2021 rate. In order to ensure domestic food security, given the high prices of some staple foods, on 23 June 2022, the government allocated AZN 193 million (about USD 113.5 million) in the state budget for 2022 to implement anti‑inflationary measures, including the elimination of customs duties on some imported food products.

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