Reference Date: 23-December-2022

Cereal production in 2022 estimated at record level due to large plantings

Harvesting of the 2022 wheat crop was virtually completed in mid‑December and production is officially estimated at a record level of 9.5 million tonnes. The bumper harvest is due to large plantings, 35 percent above the five‑year average, as farmers responded positively to the high level of domestic prices at planting time.

According to official estimates, the 2022 cereal production sets a new record of 134.6 million tonnes, reflecting above‑average sowings of maize and wheat. While maize output reached an all‑time high at 113.1 million tonnes, paddy production was at a below‑average level 10.8 million tonnes as dryness induced a contraction in plantings.

Conducive weather conditions forecast for 2023 maize and paddy crops

Planting operations of the 2023 minor season maize and paddy crops are nearing completion. Planted area with the 2023 paddy crop is estimated to be over 10 percent below the five‑year average, as some farmers opted to switch to more profitable soybean crops, while soil moisture deficits affected major cropping areas in the south. While the area sown to the minor maize crop is estimated to be near average, plantings of the main season maize crop are officially forecast at a record high, reflecting a continuous expansion in the key producing state of Mato Grosso. Average precipitation amounts are forecast between January and March 2023 in central and southern regions, with positive effects on crop yields.

Cereal exports forecast at record high in 2022/23 marketing year

Exports of maize, the country’s major exportable cereal, are forecast at a record of 40.5 million tonnes in the 2022/23 marketing year (March/February), nearly 35 percent above the previous five‑year average. This is mainly due to the large domestic availability of maize following the record production harvested in 2022. Similarly, the ample supply of the 2022 wheat crop is expected to result in well above‑average exports in 2022/23. Despite the reduction in the exportable surplus, exports of rice in 2022 (January/December) are also estimated at an above‑average level, driven by strong international demand. As a result, cereal exports are forecast at a record level of 44.3 million tonnes in the 2022/23 marketing year.

Prices of wheat more than 10 percent above year‑earlier levels in November 2022

Wholesale prices of wheat declined between August and November 2022 due to the improved seasonal availability of grains from the 2022 bumper harvest. However, as of November, prices were over 10 percent higher year‑on‑year, following the sharp increases during the first half of 2022. Prices of maize have weakened in recent months and were below their values in November 2021, reflecting the 2022 record production. Prices of rice, which declined between April and December 2021, following the above‑average output harvested in 2021, generally weakened in 2022.

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