Reference Date: 31-October-2022

Aggregate cereal production in 2022 forecast near average

Harvesting of the main season maize crop concluded at the end of September while harvesting of rice, millet and sorghum crops is expected to be completed by December. Planting of the secondary maize crop, mostly cultivated in the south, concluded in September and harvesting is expected to take place in December and January. The rainy season started on time in April in the south and progressed towards the north with adequate precipitation amounts, supporting land preparation and crop establishment. Well distributed and above‑average precipitation through October supported soil moisture conditions and was conducive to crop development.

Aggregate cereal production in 2022 is forecast at an average level of 3.1 million tonnes. Production of maize, including the secondary crop, is anticipated at 1.2 million tonnes, nearly 10 percent above the average, reflecting favourable weather conditions and an increase in the planted area. Production of rice is anticipated at 1.7 million tonnes, about 7 percent below the average, in spite of a yearly increase of the planted area, mostly reflecting low yields due to a widespread use of poor‑quality seeds and low application of fertilizers by smallholder farmers.

Above‑average imports of rice in 2021/22

The country relies significantly on cereal imports, mostly rice and wheat, to cover its domestic requirements. In the 2022 calendar year, imports of rice are estimated at 2 million tonnes, nearly 10 percent higher year‑on‑year and over 20 percent above the previous five‑year average, reflecting increased requirements stemming from a below‑average rice production in 2021. Imports of wheat in the 2021/22 marketing year (November/October) are estimated at 400 000 tonnes, 25 percent lower year‑on‑year and 35 percent below the five‑year average, underpinned by high international prices and the interruption of shipments from the ports in the Black Sea Region.

Prices of rice and other food products increased in 2022 and were higher year‑on‑year

Prices of locally produced and imported rice have followed a mild upward trend in 2022 and, as of August 2022, were about 4 and 7 percent, respectively, higher on a yearly basis. Prices of rice were supported by the below‑average output in 2021 as well as increasing production and importing costs, reflecting international trends of prices of energy and food commodities. Prices of meat, eggs, dairy products and vegetable oils have also increased and, as of August 2022, were up to about 20 percent above their year‑earlier levels.

Over 660 000 people estimated to face acute food insecurity

According to the March 2022 “Cadre Harmonisé” (CH) analysis, about 662 000 people were estimated to face acute food insecurity (CH Phase 3 [Crisis] and above) between June and August 2022, about 15 percent above the same period in 2021. The increase in acute food insecurity mainly reflects economic constraints to access food, underpinned by high food prices and low household purchasing power.

The ongoing cereal harvests are expected to improve food availability and access during the remainder of 2022. However, concern remains about the food security situation of households in northeastern areas bordering with Burkina Faso. Here, conflict‑related incidents have intensified since 2019, reflecting a spill over from the central Sahel security crisis, raising the risk of displacements and disruption of agricultural livelihoods. In addition, as of September 2022, about 3 300 refugees from Burkina Faso were estimated to seek shelter in northeastern areas.

New CH estimates of the number of people facing acute food insecurity in the last quarter of 2022 are expected to be released in late November by the Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS).

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