Reference Date: 02-November-2022

Production of cereals in 2022 expected slightly above‑average levels

Harvesting of the 2022 main season maize crops was completed in southern areas in September. In the rest of the country, harvesting of millet, sorghum and rice crops is ongoing and is expected to be concluded by the end of November. Planting of the secondary maize crops in the south was completed in September and production prospects are overall favourable.

Adequate rainfall amounts allowed a timely start of planting activities in March in the south and in May in the north. Cumulative rainfall amounts through October were overall favourable and supported crop development across most parts of the country, resulting in average to above‑average vegetation conditions (NDVI Anomaly map). The planted area to cereal crops is estimated to expand slightly compared to the above‑average level in 2021, supported by the government’s distribution of agricultural inputs at subsidized prices. Furthermore, to facilitate farmers’ access to fields in northern areas affected by insecurity, the government has scaled up the presence of security forces.

The aggregate cereal production in 2022, including an average output of secondary crops to be harvested by January 2023, is preliminarily forecast at 1.43 million tonnes. This is slightly above the previous year’s level and about 6 percent higher compared to five‑year average, reflecting the increase in planted area and high yields.

Above‑average imports of rice and below‑average imports of wheat forecast in 2022

The country relies on cereal imports to cover its consumption needs. In the 2022 calendar year, imports of rice are anticipated at 320 000 tonnes, a 15 percent yearly increase and over 50 percent above the five‑year average, reflecting the need to bolster supply, amid growing domestic and export demand. Imports of wheat in 2022 are forecast at 100 000 tonnes, nearly half the high level in 2021 and about 35 percent below the five‑year average due to high international prices and the interruption of shipments from the ports in the Black Sea Region.

Prices of coarse grains above year‑earlier levels, in spite of seasonal declines

Prices of locally produced maize and sorghum were overall stable or declined between June and September, mainly due to the commercialization of the newly harvested crops. However, in September, prices were still about 10 percent above their year‑earlier levels, supported by strong domestic and export demand, and increased production costs. Prices of imported rice were generally stable in 2022 and remained near their year‑earlier levels.

About 390 000 people estimated to be acute food insecure in 2022

According to the March 2022 Cadre Harmonisé (CH) analysis, about 390 000 people were estimated to face acute food insecurity (CH Phase 3 [Crisis] and above) between June and August 2022, nearly doubling the estimated level for the same period in 2021. Households facing acute food insecurity are mostly located in northern areas.

The sharp increase in acute food insecurity levels is mainly due to the high food prices that have severely constrained access to food, especially during the lean season, and the lingering negative economic effects of the COVID‑19 pandemic on rural livelihoods. In April and May 2022, the government implemented a number of measures aiming to improve the food security conditions of the most vulnerable households, including Valued added tax (VAT) exemptions and price ceilings for imported and locally produced basic food commodities. These measures will remain in place until further notice.

The ongoing cereal harvests are expected to improve food availability during the remainder of 2022. However, the food security situation of households in northern areas bordering with Burkina Faso remains a concern. This is due to an increase in attacks by non‑state armed groups, particularly between June and July 2022. The deterioration of security conditions, underpinned by a spread of the security crisis in the central Sahel, has raised the risk of displacements and disruption of agricultural livelihoods and prompted the government to declare a state of emergency between June 2022 and March 2023 in northern Savanes Region. According to the Agence Nationale de Protection Civil, as of October 2022, about 5 000 people were estimated to be internally displaced, while the country also hosted over 5 000 refugees, mainly from Burkina Faso.

New CH estimates of the number of people facing acute food insecurity in the last quarter of 2022 are expected to be released by the Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS) in late November.

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