Reference Date: 21-October-2025

Cereal production forecast at below‑average level in 2025

Harvesting of the 2025 main cereal crops, which account for about 90 percent of the annual output and consist mostly of paddy and maize, is underway and is expected to conclude by December, while the other winter and spring cereal crops, mainly wheat and barley, were harvested in the first half of the year. Aggregate cereal production in 2025 is forecast at 73 000 tonnes, about 7 percent below the previous five‑year average. The reduced output reflects the gradual decline in planted area of rice and maize crops since 2017, driven by a shift in the use of land towards more profitable vegetables and cash crops as well as infrastructure development. However, yields of both crops are forecast at average levels, supported by generally favourable weather conditions throughout the cropping season. Localized crop losses occurred in several other cereal producing areas due to dry weather conditions in June and early July, and in southern and western parts of the country as a result of floods and landslides in October 2025. In addition, floods and landslides caused losses of livestock and food stocks as well as damage to housing and infrastructures, including roads, bridges and schools.

Cereal import requirements forecast at above‑average level in 2025/26 marketing year

The country relies heavily on cereal imports, mostly from India, as local production covers only about two‑thirds of the national consumption needs. Cereal imports consist mostly of rice plus small quantities of maize and wheat. In the 2025/26 marketing year (July/June), total cereal import requirements are forecast at 163 000 tonnes, about 25 percent above the five‑year average, reflecting the reduced domestic cereal output in 2024 and 2025, and the increasing levels of human consumption.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:

FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .