Reference Date: 25-March-2026

Early-season dry weather conditions hampered cereal planting operations

Planting of 2026 cereal crops, mainly wheat and barley, was completed last December. Early-season dry weather conditions between October and November hampered planting operations and delayed crop establishment. The government restricted the area irrigated with surface water due to water shortages. However, the late onset of rains in December partially replenished soil moisture and supported crop development. In January 2026, rainfall amounts remained above average in the main northern producing governorates, including Dahuk, Erbil, Ninewa and Sulaymaniya, while below-average rainfall amounts were recorded in the rest of the country. As of end-February 2026, geospatial indicators point to generally favourable crop conditions, ranging from near to above average. These conditions are supported by abundant rainfall in the north, the availability of irrigation systems and the provision of government-subsidized inputs. Conducive weather conditions for the remainder of the season remain critical to maintain positive yield prospects. Despite subsidies, input prices, particularly for fertilizers and fuel, remain a concern for farmers, amid rising risks of supply chain disruptions and higher international energy, and fertilizer costs following the escalation of regional conflicts in late February 2026.

Below-average wheat harvest estimated in 2025

The wheat harvest in 2025 is officially estimated at 4.4 million tonnes, about 4 percent below the average. The official production estimate excludes Kurdistan Region (KRI) and some villages in the governorates of Ninewa, Kirkuk, Diyala, Anbar and Salah al-Din. Dry weather conditions between October 2024 and February 2025 constrained crop establishment and early development. Despite improved rainfall in the spring, it was insufficient to offset early moisture deficits.

Above-average import requirements forecast in 2025/26

Wheat import requirements for the 2025/26 marketing year (July/June) are estimated at about 2.4 million tonnes, nearly 8 percent above the five-year average, mirroring the domestic production shortfalls in 2025.

Retail wheat flour and rice prices decreased year-on-year in February 2026

National average prices of wheat flour and rice decreased by about 6 and 8 percent, respectively, in February 2026 compared to 12 months before, reflecting adequate domestic supply and the implementation of the government’s subsidy programme that helped stabilize food prices and supported household access to staple food commodities.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .