Reference Date: 23-September-2025

Near‑average wheat production forecast in 2025

Wheat harvest was completed by July 2025 with production estimated at 4.5 million tonnes, near‑average levels. Below‑average rainfall amounts between October 2024 and February 2025 limited soil moisture levels and affected yields. Although rainfall improved in March and April, water deficits persisted. Modern irrigation systems and high‑yielding seed varieties helped to mitigate losses but were not sufficient to offset early moisture stress. In key producing provinces in the north, including Ninewah and Erbil, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data in June indicated below‑average vegetation conditions, inferring moisture stress. By contrast, in central and southern provinces, crop conditions were favourable, supported by modern irrigation systems drawing mainly on groundwater resources and government‑supported agricultural inputs which are provided regularly under the national subsidy programme.

Rice planting took place between June and July 2025, however, dry weather conditions and shortage of water, leading to planting restrictions, are expected to keep area planted constrained and production forecast severely limited. In Najaf, a major rice producing province, authorities implemented a rice cultivation ban in May 2025 in response to severe water shortages. The measure aims to acute water for essential uses, prioritizing drinking water and the production of crops with low water requirements.

Wheat import requirements anticipated at above‑average levels in 2025/26

Wheat import requirements for the 2025/26 marketing year (July/June) are preliminary forecast at 2.4 million tonnes, about 8 percent above the average, reflecting less than anticipated local wheat harvest in 2025.

Retail wheat flour and rice prices slightly above last year in August 2025

National average wheat flour and rice prices were stable in August 2025 compared to the previous month but remained about 4 percent and 2.4 percent, respectively, higher than a year earlier. This reflects adequate local supply availability and the government’s annual subsidy programme, which helps keep key commodity prices stable.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .