Reference Date: 01-September-2026

Above‑average cereal production anticipated in 2026 largely driven by favourable rainy season

Winter cereal harvest started in mid‑May and was completed in July 2026. Following the dry weather conditions at the beginning of the season, rainfall improved between December 2025 and April 2026, replenishing soil moisture, raising water levels in reservoirs used for irrigation and supporting crop yields, particularly in the main cereal producing northern provinces. Government support through subsidized seeds and modern irrigation systems contributed to boost wheat production. By contrast, crop conditions remained poor in some southern and southeastern areas, where the government reduced the area irrigated with surface water by 50 percent as part of efforts to conserve scarce water resources. Total cereal production in 2026, excluding the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI), is estimated at about 6.5 million tonnes, nearly 30 percent above the five‑year average. Wheat production, which accounts for the largest share of cereal output, is estimated at 5.6 million tonnes, about 34 percent above the five‑year average. Barley production is estimated at 160 000 tonnes, about 5 percent above the five‑year average, while rice production is forecast at 360 000 tonnes, more than double the average level. Maize production is estimated at about 300 000 tonnes, close to the previous year’s level.

Near‑average cereal import requirements forecast in 2026/27

Cereal import requirements for the 2026/27 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at 5.5 million tonnes, slightly below the five‑year average. Wheat import requirements are preliminarily forecast at 2.2 million tonnes, about 10 percent below the average, reflecting the anticipated above‑average wheat harvest in 2026. Maize import requirements are forecast at 1 million tonnes, about 13 percent above the five‑year average, mainly reflecting the sustained demand for feed by the livestock sector. Rice import requirements are forecast at about 2 million tonnes, slightly below the five‑year average, mirroring the anticipated above‑average domestic rice production in 2026.

Retail wheat flour and rice prices remained broadly stable in June 2026

Retail prices of wheat flour and rice fluctuated during the first half of 2026 but remained broadly at the same levels as a year earlier, supported by adequate domestic market availability during the wheat harvest season and continued government market interventions to limit price fluctuations of staple foods. In June 2026, wheat flour prices were about 4 percent lower than a year earlier, while rice prices remained broadly unchanged year‑on‑year.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:

FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .