Reference Date: 28-August-2025

Wheat crop output forecast at above‑average level in 2025

Harvesting of the mostly irrigated 2025 wheat crop finalized in June and production is officially estimated at 29 million tonnes, about 5 percent above the five‑year average. The area planted is estimated at an above‑average level, supported by government incentives, including subsidies for agricultural inputs, distribution of high‑yielding seeds and interest ‑ free loans through the Kissan Card initiative. However, the area planted declined by 6.5 percent compared to the previous year as the removal of the Minimum Support Price (MSP) since May 2024, combined with low domestic wheat prices at planting time, led some farmers to shift to more profitable vegetables and cash crops, including oilseeds, condiments and vegetables. In irrigated areas, yields are estimated to be above average, but dry weather conditions caused crop losses in rainfed areas, which account for about 20 percent of wheat plantings, and in some irrigated areas in northern parts due to shortage of irrigation water.

Planting of the 2025 paddy crop finalized in early August. In some areas, farmers undertook replanting operations following severe localized flooding between June and early August. The floods and landslides particularly affected northern and northwestern areas, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, as well as parts of Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan provinces, resulting in localized crop losses and disruption of agricultural livelihoods. Overall, plantings are estimated at an above-average level, driven by attractive domestic prices at planting time. Planting of the 2025 maize crop is underway and it is expected to finalize by the end of August. Plantings are forecast to be below average due to low farmgate prices, which have prompted some farmers to shift from maize to more profitable vegetables and cash crops, including mustard and pulses.

Wheat imports in 2024/25 estimated significantly below five‑year average level

In the 2024/25 marketing year (May/April), wheat imports were significantly below the five-year average after the introduction in July 2024 of an import ban on wheat grain with the aim to support local farmers. In July 2025, the government also put a ban on exports of wheat flour, including flour made from imported wheat, wheat products, refined flour and semolina, which is still in place as of early August 2025.

Exports of rice, the country’s major exportable cereal, are preliminarily forecast at 5.5 million tonnes in calendar year 2025. Exports of maize in the 2025/26 marketing year (April/March) are preliminarily forecast at an average level of 500 000 tonnes.

Wheat flour prices at low levels in July 2025

Domestic prices of wheat flour, the country’s main staple food, declined by about 50 percent between March 2024 and July 2025. The decline in prices reflects abundant market availability driven by consecutive good harvests and large imports in 2023/24, as well as by the government’s decision, since 2024, to cease wheat procurement from farmers at an MSP. The abolition of the MSP was part of a broader package of economic reforms required by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as a condition to secure a USD 7 billion bailout approved in September 2024.

Acute food insecurity improved between April and July 2025

According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis , about 10 million people were estimated to face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 [Crisis] and above) between April and July 2025, down from 11 million people during the November 2024 to March 2025 period. The improvement mainly reflects the availability of the newly‑harvested 2025 wheat crop and the year‑on‑year decline in wheat flour prices, which enhanced households’ access to food.

Nevertheless, the acute food insecurity level remains elevated due to persistent economic challenges, limited livelihood opportunities and recurrent climatic shocks, including floods and drought. In addition, the flooding and landslides between June and August 2025 caused severe losses of livestock and food stocks, damaged housing and infrastructures, contributing to the food insecurity, which will be reflected in the upcoming IPC analysis planned in November 2025.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .