Reference Date: 20-December-2024

Cereal output in 2024 estimated slightly above average, but below pre‑crisis period

Harvesting of the 2024 main maize crop is currently underway and is expected to be concluded in December. Production is estimated at slightly above the previous five-year average as the agricultural sector is progressively recovering from the economic recession, that led to a record low output of maize in 2020. The improved macroeconomic conditions in the first half of 2024 increased the availability of agricultural inputs, but persisting diesel shortages, asset deterioration and lack of fundings still inhibited planting intentions and hampered agricultural activities. However, average to above-average precipitation amounts in the main maize producing regions of Guarico, Portuguesa, Barinas and Yaracuy provided conducive soil conditions for planting operations and for crop development between May and September 2024. The harvest started in October when crop conditions were generally good, pointing to favourable production prospects (VHI map).

Paddy output in 2024, with harvesting of the minor crop which finalized in November 2024, is anticipated above the previous five-year average, as the increase in international quotations encouraged farmers to expand planted area. In addition, adequate availability of water for irrigation in the main centralwestern producing areas favoured crop yields.

Overall, despite higher than the previous five-year average, cereal production in 2024 is estimated below the levels assessed in the pre-crisis period (2010–2014), when the country’s average output was about 3.4 million tonnes.

Planting of the 2025 main paddy and minor maize “Verano” season started in early October 2024, amid dry weather conditions in the main producing regions. Abundant precipitation prospects for the December 2024 to February 2025 period, coinciding with crop emergence and maturation stages, are likely to restore adequate soil moisture levels and favour crop productivity. Planted area is estimated above the average, as the year‑on‑year increase in international prices supported farmers’ planting intentions.

Cereal import requirements for 2024/25 marketing year (July/June) forecast near average, although lower year‑on‑year

In the 2023/24 marketing year (July/June), cereal imports were estimated to reach a five‑year high, primarily to cover growing domestic demand for maize and wheat. The temporary lift of international sanctions on oil, gas and gold transactions, announced by the United States Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) in October 2023 and applied until the end of May 2024, improved macroeconomic conditions, with lower inflation rates and a less volatile national currency, allowing imports to rise. Cereal import requirements in the 2024/25 marketing year (July/June) are forecast near the five‑year average, reflecting large national stocks from the 2024 above‑average production.

Temporary lift of economic sanctions in November 2023 improved macroeconomic conditions

Economic recovery continued for the fourth consecutive year, with a gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 6.2 percent estimated for 2024 . The lift of economic sanctions on oil, gas and gold transactions in October 2023 boosted national economic activities and supported macroeconomic recovery. Increased export earnings restored foreign reserve levels, allowing the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) to maintain stability in the foreign exchange market, through the injection of foreign currency, primarily United States dollars, into the national banking system. As a result, the annual inflation fell from 318.1 percent in September 2023 to 24.9 percent in September 2024, the lowest rate since the start of the crisis in 2014, improving household purchasing power and access to food. However, about 7.6 million people were estimated in need of humanitarian assistance in 2024 .

After 2024 presidential elections in July, high demand for foreign currency widened the gap between official and parallel market exchange rates. In October 2024, the national currency started to depreciate, as the government allowed it to float after nine months of fixed official exchange rate . The country’s capacity to import may be limited and possible upward pressure on inflation is likely to have a negative impact on household purchasing power.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .