Reference Date: 29-December-2025

Production of 2025 main maize crop expected at below-average level

Harvesting of 2025 main winter season maize crop is heading to conclusion and production is expected at a below‑average level. Plantings, which are mainly concentrated in the centralwestern regions of Portuguesa, Guárico and Barinas, are estimated below the five‑year average, limited by high prices of diesel, seeds and other agricultural inputs. The macroeconomic instability, coupled with reduced access to finance and low profitability of maize grains, further discouraged sowings. Above-average precipitation amounts from May to July 2025 delayed planting operations and hampered crop emergence, thus curbing yields. In June 2025, torrential rains caused localized floodings and landslides in the main cropping Portuguesa State, affecting livelihoods and damaging standing crops .

The 2025 secondary winter paddy crop was harvested last November and the aggregate 2025 output, including the main season crop harvested between February and May, is estimated above the five-year average. Higher year-on-year domestic prices resulted in an expansion of the area planted for the fifth consecutive year in the main producing Portuguesa, Guárico, Barinas and Cojedes regions. Abundant rainfall amounts at development stage provided adequate availability of irrigation water for both seasons, benefitting crop yields.

Aggregate cereal production in 2025 is estimated above the five‑year average, although remaining below the levels of the pre‑crisis period (2010‑2014), when the country’s output was about 3.4 million tonnes on average.

Expected abundant precipitation in first trimester of 2026 likely to boost yields

Sowing of the 2026 minor maize and main paddy crops is nearing completion. Satellite imagery points to below-average vegetative conditions (red areas in VHI Map) in key producing states of Barinas, Cojedes, Portuguesa and eastern Guárico, mainly due to localized erratic precipitations and high temperatures in November 2025. However, weather forecasts point to a high likelihood of average to above‑average rainfall amounts during the first trimester of 2026, likely favouring crop development and boosting yield prospects.

Above-average cereal import requirements anticipated in 2025/26 marketing year

Import requirements of cereals in the 2025/26 marketing year (July/June) are anticipated about 35 percent above the five-year average, reflecting the growing population since 2023 and production shortfalls in 2025. The growing import demand is primarily driven by the steady rise of wheat and white maize demand for human consumption, as well as by higher year-on-year demand for yellow maize. The growing poultry industry also contributed to increase maize import requirements.

About 7.9 million people estimated in need of humanitarian assistance at end-2025

As of December 2025, about 7.9 million people were estimated in need of humanitarian assistance . Limited access to imported goods, essential services and the upward pressure on domestic prices continue to deteriorate livelihoods and purchasing power of the most vulnerable households. According to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, the annual growth rate of the real Gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated at 2 percent in 2025 . After contracting from 2014 to 2020, the economy grew for the fifth consecutive year in 2025, although less than the previous year. The lower year-on-year economic growth is primarily due to the negative impact of international economic sanctions on oil production and exports, curbing foreign reserves levels.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .