Reference Date: 08-September-2025

Cereal production likely to be negatively affected by adverse weather conditions in 2025

The harvest of the 2025 cereal crops is expected to start in late September and production is forecast at about 400 000 tonnes, about 15 percent below the average, as prolonged dry weather conditions and high temperatures since the start of the season in March constrained planted area and adversely affected yields. The greatest losses are expected in the governorates of Ibb, Lahij, Taizz, Al Dhale’e, Dhamar, Marib, Hadramout and Amran. Cumulative rainfall amounts between March and July 2025 were significantly delayed and were below the average in key rainfed producing regions of Amran, Hajjah, Marib and Sana’a. Abundant rainfall amounts at the beginning of the Kharif season in August improved soil moisture conditions, but were late and caused some localized floods with damages to irrigation channels and infrastructure. In addition, crop production has been undermined by the ongoing conflict which disrupted agricultural activities and by the high costs of inputs, which constrained famers’ access to fuel, agricultural inputs and pesticides.

Livestock keepers are increasingly struggling to secure food. After years of conflict, herd sizes have fallen by more than 50 percent due to disease, mortality and distress sales. Delayed and insufficient seasonal rains have prevented rangeland recovery and limited water access, resulting in below‑average milk yields, poor animal body condition, depressed market prices, reduced incomes and a diminished ability for livestock households to afford food.

Cereal imports forecast at near‑average levels in 2025

Cereal imports in the 2025 marketing year (January/December) are forecast at a near-average level of 5.2 million tonnes, driven by the anticipated above‑average rice imports offset by lower volumes of wheat and maize. Wheat imports will largely depend on the capacity of commercial importers, as wheat is the staple commodity for bread production. However, the ongoing conflict and ripple effects of port destructions, economic downturn, import restrictions, international financial restrictions, monetary policy instability and limited foreign currency reserve remain challenging for the country to buy cereals from international markets.

Over half of population projected to face severe acute food insecurity in 2025/26

According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, between September 2025 and February 2026, 18.1 million people, 52 percent of the population analysed, are expected to face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 [Crisis] and above), including 5.5 million people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency). This is largely driven by the ongoing conflict, macro‑economic downturn, lack of income opportunities as well as constrained access to humanitarian assistance due to funding cuts, damaged essential infrastructure, insecurity, climatic variability and restriction of movements of goods and people, particularly in Sana’a Based Authorities controlled areas.

In areas under the internationally recognized government, the Yemeni rial depreciated to a new record low against the United States dollar in June 2025, down by more than 30 percent year‑on‑year. The sharp currency depreciation drove food and fuel prices to record highs, further weakening households’ purchasing power and constraining access to essential goods. In Hadramout Market, within the areas controlled by the Government of the Republic of Yemen, prices of wheat flour surged by about 40 percent in July 2025 compared to 12 months before. According to the latest Yemen Market and Trade Bulletin , food and financial markets are expected to experience heightened instability and uncertainty in the wake of the Central Bank Yenem’s in Aden implementing new foreign exchange and import regulations. According to a recent World Bank report, at least 74 percent of the population is currently living in extreme poverty, reflecting the worsening economic hardship across the country.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .