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Country Briefs

  Burkina Faso

Reference Date: 24-January-2019

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  1. Above-average harvest gathered in 2018

  2. Strong economic growth rate and declining inflation rate

  3. Prices of coarse grains declining in most markets

  4. Food assistance to be continued for people affected by insecurity

Above-average harvest gathered in 2018

Harvesting activities of the 2018 millet and maize crops have almost finalized, while harvesting of off-season rice and sorghum will start in early March and will be completed by end-April. the national cereal production is estimated at 4.9 million tonnes, 12 percent above the average of the last five years and about 22 percent above the previous year’s poor output. Major year-on-year production increases have been registered for millet and sorghum.

Above-average rainfall amounts over most of the country resulted in good pasture conditions. The 2018 fodder balance shows a supply of 19 million tonnes of dry matter against the 17 million tonnes estimated for the theoretical total needs of the resident livestock, with a consequent forage surplus of about 2 million tonnes. However, this availability is unevenly distributed across all provinces and 17 out of 35 provinces are declared to be in deficit. In these areas, with the start of the pastoral lean season in March 2019, livestock body conditions are expected to deteriorate and animal/cereals terms of trade for pastoralists are expected to worsen.

Strong economic growth rate and declining inflation rate

According to the Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU), the economic growth is expected to remain strong and relatively stable at an average of 6.1 percent in 2019 driven mostly by the high levels of public investment, improved political stability, good prospects in the agricultural and mining sectors and improved power supply. The average consumer price inflation rate is forecast at 1 percent in 2019, down from the 1.3 percent reported in 2018, reflecting stable domestic demand and food prices as well as an expected moderate strengthening of the local currency.

Prices of coarse grains seasonally declined on most markets

Food availability is gradually improving with the new harvest. The overall demand for staple cereals on the local markets is relatively stable, with most households relying on their own production for food consumption. In general, staple food prices for cereals, including maize, millet and sorghum, have declined in December 2018 compared to the previous month and one year earlier. Prices of imported rice remained relatively stable due to the regular supply from the internationnal market.

Livestock markets are also well supplied. The export demand of animals is declining , especially due to the persisting civil conflict in Nigeria. Domestic livestock prices remained generally below last year’s level and the terms of trade for livestock/grain remained weak compared to December 2017.

Insecurity increases the need for assistance of affected populations

The security situation continued to deteriorate in December 2018, particularly in the eastern regions and the Sahel, where about 137 security incidents have been recorded according to UN-OCHA as of November 2018. Terrorist threats and attacks also resulted in about 41 000 internally displaced persons, of which 86 percent are based in the province of Soum. In addition, about 23 500 refugees, mostly from Mali, are still residing in the Sahel region.

According to the November 2018 “Cadre Harmonisé” analysis, about 307 000 people are estimated to be in need of food assistance from October to December 2018, up from 133 000 people in October-December 2017. This figure is expected to increase to 676 000 people during the June to August 2019 period, if mitigation measures are not taken.

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