Reference Date: 11-July-2012
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FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
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Early indications point to a recovery of the 2012 wheat crop
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The 2012 maize output estimated at record level
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Prices of bread and potatoes decline
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Early indications for the 2012 wheat crop point to a recovery in production
Sowing of the 2012 wheat crop is underway in the key growing areas of the Araucanía, Bío Bío and Maule Regions. The area planted is anticipated to decrease for the second consecutive year in response to low domestic prices
and relatively higher prices of alternative crops, particularly maize. However, assuming a return to normal yields from the reduced level of 2011, negatively affected by above normal temperatures during the season, the 2012 wheat output is tentatively forecast to increase by some 8 percent to 1.35 million tonnes.
Harvest of the 2012 maize crop was completed in May and production is estimated at about 1.6 million tonnes or 8 percent higher than in 2011. This is the result of an increase in plantings, reflecting high prices, which more than offset a reduction in yields caused by a dry spell, associated with La Niña weather pattern, in the centre-north zone during late 2011 and early 2012.
Imports of maize to decline
Maize import requirements in the 2012/13 (February/January) marketing year are anticipated to decline compared to the previous year following the 2012 bumper crop and the average level of the past five years. The lower maize imports reflect also the substitution of maize with cheaper feed crops, such as sorghum.
By contrast, wheat import requirements in 2011/12 (December/November) marketing year are expected at a high level of about 840 000 tonnes or 12 percent above average, following the reduced 2011 crop.
Prices of bread and potatoes decline
Bread prices on the Santiago market declined slightly in May but were 4 percent higher than a year earlier. Potato prices have declined in the past five months from the peaks reached in January following a drought-reduced harvest in the centre-north zone. The decline in prices reflects improved availabilities from the new harvest in the main southern producing areas; however, prices still remained 72 percent above their levels in June 2011.