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Reference Date: 18-July-2016


  1. Cereal production in 2016 forecast at high level

  2. Cereal imports to decrease sharply in 2016/17 marketing year

  3. Rice and maize prices stable in June

Cereal production in 2016 forecast at high level

Harvest of the 2016 maize crop is well advanced and latest forecasts point to an output of 1.6 million tonnes, 5 percent below last year’s bumper crop, but still above the five‑year average. The small decline in maize production expected this year mainly reflects the effects of fungal and viral infections on the crop in the provinces of Los Rios, Guayas, and Manabi. While no official information on losses is yet available, preliminary reports point to harvest losses as high as 40 percent in most affected areas. In June, the Government declared a state of emergency for maize production in these provinces. The 2016 rice harvest is virtually concluded and initial estimates point to an output similar to last year’s above‑average level. Strong price support and the provision of inputs by the Government helped maintain rice output. Total cereal production in 2016 is anticipated to reach 2.8 million tonnes (paddy equivalent), or slightly below the bumper level of 2015.

Cereal imports to decrease in 2016/17 marketing year

Cereal imports in the 2016/17 marketing year (July/June) are forecast to decrease some 2 percent, to 744 000 tonnes. The decline reflects the trend of the past several years in response to Government policy to strongly support agricultural production, particularly rice and maize, in its goal to achieve self‑sufficiency.

Rice and maize prices stable in June

Yellow maize prices in June increased mainly supported by deteriorating prospects for the 2016 second season maize crop affected by pest and fungal infestations. However, in main markets, Guayaquil and Quito, prices still remained well below their level from a year earlier. Rice prices were also relatively stable in June, however, prices remain well above their levels a year earlier.

Relevant links:
 Food Price Data and Analysis Tool
 Earth Observation Indicators
 Seasonal Indicators
 Vegetation Indicators
 Precipitation Indicators
 Graphs & Data
 NDVI & Precipitation
From FAO:
 FAO Country Profiles

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