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Reference Date: 30-December-2015

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  1. Cereal production in 2015 forecast below last year’s high level

  2. Cereal imports forecast to increase during 2015/16

    marketing year

  3. Prices of maize and beans declined in November

Cereal production in 2015 forecast below last year’s high level

Cereal production in 2015 is forecast at almost 1.8 million tonnes, 5 percent lower than last year’s record level and about average. Prolonged and severe dry weather associated with the prevailing strong El Niño event, during the “de primera” season (May/September) reduced yields in the dry corridor of the country, which represents some 4 percent of total production. However, in the major producing northern department of Peten, where planting of the second season maize crop recently concluded, a recovery in rains since November allowed sowings to proceed almost as normal. Production of rice, harvested in September and October is estimated to have recovered from 2014’s reduced level mainly due to increased yields, as the availability of adequate water reserves for irrigation permitted a normal development of the crop. The current cereal production forecast might be revised upwards pending the outcome of the second season maize harvest to begin in February.

Cereal imports forecast to increase during 2015/16 marketing year

Cereal imports for the 2015/16 marketing year are forecast to increase from the previous year by almost 5 percent. This mainly reflects the projected growth in maize imports, expected to reach 900 000 tonnes, to satisfy the sustained demand from the animal feed industry and to compensate for the drought‑reduced first season harvest. By contrast, purchases of wheat, the country’s second most important cereal import, are anticipated to remain virtually unchanged from last year’s level at 585 000 tonnes.

Prices of maize and beans declined in November

Wholesale prices of white maize continued to generally decrease in November and were lower than at the same time last year reflecting adequate availabilities. Improved prospects for the second season maize crop, to be harvested from February, added to the downward pressure.

Black bean prices, the variety mostly produced and consumed, declined in November reflecting this year’s good harvest, but were only slightly below their year‑earlier values.









Relevant links:
From GIEWS:
 Food Price Data and Analysis Tool
 Earth Observation Indicators
 Maps
 Seasonal Indicators
 Vegetation Indicators
 Precipitation Indicators
 Graphs & Data
 NDVI & Precipitation
 Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM) Reports & Special Alerts: 2010
From FAO:
 FAO Country Profiles

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