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Reference Date: 22-June-2016

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  1. Cereal production in 2016 anticipated to recover from drought-reduced levels

  2. Cereal imports forecast to decline in 2016/17 marketing year (July/June)

  3. Prices of white maize remained stable in May, those of red beans declined

Cereal production in 2016 anticipated to recover from last year’s drought-reduced level

Planting of the main 2016 “de primera” season, mostly maize and rice, is underway, although somewhat later than normal. With rainfall levels below average in May, most likely still an impact of the recent strong El Niño event, which is now dissipating, the Government encouraged farmers to delay plantings until the beginning of June. Generally, improved rainfall in the first dekad of June favoured planting activity, with the exception of southern regions of the country where latest remote sensing data indicates that dry conditions still linger. Preliminary information points to a normal level of sowings should the favourable conditions continue. The provision by the Government, of subsidized credits and inputs, also benefited the start of the first season.

Official forecasts, assuming a return to generally normal weather conditions throughout the growing season, point to a strong recovery in cereal production in 2016 compared to last year’s drought‑reduced level, resting entirely on an expected increase in maize production. Total cereal production is forecast to reach 678 000 tonnes (paddy equivalent), close to the five‑year average.

Cereal imports forecast to decline in 2016/17 marketing year (July/June)

Cereal imports in the 2016/17 marketing year (July/June) are forecast to decline sharply from last year’s record level, reflecting the positive outlook for 2016 cereal production. The bulk of the decline stems from lower maize imports for the 2016 marketing year (September/August) which are forecast to reach 490 000 tonnes, almost 6 percent down year-on-year.

Prices of white maize remained stable in May, those of red beans declined

Wholesale white maize prices remained relatively unchanged and moderately above their levels in May last year reflecting seasonal trends. A continued flow of imports and good prospects for the main “de primera” season have prevented strong price increases.

Prices for red beans, a major staple, declined in May, remaining generally low, as imports and supplies from the 2015 harvests continued to supply the markets.













Relevant links:
From GIEWS:
 Food Price Data and Analysis Tool
 Earth Observation Indicators
 Maps
 Seasonal Indicators
 Vegetation Indicators
 Precipitation Indicators
 Graphs & Data
 NDVI & Precipitation
 Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM) Reports & Special Alerts: 1999
From FAO:
 FAO Country Profiles

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