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Country Briefs

  Honduras

Reference Date: 16-November-2016

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  1. Cereal production in 2016 anticipated to recover from last year’s drought-reduced level

  2. Cereal imports forecast to decline sharply in 2016/17 marketing year (July/June)

  3. Prices of white maize and beans strongly declined in October

Cereal production in 2016 anticipated to recover from last year’s drought-reduced level

Cereal production for 2016 is forecast at 608 000 tonnes (paddy equivalent) or 39 percent above last year’s drought reduced level and slightly higher than average. The anticipated recovery in production follows early indications of a good harvest of the main “de primera” (first season) crop, concluded in early October. The favourable prospects for the harvest are supported by the recovery of precipitations and a return to normal sowing levels after two years of El Niño induced dry weather. The provision of subsidized credits and inputs by the Government also benefited the performance of the first season crops. Planting of the second season crops is concluded and prospects are also favourable as weather conditions remained generally good and the Government continued with the provision of seeds and fertilizers. Aggregate maize production (“de primera” and second season), is anticipated to increase some 49 percent from last year and to be slightly above average. Rice production is anticipated to moderately increase, since the secondary crop, harvested in May, was still impacted by the dry conditions at the beginning of the year. However, this forecast may be revised depending on the results of the main harvest which concluded in October.

Cereal imports forecast to decline sharply in 2016/17 marketing year

Cereal imports in the 2016/17 marketing year (September/August) are forecast to decline sharply from last year’s record level, reflecting the positive outlook for the 2016 cereal production. The bulk of the decline stems from lower maize imports for the 2016 marketing year which are forecast to reach 490 000 tonnes, almost 6 percent down year-on-year.

Prices of white maize and beans strongly declined in October

White maize prices continued the downward trend of previous months and declined by 22 percent in October, as ample supplies from the main “de primera” cereal season harvest, estimated to have strongly recovered from the last year’s drought‑reduced level, continued to pressure prices downward.

Prices of beans declined in October with the conclusion of the good secondary season harvest and were some 34 percent below year‑earlier levels.