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Country Briefs

  Honduras

Reference Date: 19-May-2017

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  1. Cereal production in 2017 officially forecast to increase strongly

  2. Cereal imports forecast to decline in 2016/17 marketing year

  3. Prices of white maize seasonally increased, those of red beans remained stable in April

Cereal production in 2017 officially forecast to increase strongly

Planting of the main 2017 cereal season will begin from the end of May. Initial official forecasts point to a 7 percent increase from last year to 379 000 tonnes. The forecast mainly reflects higher sowings of maize driven by early expectations that plantings will return to their historical levels after recent droughts in 2014 through early 2016. However, there is a high level of uncertainty around this forecast as there is a moderate probability that an El Niño event may develop in the June to August period, affecting yields of first season crops and planting conditions for second season crops, which begin in late August. Precipitation forecasts made in April point to a moderate probability of rainfall deficits from the June to August period in the north of the country and in the Gulf of Fonseca area, with normal probabilities for other regions.

Cereal imports forecast to decline in 2016/17 marketing year

Cereal imports in the 2016/17 marketing year (September/August) are forecast to decline from last year’s record level reflecting the good outputs of the 2016 cereal production. The bulk of the decline stems from lower maize imports for the 2016 marketing year which are forecast to reach 570 000 tonnes, almost 9 percent down year-on-year. However, at this level, imports will remain above the five-year average reflecting strong demand from the feed sector.

Prices of white maize seasonally increased, those of red beans remained stable in April

In April, white maize prices seasonally increased by nearly 2 percent but were some 30 percent down from last year as a result of the good output in 2016. Prices of staple red beans remained stable in April and were some 11 percent lower than a year earlier, reflecting ample supplies from the good 2016 crop.