Reference Date: 25-February-2013
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FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
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Early forecast of winter crops for cereal production in 2013 are largely favourable
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Cereal production in 2012 sharply reduced by drought
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Wheat imports in 2012/13 (July/June) to increase significantly
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Although wheat flour prices increased slightly, the worst impact of the drought is on rural farmers
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Early forecast of winter crops for cereal production in 2013 are largely favourable
Plating of winter crops has been completed in November last year. Winter crops account on average for about 40 percent of the total cereal production. The planting area under cereals, mainly wheat, has increased by 10 percent compared to last year. By official information it is around 400 000 hectares, including 325 000 hectares of wheat, 50 000 hectares of barley and 25 000 hectares rape. The remote system shows that sufficient soil moisture and vegetation level are largely favourable for winter crops at this stage.
Cereal production in 2012 sharply reduced by drought
The total cereal production in 2012 has sharply decreased due to very poor weather conditions in particular hot temperature and drought in summer. By official information, around 90 percent of the country’s farmland has been declared affected by drought. The drought has exacerbated problems associated with the deterioration of irrigation infrastructure. As a result, in 2012 average yields of main agricultural crops have been recorded significantly down their five-year average level. It is estimated that the wheat 2012 output is around 480 000 tonnes, a decline of 40 percent from the previous year’s good level. The 2012 maize output is estimated down by around 30 percent from last year’s level due to both low yields and significant crop losses. The aggregate cereal production is put at some 1.7 million tones or 31 percent down on the bumper harvest of 2011.
Wheat imports in 2012/13 (July/June) to increase significantly
As a result of significant declines in cereal production, in particular wheat last year, import requirements are expected to increase significantly or by almost six times. It is expected that imports of wheat will reach 55 0000 tonnes or 84 percent of the total cereal imports. Adequate carryover wheat stocks from last year’s good harvest and high level of imports are likely to make up for most of the production deficit. The country has been exporting maize in recent years but official statements indicate a suspension of exports in marketing year 2012/13 (July/June).
Although wheat flour prices increased slightly, the worst impact of the drought is on rural farmers
In spite of the sharply reduced 2012 cereal production, retail prices of wheat flour increased moderately on yearly basis mainly due to state price regulation and interventions. The worst impact of the drought is on rural farmers, in particular fodder availability and animal conditions, mainly in central and southern areas. Since around 90 percent of the livestock is owned by small farmers, it is one of the key components of rural households’ food security, providing nutrition and cash income. The negative impact of fodder shortages was somehow offset by Government measures to rural farmers including the provision of agricultural inputs - such as seeds and fertilizers - to the affected vulnerable population. The country has also received assistance from the international community to support its agricultural rehabilitation efforts.