Reference Date: 05-June-2013
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FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
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Maize production is expected to recover in 2013
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Coffee leaf rust affects incomes in rural areas
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Cereal imports increase slightly in 2012/13 (July/June)
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Mixed price trends for maize and beans
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Maize production is expected to recover in 2013
Sowing of the 2013 main maize crop season is ongoing under favourable rainfall conditions. The current high level of prices is expected to encourage farmers to increase the maize area planted from last year and assuming normal weather during the remaining of the season, yields are expected to recover from the reduced levels of the previous year. Early forecasts point to a 2013 aggregate maize production of 530 000 tonnes or almost 13 percent higher than in 2012 and slightly above the five-year average. Official estimates put the 2012 aggregate cereal output (mainly maize and rice) at close to 1 million tonnes, a decline of 10 percent from the previous year. Production of maize was adversely affected by lower than normal rainfall during the main and second cereal seasons that resulted in reductions of both plantings and yields. By contrast, rice production increased by 4 percent as a significant portion of the crop is grown under irrigation.
Coffee leaf rust affects incomes in rural areas
Coffee production was severely affected by the coffee leaf rust during the 2012/13 (November/March) season. About 40 percent of the total area cultivated was affected and production is officially estimated to have declined by 12 percent from the previous season to 70 380 tonnes. Forecasts for the 2013/14 season point to even greater losses as a result of the number of plantations which will need to be eliminated in order to control the spread of the leaf rust.
Like in the rest of Central America, the coffee sector represents one of the major sources of employment in rural areas and of income for small farmers. In order to reduce the impact of reduced incomes on food security, the Ministry of Agriculture is distributing leaf rust resistant coffee varieties to replant areas affected, as well as providing training on crop management practices. The Government is also providing access to subsidized credit through the local banking system so that producers can recover their plantations in the 2013/14 season.
Cereal imports increase slightly in 2012/13 (July/June)
Based on official estimates until March 2013, imports of cereals in 2012/13 marketing year (July/June) are forecast to marginally increase from their levels of last year to 394 000 tonnes. Imports of maize and wheat are projected higher, while those of rice are expected to remain stable.
Mixed price trends for maize and beans
Average wholesale prices for white maize strengthened somewhat in May continuing their increasing trend from November reflecting seasonal pressures that will last until the next harvest in August. Prices are almost 30 percent higher from a year earlier due to the low production obtained in 2012. By contrast, bean prices—the second most important staple in the country—continue to decline as a result of a higher than expected production in the 2012/13 main bean growing season, which ended in April, coupled with reduced exports. In May bean prices declined 8 percent from a month ago and almost 17 percent from the same period last year.