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Reference Date: 24-November-2015

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  1. Cereal production of 2015 anticipated to decline for a second year

  2. Cereal exports forecast to decline to an almost seven-year low for 2015/16 marketing year

  3. Wheat flour and rice prices stable in November

Cereal production of 2015 anticipated to decline for a second year

Cereal production has been preliminarily estimated at 3.3 million tonnes (paddy equivalent) for 2015. At this level, cereal output is some 6 percent below last year and 12 percent below the country’s five-year average. The decline in production reflects the sharp drop in wheat output as sowings have been declining for two consecutive years driven by low regional and international prices and a slowdown in export demand. Preliminary forecasts put the 2015 wheat harvest at 950 000 tonnes, almost 14 percent less than last year. However, at this level, wheat output is more than sufficient to meet domestic utilization and allow for the excess to be exported. Maize output for 2015 has been preliminarily estimated to decline by 10 percent from last year and reach 509 000 tonnes, just 2 percent below the country’s five-year average. The drop in maize output is also a reflection of a reduction in sowings due to low regional and international prices.

Sowing of the 2016 maize crop is almost concluded. While no official data exists with respect to area sown, expectations are that the area planted will continue to decline reflecting the prevailing low prices and ample stocks, both domestically and in major regional exporters, such as Brazil and Argentina. The sowing period has been undergoing under unusually dry conditions, particularly in the southeast of the country. However, precipitations have been close to average in most of the country.

Cereal exports forecast to decline to an almost seven-year low for 2015/16 marketing year

Total cereal exports in the 2015/16 marketing year (January/December) are preliminarily forecast at almost 1.6 million tonnes, their lowest level in almost seven years. The decline in exports mainly reflects lower wheat exports which are forecast at sharply reduced levels. However, maize exports are also expected to strongly decline due to strong regional competition.

Wheat flour and rice prices stable in November

Domestic prices of wheat flour remained unchanged in November, but remained above last year’s level reflecting the anticipated drop in this year’s output and the depreciating currency.

Rice prices were also unchanged in November, but were below last year’s level reflecting the recovery of this year’s production from last year’s lower level.









Relevant links:
From GIEWS:
 Food Price Data and Analysis Tool
 Earth Observation Indicators
 Maps
 Seasonal Indicators
 Vegetation Indicators
 Precipitation Indicators
 Graphs & Data
 NDVI & Precipitation
From FAO:
 FAO Country Profiles

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