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Reference Date: 23-August-2016

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  1. Cereal production in 2016 forecast close to last year’s level

  2. Cereal exports forecast to increase in 2016/17 marketing year

  3. Wheat flour and rice prices stable in July, rice prices higher than a year earlier

Cereal production in 2016 forecast close to last year’s level

Cereal production in 2016 is forecast at close to 3.4 million tonnes, moderately below last year’s level and for a second consecutive year below the five‑year average. The below‑average harvests mainly reflect reduced maize and wheat plantings in the past two years as a result of low market prices. Maize production in 2016 has been preliminarily estimated at 495 000 tonnes, 3 percent above last year’s level but below the five‑year average. Maize plantings in 2016 were estimated at 88 000 hectares, 6 percent up from 2015, but well below the average of about 120 000 hectares in recent years as a result of low market prices and high domestic availabilities. Rice production in 2016 is estimated at 1.3 million tonnes (paddy), 7 percent down from last year. The decline mainly reflects excessive rainfall at the beginning of the season, which adversely impacted the crop. Planting of the 2016 wheat crop is virtually concluded. Wheat production for 2016 is forecast to increase moderately by 4 percent, as plantings are estimated to have remained close to last year’s level.

Cereal exports forecast to increase in 2016/17 marketing year

Total cereal exports in the 2016/17 marketing year (January/December) are preliminarily forecast at almost 1.8 million tonnes, a sharp increase from last year’s low level, but still below the five‑year average. The increase in exports mainly reflects anticipated higher rice and wheat sales during the marketing year.

Wheat flour and rice prices stable in July, rice prices higher than a year earlier

Domestic prices of wheat flour remained unchanged in July and from the same month last year, reflecting ample carryover stocks from the 2015 crop.

Rice prices in July were unchanged, but were 20 percent above their level from a year earlier. Prices are being supported by this year’s reduced output and high export demand.









Relevant links:
From GIEWS:
 Food Price Data and Analysis Tool
 Earth Observation Indicators
 Maps
 Seasonal Indicators
 Vegetation Indicators
 Precipitation Indicators
 Graphs & Data
 NDVI & Precipitation
From FAO:
 FAO Country Profiles

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