Reference Date: 01-September-2025

Cereal production estimated in 2025 above‑average level due to favourable weather conditions

Winter cereal harvest was completed in June 2025 and production is estimated at 1.7 million tonnes, about 18 percent above the five‑year average. Despite the early season dry weather conditions between October and November 2024, rainfall improved since January 2025 and the season concluded with above‑average precipitation amounts between April and May 2025. Weather conditions have been particularly favourable in key producing provinces of Beja, Bizerte, Jendouba, Kairouan, Le Kef and Siliana, where yields are estimated at above‑average levels.

Wheat import requirements forecast at below‑average level in 2025

Wheat import requirements in the 2025/26 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at about 2 million tonnes, around 4 percent below the average, largely driven by the anticipated abundant harvest in 2025. Generally, wheat import volumes are regulated by the government and sold at subsidized prices to guarantee domestic supply availability at affordable prices.

Food inflation continues to ease in 2025

Food inflation eased in 2024 and 2025, reaching about 6 percent in July 2025. The year‑on‑year increase in July was driven by higher prices of fresh vegetables, ovine meat and fresh fruits, up 25.3, 19.1 and 15.1 percent, respectively. While prices of edible oil and egg fell by about 23 and 5 percent, respectively.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:

FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/.

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/.

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/.

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .