The previous (June 2008) issue of Food Outlook foresaw world prices of major agricultural commodities declining from the record levels they had just reached, amidst favourable prospects for global supplies. Since then, prices have indeed fallen, but farther and faster than can be explained through production gains alone. Underlying the price slide, in excess of 50 percent from their recent peaks, are other important factors, including the financial crisis, the...

All agricultural commodities covered in this report are of critical importance to global food and feed markets. They constitute much of the world’s food consumption, generate income to farmers and represent the largest portion of food import expenditures across the world. The analysis in the report puts in perspective market developments in recent months with a view to providing some insights into how the outlook might unfold for the commodities...

Agricultural commodity prices rose sharply in 2006 and, in some cases, are soaring at an even faster pace this year. The FAO food price index rose by 9 percent in 2006 compared to the previous year. In September 2007 it stood at 172 points, representing a year-on-year jump in value of roughly 37 percent. The surge in prices has been led primarily by dairy and grains, but prices of other...

Based on FAO’s latest analysis, global expenditures on imported foodstuffs look set to surpass US$400 billion in 2007, almost 5 percent above the record of the previous year. The bulk of the increase can be levelled against rising prices of imported coarse grains and vegetable oils, the commodity groups which feature most heavily in biofuel production. Import bills for these commodities are forecast to rise by as much as 13...

As 2006 draws to an end, the most prominent feature of the food and feed markets in 2006 has been the surge in the prices of cereals, in particular wheat and maize, which, by November, had reached levels not seen for a decade. Poor harvests in key producing countries and a fast growing demand for biofuel production have been the main drivers of the grain markets. Supply constraints also have dominated...

The recent months saw commodity markets as a whole becoming more volatile with a steady upward trend in prices. In agricultural markets, some important food and feed commodities gained on supply tightness and stronger demand while in the energy complex and metals, the tighter supply and demand balance resulted in a steep increase in prices. Amid political uncertainties and surging energy prices, agricultural markets over the past year have also...

FAO latest forecast for the 2005 world cereal output has been raised considerably since the September report to 2 005 million tonnes, 2.4 percent lower than last year’s record crop. Cereal crops have been satisfactory in most regions, except parts of Africa and South America. Planting of the 2006 cereal crop is underway in the main producing regions under generally favourable conditions so far. However, prospects are uncertain in Southern...

FAO’s forecast of the 2005 world cereal output has been revised slightly downward since the previous report in June. Although lower than the record of 2004, the global cereal crop is still expected to be above the average of the past five years. Output of wheat and coarse grains is set to decline but that of rice is forecast to reach a record high. Most of the anticipated decrease in...

Prospects for the 2005 global cereal crop remain favourable. Latest production forecasts indicate a decline from the record output of 2004 but not as large as anticipated earlier. FAO’s first forecast of world cereal trade in the 2005/06 marketing season points to a slight decrease from the revised 2004/05 level, mainly due to lower wheat import demand. Global cereal utilization is expected to increase somewhat in 2005/06, which coupled...

Another good world cereal crop is forecast in 2005, although lower than the exceptional harvest in 2004. Dry weather in several Asian countries since late last year has negatively impacted the 2004 secondary paddy crop season, which is nearing its conclusion. Nevertheless, the 2004 aggregate rice production is still estimated to be the second highest on record. World cereal stocks at the end of crop seasons ending in 2005 are...