Reference Date: 14-November-2022

Concerns for production of “2023A” season crops due to below‑average rains and low application of fertilizers

The 2022 (September‑November) “short rainy season” was characterized by a substantially delayed onset of rains, which established in mid‑October over most cropping areas. The late onset of seasonal rains delayed planting of “2023A” season crops, to be harvested from December and accounting for about 35 percent of the aggregate crop output, and affected establishment and development of early planted crops. As a result, vegetation condition is currently at below‑average levels.

According to the latest weather forecast by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development’s (IGAD) Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC), precipitation amounts during the remainder of the rainy season are expected to be below average, with a likely negative impact on yields. In addition, yields are likely to be constrained by a low application of fertilizers due to their high prices. The increasing price trend began in 2021 and was exacerbated since early 2022 by the ripple effects of the war in Ukraine on the global supply of fertilizers. In 2020, the country imported around 13 percent of fertilizers directly from the Russian Federation and Ukraine, and 60 percent from the United Republic of Tanzania.

Measures to curb spread of Rift Valley Fever outbreak among ruminants affecting incomes from livestock rearing activities

An outbreak of Rift Valley Fever (RVF) among ruminants (cattle, goats and sheep), first detected in April 2022 in Kirundo and Ngozi provinces near the border with Rwanda, subsequently spread to Kayanza, Karusi, Cibitoke, Bujumbura, Rumonge and Makamba provinces in May.

In response to the outbreak, the Ministry of Agriculture banned the movement, the sale and the slaughter of ruminants in the affected areas. The measures put in place prevented a further spread of the outbreak, but the closure of livestock markets and the community fear of being infected resulted in lower demand for livestock products and in a decrease in income for farming households owning livestock. To compensate for these losses, households had to fall back on the sale of food crops from the “2022B” season, resulting in an early depletion of stocks.

The start of a vaccination campaign in July resulted in a substantial decline in RVF cases and in September 2022 the resumption of slaughtering activities was announced. However, the reopening of livestock markets is still not complete and livestock restocking activities have yet to resume. As a result, labour opportunities and incomes from livestock husbandry, sales and butchering increased, but remained below average.

Prices of maize and beans higher than year earlier mainly due to high fuel prices

Prices of maize increased by 20‑50 percent between June and October 2022, despite increased market availabilities from the “2022B” season harvest, gathered in June and July and estimated at above‑average levels. Maize prices in October were 40‑55 percent higher than a year earlier, despite adequate domestic availabilities, mainly due to high transport costs owing to high prices of fuel, underpinned by the impact of the war in Ukraine on international prices. Similarly, prices of beans in October were 25‑45 percent higher on a yearly basis.

Food security conditions seasonally deteriorating during lean period between October and December

According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, 1.4 million people (12 percent of the analysed population) are estimated to face severe acute food insecurity in the lean period between October and December 2022. This figure, which includes 1.35 million people in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and 51 000 people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency), is about 17 percent higher than the previous estimate for the post‑harvest period between June and September 2022 and similar to the estimate for the same period in 2021.

The seasonal deterioration of the food security situation between the June‑September post‑harvest period and the October‑December lean season has been more substantial in the eastern Lowland and in the central Humid Plateaus livelihood zones. In these areas, the prevalence of severe acute food insecurity increased from 10 to 15 percent and from 15 to 20 percent, respectively, mainly due to the reduced “2022B” season production of beans, caused by erratic February ‑ May “long ‑ rains”.

Particular concerns exist for the food security situation of 85 000 Internally displaced persons (IDPs), mainly displaced by natural disasters, and for about 87 000 refugees and asylum seekers, predominantly from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which have limited livelihood opportunities and need to rely on humanitarian assistance.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.