Reference Date: 18-October-2022

Cereal production in 2022 forecast at near‑average level

The 2022 third paddy crop, which accounts for about 20 percent of the total annual output, is growing under favourable weather conditions (green areas in ASI map) and is expected to be harvested from November. The 2022 paddy production, including the already harvested first and second crops, is officially forecast at 55.7 million tonnes, up 2.3 percent from 2021 due to area expansions and favourable yield prospects.

The harvest of the 2022 maize crop finalized last September and the production is estimated at a record level of 23 million tonnes. The bumper output reflects above‑average sowings owing to high demand by the poultry industry and favourable weather conditions that, with the use of high‑yielding seed varieties, resulted in slightly above‑average yields.

Cereal import requirements in 2022/23 forecast at near‑average level

Total cereal import requirements in the 2022/23 marketing year (April/March) are forecast at a near‑average level of 12.9 million tonnes. Import requirements of wheat, accounting for the bulk of the country’s cereal imports and used for both food and feed, are projected at an average level of 11.1 million tonnes. For maize, import requirements are forecast at 1.1 million tonnes, slightly above last year’s high level, reflecting the high demand by the poultry industry.

Prices of wheat flour at record levels in August

Domestic prices of wheat flour have increased by 18 percent since November 2021 and were at high levels in August 2022, mostly driven by elevated international export quotations. Domestic prices of rice declined during the first half of 2022 following the main harvest but increased seasonally in July and August. Overall, in August, rice prices were close to their year‑earlier levels.

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