Reference Date: 04-January-2023

Above‑average cereal output estimated in 2022

Harvesting of the 2022 wheat crop was completed in mid‑November and production is estimated at an above‑average level of 1.06 million tonnes due to good yields. The planted area is estimated at an average level, which represents a rebound from the low levels of the previous three years, as farmers responded positively to the high domestic prices at planting time.

The 2022 aggregate cereal production is estimated at 8.2 million tonnes, more than 10 percent above the five‑year average. This is mainly due to an expansion of maize sowings by farmers that experienced losses of soybean crops in the precedent season. With slightly above‑average yields, maize output in 2022 is officially estimated at a well above‑average level of 6.2 million tonnes. By contrast, 2022 paddy production is estimated at 862 000 tonnes, more than 10 percent below the five‑year average, as dry weather conditions at the end of 2021 severely curtailed yields.

Area sown to 2023 maize crop forecast at above‑average level

The 2023 minor season maize crop, which accounts for 5 percent of the annual production, is being harvested. Satellite imagery shows good crop conditions, on account of favourable rains between mid‑September and October. Planting of the 2023 main season maize crop started in January and the area sown is officially forecast to be similar to the high level in 2022, due to the strong international demand. Rainfall amounts are officially forecast to be slightly below the average between January and February 2023, raising concerns for planting operations and crop germination.

The 2023 paddy crop is at vegetative and flowering stages, with generally good crop conditions in the main producing departments of Misiones, Itapúa and Caazapá. The area planted is officially estimated at an average level. However, below‑average precipitation in December 2022 resulted in low water levels in Tebicuary River, which prompted the government to ban the extraction of water for irrigation until further notice.

Exports of cereals in 2022/23 forecast at near‑record level

Cereal exports in the 2022/23 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at 4.6 million tonnes, near the record level registered in 2015/16. The expected large volume of exports reflects the abundant exportable surplus from the bumper maize harvests gathered in 2022.

Prices of yellow maize declined seasonally since August and lower year‑on‑year

Prices of yellow maize have declining since August 2022, reflecting the ample supply from the 2022 main maize crop harvest. As of November 2022, prices were below the 2021 level, when prices surged as the harvest was severely affected by dry weather conditions. Regarding prices of rice, after sustained increases between April and September 2022 due to the 2022 below‑average harvest, they weakened during the following two months. However, prices were still 15 percent higher year‑on‑year in November 2022.

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