Reference Date: 30-March-2023

Above‑average cereal production in 2022 due to favourable weather conditions

According to the findings of the annual FAO Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission (CFSAM), the 2022 aggregate production of sorghum, millet and wheat is estimated at about 7.4 million tonnes, about 45 percent above the output obtained in the previous year and 13 percent above the average of the previous five years.

The 2022 rainy season was characterized by above‑average precipitation amounts and by an overall even temporal distribution, with some localized flooding in August and short dry spells in September and October. Middle and late season rains were generally favourable and benefited crops that were replanted in the areas affected by the floods.

Most agricultural inputs, including fertilizers, herbicides, agricultural machinery and labour, were available, but at very high prices, which increased significantly production costs.

Production of wheat, harvested in March 2023, is estimated at about 476 000 tonnes, about 30 percent below the previous year’s average output, reflecting reduced plantings in favour of legumes and spices.

Cereal prices at very high levels

Prices of sorghum and millet declined by 20–45 percent between October and December 2022 with the commercialization of the newly harvested 2022 crops. Subsequently, prices of sorghum seasonally increased by 5‑20 percent between December 2022 and February 2023, while prices of millet followed mixed trends. In February 2023, prices of coarse grains were up to twice their already elevated year‑earlier values.

Prices of imported wheat, mainly consumed in urban areas, declined in the capital, Khartoum, by about 20 percent between August 2022 and February 2023 as prices dropped on the international market. In February 2023, prices of imported wheat in Khartoum were about 10 percent below the elevated values of one year earlier.

The high level of food prices is mainly due to the continuous depreciation of the national currency and high costs of production due to soaring prices of agricultural inputs.

Critical food security situation due to multiple shocks

According to the results of the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, about 7.74 million people (16 percent of the analysed population) were estimated to be severely acutely food insecure (IPC Phase 3 [Crisis] and Phase 4 [Emergency]) between October 2022 and February 2023. This figure includes about 6.19 million people in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and 1.55 million in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) levels of acute food insecurity and it is about 30 percent higher on a yearly basis.

The main drivers are macroeconomic challenges resulting in rampant food and non‑food inflation, and the escalation of intercommunal violence, mainly in Greater Darfur and Greater Kordofan regions, and in Kassala State.

The highest prevalence of food insecurity is reported in Kassala, Blue Nile, Central, West and North Darfur states. In these areas, between 20 and 33 percent of the population is estimated to be severely acutely food insecure. In addition, about 13 percent of the population of Khartoum State is estimated to face severe acute food insecurity, mainly as a consequence of significant food access constraints for market‑dependent urban households.

Humanitarian needs are particularly high for 3.7 million Internally displaced persons (IDPs) and for 1.1 million refugees, mainly from South Sudan, Eritrea, the Syrian Arab Republic and Ethiopia.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Dashed lines on the maps represent approximate borderlines for which there may not yet be full agreement. The final boundary between the Republic of the Sudan and the Republic of South Sudan has not yet been determined. The final status of the Abyei area is not yet determined.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS)
https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool
https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring
https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC)
https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .