Reference Date: 23-December-2022

Paddy production in 2022 estimated below average due to low plantings

The harvest of the 2022 main paddy crop concluded in mid‑October and production is estimated at a below‑average level. This is due to a contraction in plantings, driven by low prices at planting time, which resulted from ample supplies from the bumper harvests obtained in 2020 and 2021. The 2022 aggregate paddy production, including the below‑average output of the minor crop harvested in the second quarter of 2022, is estimated at 2.5 million tonnes, nearly 10 percent below the average.

The 2022 maize output is estimated at a above‑average level of 1.5 million tonnes, reflecting large sowings with the main season crop, harvested during the third quarter of the year.

Minor 2023 paddy and maize crops at vegetative stages under favourable conditions

The 2023 minor season paddy and maize crops are at vegetative and flowering stages. According to satellite imagery, growing conditions are generally favourable. Rainfall amounts in January are forecast at above‑average levels over the key producing costal and central regions, which could constrain yield potential.

High cereal import requirements expected in 2022

About 85 percent of the country’s cereal consumption needs are usually covered by imports. Cereal import requirements in the 2022 marketing year (January/December) are expected at a high level of 8.5 million tonnes, including 6.1 million tonnes of maize and 2 million tonnes of wheat. The above‑average import requirements reflect the strong demand of maize by the feed sector and wheat for human consumption.

Cereal prices well above year‑earlier levels in November 2022

Prices of wheat flour have been generally on the rise since June 2021, in line with the increasing export prices of Canada, the United States of America and Argentina, the country’s key providers. As of November 2022, prices were nearly 50 percent higher year‑on‑year. Prices of yellow maize declined since August 2022 due to the improved market supply following the bumper main season harvest. However, prices remained 20 percent above their values a year ago due to the sharp increases which occurred during the first half of 2022, supported by rising international prices and high production costs. Prices of rice rose steadily throughout 2022, except for a short‑lived seasonal decline in June, as prospects for a below‑average production provided upward pressure on prices. In November 2022, prices were 70 percent higher than one year before, when prices were at very low levels as a result of the ample supply from the 2020 and 2021 bumper harvests.

Overall, in November 2022, prices of most food items were higher than a year earlier, as indicated by the official annual inflation rate of food and non‑alcoholic beverages, estimated at 27 percent.

Temporary legal status granted to 1.5 million migrants to facilitate integration

The country hosts a high number of refugees and migrants as well as Internally displace people (IDP). Official estimates point to an increase in internal displacement in 2022, with about 152 000 IDPs up to November 2022 , this is more than 15 percent above the five‑year average and 20 percent higher year‑on‑year. According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), the number of people in need of humanitarian assistance is forecast at 7.7 million in 2023 , this includes refugees and migrants as well as Colombians affected by internal conflict or natural disasters. As end‑November 2022, in order to improve the livelihoods of migrants and enable their integration in the Colombian society, the government granted 1.5 million resident permits for a temporary period of ten years.

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