Reference Date: 10-November-2021

Paddy output forecast close to average in 2021

Harvesting of the 2021 main (mostly rainfed) paddy crop, accounting for about 70 percent of annual output, started in early October in the northern region and central plains and will finalize next January in southern parts of the country. Prospects for this crop were boosted by generally favourable weather conditions prevailing between May and August in the main producing northern and northeastern parts of the country, with adequate water supplies also favouring cultivation in (mostly) irrigated central plains. However, floods across numerous provinces between September and October negatively affected main crops just as they were reaching the harvest stage. Pending assessments of damages incurred and considering the scope for some of these losses to be recovered through the secondary (irrigated) crop, to be planted from next January, total paddy production in 2021 is forecast at an average level of 31.6 million tonnes.

The 2021 main maize crop was harvested between July and September, while the secondary crop is growing under generally favourable weather conditions and will be harvested next February. The aggregate 2020 maize production is forecast at an average level of 4.8 million tonnes. The total area planted in 2021 was below average as farmers switched maize land to more profitable sugarcane and cassava crops. Overall, yields are forecast above the average due to generally favourable weather conditions.

Rice exports in 2021 barely improved

In calendar year 2021, rice exports are forecast at 6.0 million tonnes, close to the 2020 depressed level, due to strong competition with other suppliers and demand disruptions caused by high shipping costs.

Prices of rice steadily decreased since February 2021

Domestic prices of rice have steadily decreased since February 2021 and, last September, they were about 20 percent below their year‑earlier levels due to improved local availabilities and weak demand for export.

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