Reference Date: 22-November-2022

Cereal production in 2022 forecast slightly above average

Harvesting of the 2022 main paddy crop, which accounts for about 60 percent of the annual production, started in July and will finalize by December. Crop conditions have been favourable during the season (ASI map), reflecting adequate June‑October monsoon rainfall amounts and above‑average irrigation water supplies. In addition to other ongoing public assistance schemes, the government scaled up the existing fertilizer subsidy programme in order to help offset the negative effects of the high prices of agricultural chemicals. Localized crop losses were caused by heavy rainfall, strong winds and floods brought by typhoon Noru in late September and by typhoon Nalgae in late October over parts of Central Luzon, BARMM and Western Visayas regions. Farmers are currently planting the secondary paddy crop to be harvested next year. The area planted is expected at an above‑average level, underpinned by official assistance programmes. Overall, the aggregate 2022 paddy output is preliminarily forecast at 20 million tonnes, close to the 2021 level and about 3 percent above the five‑year average.

The 2022 main maize crop was harvested last September and the production is officially estimated at 3.9 million tonnes, slightly above the average, due to favourable weather conditions. Overall, the aggregate 2022 maize output, including the 2022 secondary crop for harvest next year, is preliminarily forecast at 8.3 million tonnes, 4 percent above the five‑year average.

Cereal import requirements forecast at slightly above‑average levels in 2022/23 marketing year (July/June)

Cereal import requirements in the 2022/23 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at 10 million tonnes, slightly above the five‑year average. Imports of wheat are anticipated at 6.3 million tonnes, close to the average level due to sustained demand of high quality wheat for milling and low quality wheat for feed. Imports of rice in the 2023 calendar year are expected at 3 million tonnes, 9 percent below the 2022 level. Maize imports are forecast at 800 000 tonnes, considerably above the five‑year average, due to strong demand by the feed industry.

Domestic maize prices at high levels in 2022 due to strong demand for feed

Domestic prices of white maize and yellow flour have generally increased since early 2021 and reached record levels in September 2022, supported by the strong demand from the feed industry.

Domestic prices of regular and well‑milled rice have been steadily increasing since January 2022 and in September they were above their year‑earlier levels mainly due to the elevated costs of agricultural inputs and fuel.

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