Reference Date: 14-October-2022

Main season 2022 maize output preliminarily anticipated at near‑average level

The harvest of the 2022 main season maize crop is ongoing despite some delays in the northern region as well as in the key producing department of Olancho due to above‑average rainfall amounts during the last week of September. Crop conditions have been generally favourable during the season due to favourable rains between May and September, which have offset the negative effect of low availabilities of agricultural inputs. As a result, production of the 2022 main maize crop is expected at a near‑average level.

Planting operations of the 2022 minor season maize crop will start after the completion of the main crop harvest. Weather forecasts point to above‑average rainfall amounts in the October‑December period, raising prospects for maize yields. In the case of beans, which are more susceptible to the impact of excessive moisture, a close monitoring of pest infestations is required. As the Atlantic hurricane season will last until the end of November, there is still risk that torrential rains and strong winds could negatively affect crops.

Fertilizer imports, mostly from the Russian Federation, the United States of America and Canada, during the first seven months of 2022 were 16 percent lower compared to the same period of the previous three years. As of end‑September, prices of fertilizers were on average 80 percent above those a year earlier in the capital, Tegucigalpa. The decline in imports as well as the high prices of fertilizers have constrained domestic market availabilities and access.

Cereal import requirements expected at high levels in 2022/23 marketing year

Cereal import requirements in the 2022/23 marketing year (September/August) are expected at an above‑average level of 1.24 million tonnes. The high needs reflect the increasing consumption of wheat and rice in line with population growth and sustained demand for yellow maize by the feed industry.

Prices of staple maize, beans and rice higher than year earlier in September

Prices of white maize and black beans declined in August and September, as the ongoing harvest improved market supplies. However, as of September, prices of maize and beans were 45 and 30 percent, respectively, above their year‑earlier levels. The level of prices reflects the high costs of production and transportation. Prices of rice also weakened in the August‑September period, but remained about 20 percent up from a year earlier due to the sharp increases occurred in the previous months which followed the rising prices in the United States of America, the country’s main rice supplier.

High food prices affect purchasing power of most vulnerable households

According to the most recent Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, the population in acute food insecurity (classified under IPC Phase 3 [Crisis] or above) during the lean season (between June and August 2022) was estimated at 2.6 million, nearly one‑quarter of the total population. However, the analysis was carried out in January 2022 and it did not take into account the rippling effects of high international prices of food and energy on the domestic food security situation.

The annual food inflation rate was estimated at 16 percent in September and high prices are diminishing the purchasing power of the most vulnerable households, limiting their access to food. However, the food security situation is expected to improve during the last quarter of the year, as food stocks held by households for their own consumption are likely to increase with the maize harvests. In addition, harvesting operations of cash crops, such as coffee and sugarcane, also take place during the last months of the year, generating income opportunities for agricultural labourers that rely on daily wages.

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